Q4 Delivery & Production Forecast (11.11.20)


Is because we finally have critical piece of information that can help inform this forecast and that is gigafactory shanghai production numbers from the china passenger car association so earlier this week we had talked about the model three sales numbers in china for october. But we didn't yet have the production numbers those have now been released by the a and they are very strong. I think even better than the most bullish forecast that. I have seen so october production out of your factory. Shanghai was reported to be twenty two thousand nine hundred and twenty nine model threes so put the context around just how strong that number is. Let's hop into my forecasting spreadsheet. If you haven't this yet just orientate you. Each row is a different period of time and then in each group of columns here. I have production numbers so i have total production fremont production shanghai production and then i break that down to a weekly level and level those production rates on a weekly and daily level are incredibly important. Because sometimes tesla has known downtime. So looking at monthly or quarterly production doesn't really give us the full picture that weekly daily dust and then on the color scheme here gray numbers are known those have been reported by tesla or figured out by us. With high high competence. Orange numbers are also high competence but are based off of reports out of china. Blue numbers are estimates kind of fill in the between the two and then yellow. Our future forecasts are at so getting back to the shanghai numbers. Then if we look tober that twenty two thousand nine hundred twenty nine production number divided over the four point. Four weeks in october yields a weekly production rate of five thousand one hundred seventy eight model threes per week from shanghai. This is much greater than the twenty eight hundred and fifty produced each week over the course of q. Three however if we flip back to september actually got a bit of a hint. That numbers like this. Were on the way from tesla. So total september dessel only produced about twelve thousand two hundred vehicles that was actually down slightly from august and july. But what people may have missed. Is that tesla. Actually had shutdown gigafactory shanghai from september twentieth. To september thirtieth. So if you take those days out tesla actually produced about forty five hundred model threes per week in september over the two point seven production weeks where they weren't shut down so it looked like tesla's kind of leveling off production at about twelve thousand per month but actually took a huge step forward in september in terms of the production rate. We see that then continue into october and even accelerate while the monthly production takes a massive step forward from twelve thousand all the way up to almost twenty three thousand because there was no downtime in october so this production rate almost fifty two hundred per week. October has huge implications for the balance of q four if we even just extrapolate that rate tesla's at now that ends up being sixty eight thousand model threes produced from shanghai in q four their few reasons. We've seen this massive jump in production rate from shanghai first off. They've obviously just ramped up their production rate. One of the ways. They've been able to do that though is by adding another shift to shanghai. Depending on what estimate you're looking at that seems to have added about thirty to fifty percent of production hours from employees so that's filled out the production capacity and then we've also seen tesla star utilizing. The lithium iron phosphate batteries from cat l. And if they were battery constrained before this seems to have done a lot to alleviate that at this level so as far as i know there is not going to be any significant downtime in q. Four but definitely if you have any information on that let me know if there is not and we continue this rate at sixty thousand but tesla has been ramping up production from september through october. So there's no certainty that this production rate is going to hold through the rest of the quarter rather than continuing to increase. We also have a report from tasmanian today. Which has heard from a source that quote the current model three production has now surpassed fifty seven hundred units per week and quote. We've also been talking now for quite a while about how you four could be. The start of production for the shanghai made model. Y the latest. We've heard on that. Is that might actually happen in november so we could even see some production model y contributing to these keefer numbers so if we flip back to the forecasting sheet here and we look at my forecast. I'm gonna actually forecast even a little bit lower than that rumored production rate from tasmanian. I'm gonna project about a three four percent increase for the next couple of months here in shanghai. I think this is relatively conservative. But this could change. If there are periods of downtime or if the model y ramp for some reason impacts the model three production rate but i do think this is pretty reasonable and again hopefully a little bit conservative for shanghai so for november production weekly. I'm at about fifty three hundred and fifty and then for december a couple hundred more about fifty five hundred and fifty. That gets me to you again. About twenty three thousand four november and about twenty four thousand five hundred four december for total q for production out of shanghai at about seventy thousand five hundred vehicles. Now obviously that's pretty high that would be higher than tesla stated production capacity and accused three report which they listed at two hundred and fifty thousand. But we've already seen them beat that production rate throughout the entire month of october if the numbers are accurate that october production rate already analyzes to about two hundred and seventy thousand vehicles so they've already demonstrated rate above that listed capacity for what it's worth if tesla can bump that production capacity up to fifty seven hundred for november and december.

Coming up next