Alex Lawson, China, Peter Navarro discussed on The Takeaway

The Takeaway
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To help us break down the effects of the trump administration eight policy with China I'm joined by Alex Lawson editor at large at law three sixty Alex welcome back to the show thank you so much Zina so we just you heard our conversation with Peter Navarro and about the trump administration's policy on tariffs any specific points that you'd like to respond to clarify he I thought it was interesting that when you pressed him about the the fact that manufacturing has contracted to its lowest point in just about a decade he quickly pivoted to placing blame on the Federal Reserve and it's you know reluctance to do a rate cut that's a fair enough point I suppose but I think it's worth noting that in that study that you sited to him specifically the actual manufacturers who were interviewed for it cited the tariffs and the you know there's the proliferation of those tears as a reason for why they have contracted at their output is lower than it is so I mean it's not as though we can just glide pass this pretend it's not having an effect it is the administration has tried to sort of blunt the affect the tariffs in choosing which which products they apply to and rolling them out in a strategic way but it's very clear that it's having an impact so we're heading into talks on Thursday. US and China are back at the negotiating table are you expecting anything different to come out of these talks it's tough to see okay I mean I we've we've been at this for just about two years now and all that there is to show for it is you know a tariff on basically every single US it's going to China and about seventy percent of Chinese products coming in coming into the US with tariffs and at every stage it's been you know couple steps forward and maybe a couple of steps back back they were sort of sounding optimistic heading into this round but I've until some concrete progress is made I don't I think that there is any reason to think that it actually will both governments have made clear that they are willing to sort of go to the hilt on Tariffs and even going beyond and tariffs in terms of trade actions which which we can talk about a little bit if you like well I wanted to get to trade in a minute but we the president postponed the tariffs that were supposed to go into right right now before the holidays but are we expecting Christmas tariffs and could that turn the tide and change public opinion about what's happening that's sort of the the big that that that that's the next big looming monolith here which is that there th there's a tariff hike that's supposed to go into effect on October fifteenth that those are existing offs that are going to go for my belief twenty five percent to thirty percent but but but the next thing that's really looming is this December fifteenth tariff hit that you're talking about and this is sort of the land this is like really been considered the third rail of this entire thing because as I indicated before the US has has for the most part tried to just keep tariffs applied like industrial goods things that are used to make other things they've tried they've tried their best to avoid them on consumer products with a few exceptions but the ones that are supposed to take place in December without some other delay which could happen are things like laptops televisions toys clothing things that you and I by that we are therefore more likely to feel the price effects of until now you know when you're a little bit up the supply chain on some piece of steel that's us is to make some other thing you know businesses can hide the ball a little bit in terms of how they're raising prices but when it gets down to actual expensive consumer goods that you and I I definitely possible that the prices could be going up significantly we asked Peter Navarro about the the trump administration's authorization to billions of dollars in aid eight for us farmers that are apparently you know they're needing this after the tariff and how well is that aid package working out for farmers and how is it playing out politically yeah it's important to note that that came about because it's not just the US tariffs that exist in isolation China has responded in kind and that has an outside affects effect on the agricultural sector so just putting that out there the sort of reports that you hear from farm country are somewhat scattershot where it's like Whoa certainly appreciate that the government is going to give us money to blunt the effect of of this trade skirmish they've gotten into but like any government probe program there are there are reports that stuff is quite getting there on time there's a long bureaucratic process to go through there was a report I believe in Bloomberg that the US is paid something like a million dollars in interest for late payments on these things because it's taking time to filter down and almost to a person even the the the farmers were interviewed appreciate the help almost to a person they almost always say this is nice but we would much rather not have to like depend on the government for payments that may or may not come at later defined date we will just able to trade as we were before and that is we're not really close to that happening anytime soon we also asked Peter Navarro about this assist the economy's been strong for the past few years but we have a slowing bond market economists are warning of the risk of recession the future partly because of this trade for what could happen to the economy if that happens and if terrorists continue to rise it's very tricky I mean you never did the the sort of economist Party China's like tariffs will never cause a recession but it definitely not going to help you and I think it's I mean it's it's pretty clear I mean the sort of advance.

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