Merrill Kelly, Diamondbacks, Threatening Outlet Syndrome discussed on Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast


That he sent this question after watching the thrilling d-backs rockies game tonight. My buddy texted me that the debates are unstoppable. When merrill kelly starts sure enough. I looked it up. And they're only four wins in the last thirty five days. Have all come. When merrill started their last win when someone else started was june first that got me wondering has this ever happened before the man is handedly sort of preventing a thirty five game losing streak or i guess. It was a a thirty one game and thirty five day. Losing streak has their industry this long. Where teams only wins have come from the same starting pitcher and merrill kelly guesses is the good outcome if you're a nationals fan. Who's worried about stephen strasburg. Who found out on. Tuesday is going to be undergoing surgery for threatening outlet syndrome which can be very serious and has ended careers or been a significant setback and people often cite matt as a pitcher who's never been the same after that. Well mira kelly is one of the positive outcomes. He had that and he has come back and been better than ever. So that's something. And the diamondbacks are happy that he has strasbourg by the way barely pitched really since his own twenty two thousand nine season and since he signed that long-term deal. So that's a bummer. That's been really the the knock against him throughout his careers. Injury-prone nessin that has been the case over the last couple seasons. I hope he can come back. Merrill kelly style anyway. The question is about the diamondbacks. Who as i discussed with mike fair in recent episode went through really historically terrible rough stretch. They won a game against the mets on june first and then until july six they did not win a game that was not started by merrill. Kelly's so. I sent this to frequent step bus consultant ryan nelson. Who did his usual magic. So it is actually quite notable. The streak is thirty. One games that the diamondbacks went without a wind in a game started by someone other than kelly. So ryan writes. It took me a bit to think about how to break this down into an easily solvable problem. And here's how i did it. Put a table of every game. Ever played with the franchise the score and the starting pitcher for the game in order year by game number the first game of the year second game of the year cetera. From there we can interet through the rows and determine if the street continues. We start with the first row. If it's a win than the winning pitcher is now the pitcher of streaking record. We'd go to the next game if it is a lost. The street continues. If it is a game by the pitcher of streaking record the street continues regardless of whether the pitcher actually got the win. This team wins that pitcher wins. The only way the streak ends is a different. Starting pitcher can lead the team to victory in which case the old streak ends and a new one started with the new pitcher of streaking record. The one thing that doesn't do is count for losses before the first win. Streak for example in the recent deepak streak. The first win for. Kelly didn't come until june twenty first eighteen games into the eventual. Thirty game streak. So i've actually gone back in menu adjusted for all thirty two streaks that were logged as west than thirty games could have theoretically been longer than thirty games that preceded by enough losses only was and he says with that said here all the longest streaks of all time i think you will notice a pattern so if we go back to the nineteenth century then we get extremely long streaks because basically like one pitcher was making all the starts for certain teams for one or two so like the eighteen seventy three to eighteen seventy five boston red stockings. They had a streak of one hundred twenty games where the only wins. Were by al spalding. But he was starting most of the time for those teams and same thing with the eighteen. Seventy one to seventy three red stockings and al spa thing and the eighteen seventy four to seventy five chicago white stockings with george settling and the eighteen. Seventy eight to seventy nine boston red stockings with tommy bond and the eighteen seventy eight chicago. White stockings with terry larkin. These are streaks of again. One hundred twenty games ninety one eighty two eighty two and forty seven so ryan rights. Yeah there are a lot of old stocking teams were only one guy pitched however if we look from one thousand nine hundred twenty twenty. The data is as follows. Now there is a forty five game streak. This is the nineteen sixteen philadelphia athletics. They went to july eleventh to august. Tenth i guess and the only winds were in game started by bullet joe bush and then the one thousand nine hundred twenty three south lettuce had thirty four game streak in which only winds were game started by slim harriss june first to july sixth. And then lastly the nineteen forty three philadelphia. Athletics had a four game streak as well in the only windward game started by roger wolfe. But that's it. Those are the only streaks ahead of merrill kelly in the diamond backs they were again at thirty one and that bests the nineteen sixty one philadelphia phillies. Who had a thirty game streak with john. Buzz heart and then the nineteen twelve to nineteen thirteen. New york highlanders had at twenty nine game streak with ray keating being the only guy so the diamondbacks streak that we just saw is the longest well of any non philadelphia team in the twentieth or twenty first century and also is the longest since world war two so since the nineteen forty three philadelphia as this had not happened in a longer streak so ryan also check just to look for you know streaks with one non streak win in the middle like one win by someone else and he found that That didn't change anything. There weren't actually any longer streak. So i did not know this. This is why i love step. Last are often prompted by western emails because we cover the game on a national level and pay attention to everything in theory but can't pay as much attention to any given team as a fan of that team does and so we find out about things like this like i. I knew kelly was having a good season and was like the only man standing from the diamondbacks plan opening day rotation. And i just did not know that he had been a historic stopper. Just like i didn't know that. The mariners hadn't swept a homestand since nineteen eighty one which was established last week so we have our very informed and perceptive listeners were able to ask about these things and often really hit on something significant sometimes not sometimes the stop less questions are not as interesting but some are really good so thanks again to matt for the question and to ryan for the research and as always i will put the data online for people to peruse but pretty cool. Yeah i was expecting to see like steve carlton maybe when he went twenty seven and ten for the phillies in nineteen seventy two and they were fifty nine and ninety seven as a team but no it's merrill kelly. I wonder what the fee like what you're feeling is if you're another starter in that rotation because on the one hand especially when wins have been so hard to come by as they have been for the diamondbacks. I'm sure thrilled that the team has won. Like that's your that's the that's the primary emotional response. But i do wonder what percentage of your feeling is like what he got all the ones really. I'm sure there's a little bit of it because you're also competitive not just competitive with the upon your competitive with every other pitcher in the league including guys in your clubhouse who you hopefully have like a good relationship with put your late on a be the best pitcher and you can't share some of those winds like wonder what percentage of you would would think that because you know we're we're emotionally complicated little creatures. So i guess when the diamondbacks were you know setting records for losing streaks know bekker's happy to have the winds no matter who made the start all right just scanning. Mlb trade rumors one last time. Don't see any new trades his so hopefully everyone has enjoyed our real time trade reactions here and we will have much more trade talk in the remaining two episodes this week and we will get out before some other..

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