The Skeptics Guide #801 - Nov 14 2020

Automatic TRANSCRIPT

Am listening so my favorite was the other one from. I'm in a submarine under the sea of japan. Right now i remember that one of them said that he came when the submarine would go up and they would get internet. He would download all varsha and the captain would yell at them. Who's hogging up the bandwidth almost unser to last week. We just mentioned that the the us election had occurred but we didn't know the result and today we do so even though it isn't official official yet. even though one of the candidates disagrees catania's denying reality. Joe biden won the us presidential election. He will be sworn in january twentieth despite whenever shenanigans happened between now. And then there's the potential for anything to change that fact but you know like we say trump is gonna go down swinging and there there is legitimate concern about how the delay in the transition The cooperation with the transition might affect efforts to fight the pandemic. because also what's happening is the. Us is breaking records over one hundred forty thousand new cases today of kovic so still raging raging on. There has been some good news. I'm sure you guys have heard about this. M pfizer pfizer. Actually visor and a german company. It's bio capital and tech. So i don't know if it's supposed to be bio and heck or biontech or is it beyond tacking onto. Yeah 'cause i've seen another another company that did the bio and was beyond beyond vacs. I think was okay beyond whatever. And it's like visor which is an american company in collaboration. They created a vaccine. It's actually the i. If it gets approved it will be the first approved. 'em aren a vaccine. I'll tell you about that in the second. And they're in phase three trials. They haven't completed their face through trials but they announced preliminary results from these phase three trials they have looked at data from about forty four thousand volunteers who were enrolled half the volunteers get the vaccine the other half get placebo and then they follow them to see how many in each group get cove it you know so they're not deliberately exposing them to cove it or anything crisp out in the wild how many people get covered and you need huge numbers to do that because you just waiting for people to get statistical and so they said they were waiting for a certain number of people to catch covid totally and the number hit they going to stop at sixty four but by the time they figured out ninety four people at it so in the trial so ninety four people have it and others ninety four people who have it when you compare the two groups. The vaccine reduced the number of people getting kobe by ninety percent so by the usual way that we measure these things you could say that the vaccine is ninety percent effective. So this is great. They were they were hoping to get at least fifty percent effective. So 'nineties more right so this is ninety percent. Effective vaccine is awesome. And that's the dose vaccine right back. Seen him two doses twenty eight days apart. That's a little bit of a downside. How how do we coordinate that to make sure that people land on that twenty eight days you get your first one. They scheduled you to come in for the second one eight days later this question but i'm just worried that i'm the kind of person that would forget you know. Well that's always a word. Gosh you don't wanna forget. J i know does yeah. That's why it's more ideal to have a single dose vaccine. But you know we're gonna take what we can get right now. Have an easy solution for you. Have a sharpie handy okay. You're right on the back of your hand. Twenty days cannot be there so it has to be super cold yes nine minus eighty degrees celsius way for storage or were they injected into your persona and refrigerated for up to three days in the physicians officer in the hospital. It could be just regularly refrigerated but only good for about three days. But when it's being shipped around the world or whatever it's gotta be stored at negative eighty degrees so that's income. Well let me just go into the data a little bit more so in the united states. The fda has made the decision that they're not going to give emergency use authorization to any vaccine unless it has at least two months of follow up for at least half of the people enrolled that was what they negotiated with the fda. So that's not gonna happen until the end of this month. So by by the end of november the fda could grant and emergency use authorization or an e. You a to this vaccine which means that we can start using it like really. There'll be no limit at that point on a tuesday. we'll have full approval approval. We'll have permanent approval. But it'll have like this you a which will be good enough for now. We know what the projection would look like at that point productive so the pfizer says they can they will be able to get about fifty million doses. Twenty five million peoples worth right by the end of this year and then another one point three billion doses or brown six hundred and fifty million people with two doses each by the end of two thousand twenty one well. The good news is because they're a month apart. It's almost like they can increase the number of people so long as they can have the production capacity.

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