Jason Furman, Cameron Kosta, Dr Scott Gottlieb discussed on Squawk Pod

Squawk Pod


I'm cnbc producer. Cameron kosta today on our podcast. It's jobs friday a big jobs report but a small really small jobs number a mere two hundred and thirty five thousand jobs added in august but it may not be as bad as it seems former chair of the council economic advisers. Jason furman built as having about three percent as much impact on the economy as the first wave of the virus. Did a team of economists breakdown. America's hiring landscape co variants still weighing on the economy and on our health former. Fda commissioner dr scott gottlieb leap. I think that there's a perception that we're sort of through this delta wave here in the northeast i don't think that that was the true delta wave i think that that was a delta warning i think are true delta waves going to start to build after labor day. Here in the northeast. Those stories plus kathy would makes a call on electric vehicles and chips in short supply. This is the other chip. But for some reason every time i read it. I'm thinking of what i'm really worried about. And that is you know if any of the toes are in short supply as football does doritos. Okay homer it's friday. September third twenty one. Squawk pod begins right now becky by in three two one place. Good morning. Welcome to squawk box here on cnbc. I'm becky quick. Along with joe kernan andrew is off. Today it's friday. It is indeed friday but not just any friday. It's jobs friday. The first friday of the month aka the day the labor department reveals how many jobs were added to the us economy the month before. But that's not all this particular jobs report. The one for august was critical for the federal reserve. They're trying to decide. When to taper the bond purchases they started last year to bolster a us economy rocked by cove. Nineteen so the big jobs number increased a miniscule two hundred and thirty five thousand. Not so big a number. In fact economists were expecting or in hindsight it kind of seems like they were hoping for at least seven hundred. Twenty thousand jobs added this two hundred thirty. Five number is the lowest level of growth since january of twenty twenty. Here's our senior economics. Reporter steve. policemen. Let me tell you where we didn't have jobs. Goose said a big goose egg on leisure off metality. That was what we had pointed out earlier. This week was the place that may have seen the delta variant effect. We had a retail minus twenty eight and a half thousand another big disappointment transportation up fifty three but that was not that has been stronger in the past. The big miss on the one of the parts of the big on the part of the private sector forecasters was the expectation of the a huge influx of workers in the education area. The private sector education did add forty thousand. But when i look at it. I'm going to double check this number here again. The local education it was it was minus five point seven on local and minus twenty on state. I have read reports. Becky expecting two hundred plus thousand on the education so there might be a little bit of mismatch. That would make this miss. Not that bad because there is some expectation that we'll be hiring it doesn't appear to have been caught up or maybe it was a papered over by the seasonal adjustments. So i don't think it's wrong to think that the misses not as bad as you see as it seems from the headline but it's still a mess. It's still suggests we had i think clearly a delta variant affect nealer richardson chief economist at payroll and hr company adp explained. Why it's not that there isn't a hiring demand out there but there are still these. Lingering issues concerns and the lack of full-time affordable childcare never have spoken about childcare in the jobs market so much together because they are so critically important and right now we're dealing with the bus driver shortage another aspect of whole scenario of getting kids back to school which is critical for working families. You're really seeing the timing. Mismatch co the theaters. And the fact that there is a deceleration in economic growth going on in the second. Half of the year is all consulting so originally as i said. Economists were looking at this number closely because the federal reserve was going to be looking at it closely. Have we recovered enough for the fed to pull back on. Its efforts to buoy the us economy. Here's steve liebmann again. I think that the fed is gonna pass on taper announcing taper this this month so time will tell the unemployment rate ticked down two tenths of a percent progress. But not nearly as much as we'd all expected here's jason furman chief economist and cabinet member for president obama. I think there's no question that the delta virus is taking a toll on the economy. What's interesting is how much tinier that toll on. The economy is than the toll. It's actually taking on health. We're headed pretty rapidly to daily death toll from delta that exceeds the death toll that we had in april from the first wave. But then you look at these numbers. Delta may be subtracted. I don't know six hundred thousand jobs that we would have had absent delta that we didn't have last time around we lost twenty million jobs delta's having about three percent as much impact on the economy as the first wave of the virus did people are labor. Markets are still pretty tight on this more than ten million job openings job openings. Keep rising one of the big data points. This month was wages up. Zero point. six percent on that is a tight labor market with a lot more openings than unemployed and that also means we're poised to add you know a lot of jobs in the coming months as people either get over their fears of delta. The delta virus starts to fall or time starts to search to fix all of this. This is not the blockbuster progress we saw in july. But the economy's still moving in the right direction as jason said employers are still looking to hire becky spoke with katie. George mckenzie's economist. We are really seeing a new war for talent. And i'm employers are working very hard to attract new workforce editions and really changing the way they think about their employees value propositions what what does that mean. They really have to to pay up offer. More benefits compete with other companies to get that same group of workers all of that but what we see is the front runners are really playing a long game and what i mean by. That is really investing in workforce training and skill development and long-term meaning that these are employees. They don't want to have turnover. They wanna make sure that they are hiring and keeping these people around for years to come it exactly. I think we're seeing more and more a sense. That the kind of attrition we've seen right now is really unhealthy and that people are trying to create jobs that are jobs today but careers long-term so it's creating a problem for employers right now. I mean you hear statistics. Something like seventy percent of people want a new job this year and employers are worried because that's actually having an impact right now absolutely because obviously losing employees who are loyal and to have the skills that are required.

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