China Rumors, 2021 Refreshed Model 3 Delivery, Tesla Energy Project, Toyota Comments (11.09.20)


Everybody around here quite a few stories to go through four today. We're going to start out with some news out of china. We have the first delivery in the us of twenty twenty one model year model. Three tesla semi news energy news some tweets from yuan. Musk and a couple other stories as well. We'll start off with the made in china model. Y this is news. That was developing at the end of last week. As far as i know. Ray for tesla on twitter was one of the first to report on this and that is that tesla has completed the registration process for the made in china model. Why with the china ministry of industry and information technology so that was on thursday and then we wa on. Youtube has posted a video from friday. That shows a camouflage vehicle driving around the tessa gigafactory in shanghai which strongly appears to be a model. Why we've seen a camouflaged monowai in china on a trailer before. But i don't think we've seen one at least this clearly at the gigafactory as of yet so. That was thursday and friday and then on saturday tasmanian posted an article saying quote. Desmond's reliable source said that the giga shanghai will begin production of the model by as early as the end of november and quote. We've long been speculating here that this would happen for tesla in q. Four which would be well ahead of certainly at least analysts expectations and with a vehicle now being registered prototype seemingly being spotted on site combined with a report here from tasmanian things seemed to continue to be pointed in that direction deaths. Manian also writes in this article quote. According to information from tasmanian source the maximum production capacity target from ottawa and twenty twenty one will be five thousand units per week. Which means that giga shanghai will produce about twenty thousand model wiper per month approximately two hundred fifty thousand units yearly and quote so again. That report was from saturday and then over the last twenty four hours or so. We've had reports from multiple chinese media outlets which have been covered on twitter by a number of people. Here will look at de correct has been helpful with some stuff in the past. Who on twitter writes quote tussle china twenty planned production capacity at five hundred and fifty thousand units three hundred thousand mile three and two hundred and fifty thousand motto y among them one hundred thousand model three and ten thousand model to be exported china media citing unnamed insiders. Tessa already sent order. Demand to the core component suppliers one insider set tusla no comment yet and quote from a second tweet. It does look like tesla did respond to the story saying that. They're not able to comment on any specific production numbers for twenty twenty one but that the shanghai planned development is going smoothly all right. So let's talk about that a little bit so far this year. The best production months from china have been about twelve thousand vehicles ourselves. Tesla's pretty close to about one hundred fifty thousand per year analyzing that and here they are trying to grow production capacity to about five hundred and fifty thousand next year. So that's essentially what fremont capable of out pudding tesla's the production capacity installed at fremont hundred ninety thousand currently up from four hundred ninety thousand earlier this year. One of the most important things to remember though when we talk about capacity is something that tesla added to the shareholder letter in particular. this quarter. They said quote installed capacity does not equal current production rate production rate depends on pace factory. Ramp supply chain ramp. Downtime related factory upgrades national holidays and other factors and quote so first of all this five hundred and fifty thousand production capacity number is just a rumor at this point. This has not been confirmed by tesla. Though i do think it's more likely than not that the rumors accurate but even if that is the case it definitely seems to refer to production capacity and it could be at any time over the course of the year meaning may be december of twenty twenty. One is when tesla finally hits installed capacity of five hundred and thousand from shanghai and even then the production rate might be lower for some context. Here we're now approaching a year out from the start of model three production accurate factory shanghai and again. The annual production capacity has been approaching one hundred and fifty thousand though in the u. three-letter dessel analyst. Their current installed capacity for model three from shanghai at two hundred and fifty thousand so we should see that production rate uptick in q. Four and those key results as well as what. We've seen so far from model and shanghai. This year should be a really good benchmark for what to expect from ottawa. Next year wrapping up with china. We do have numbers starting to come in. So the china passenger car association has reported made in china model three sales for october at twelve thousand one hundred forty three vehicles up about seven percent from the reported. Eleven thousand three hundred twenty nine in september. So these monthly numbers out of china are always a little bit confusing because we seem to have sort of two sets of numbers being reported one seems to be more production focused with the other seeming to be sales in this case. I think this number is domestic sales. Sell something that's important to keep in mind is that during october tesla reportedly exported at least seven thousand made in china model threes to europe. So because i believe this is a domestic china sales number. Those model threes would not captured. Here i'll be keeping an eye out to see if we get any numbers related to production because as always i find those numbers to be more interesting. But i don't think we can. Simply just add the twelve thousand sold domestically in china to the seven thousand or however many ended up being exported because by now they have built a decent amount of stock in china. I believe around. Four or five thousand units so looking at sales and production in one given month isn't gonna tell us the complete picture unless we know how that inventory number changes as well either way still most curious about those production numbers because tesla reportedly added to shift this quarter and of course.

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