Gabriel, Analyst, Teneo discussed on All Things Considered


Submit to daily temperature checks all these requirements man only the largest of companies have been able to fully reopen on time for most of February and March large swaths of the economy we're just shut down Gabriel will dial is lead China analyst at advisory firm Teneo he says manufacturing is up and running again other sectors like retail tourism restaurants entertainment are coming back a lot more slowly since Chinese consumers are still wary of gathering in groups that's why China broke its economic growth streak today the last time it admitted its economy shrunk was in nineteen seventy six though quarterly GDP wasn't released then so now China faces a big decision is it stimulate its economy by making credit cheaper and leading companies take on more debt that could jump start job creation but it risks destabilising its financial system and leading to economic waste here's Michael Pettus a finance professor at Beijing's Peking university the real impact of Kobe is not in lower GDP growth but in a big transfer of GDP growth from good girls like retail consumption to Bad Girls things like redundant and environmentally harmful infrastructure projects today's negative GDP figures mean China's ruling Communist Party might have to abandon an important political milestone it aims to double its annual GDP between two thousand and ten and two thousand twenty theoretically that's still possible but they would have to unleash so much school spending on such a big surge in debt I think even they agree that it makes no sense whatever China does the rest of the world is watching closely they too must reconcile in with the painful economic fallout of cove in nineteen I'm only saying NPR news and China you're listening and.

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