Mohammed, Civic Center, Anaheim discussed on Mottek on Money


California. And it continues to blow with gusts up to forty miles per hour in the valley, and maybe fifty five mile per hour gusts in some of the areas in our past. And up into the mountains. Fifty six degrees right now, the Civic Center in Anaheim is fifty eight degrees and in Long Beach. It's fifty nine degrees in this. Wind is going to hang out we have wind advisory in effect through the day and early evening hours before it finally expires. But even after that, the wind will still be with us for some little while let's get back now to more Motech on money. A bunny continues as Frank Motech continuing my conversation with Dr Mohamed Al Oriente economic advisor, Ali aliens, former pimco, CEO Newport Beach and in the face of all the market vault. Selvi we've been talking about here. We're hearing a lot of commentary about the possibility of recession and worries about a bear market for twenty nineteen heading into the new year. Mohammed what's your outlook on the economy? So I don't see a recession in the baseline a recession is a risk scenario that has been heightened by the slowing economies of European China. And by the risk of bad market technicals contaminating economics, but that's a whisk. These are whisks the baseline is that we will continue to grow at two and a half to three percent. And let me explain why. Three engines of growth to this economy. The big ones. Consumer companies and the government to consumer is in really good shape. We continue to create lots of jobs and wages are now going up at three percent a year. So from a labor force point of view, the consumer has solid income there is dead. But it, but the consumer has sought income which is very important too is companies all in a good place balance, sheet wise, and there's some signs that business investment will continue to pick up, and then sturdy let's not forget that we have an overlay of government spending. So when I look at the tweet major drivers of growth in the US economy, they are not signaling recession. So in order to get a recession. We need a major policy mistake or a major market accident. But you don't get it based on the economy alone. Where are you putting money now and taking off the table? Let me tell you what I think people should look at when we get these bouts of volatility, and when passive investment has become so popular, you get what's called contagion, which another way of saying good, names and bad names, get treated the same. So it doesn't matter. You know, who you what company you are a passive fund selling it will sell across the board. So people who are familiar with different companies should pay particular attention to those with strong balance sheet. Good cash generation and solid business models, and they will find long-term opportunity in these names because these names are going to be contaminated unduly by what's happening returner environment. And the only thing that have to be ready for is to be able to stomach inevitable volatility. But I think that what we are seeing is more attractive opportunities being created and. People just have to focus on the three characteristics of solid balance sheet, high cash generation and good business models. Mohammed. Thank you very much for this privilege, and for your analysis during the course of the year, and of course, to wrap up what's been a tumultuous 2018 and looking ahead to two thousand nineteen look forward to speaking with you again, very very soon our annual forum, and thank you again, very very much for joining us here this weekend..

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