China, Russia, Mr Putin discussed on World Affairs Council


We could keep that flow of information, and it doesn't require the US to change a single bit of its modernization plans. Because the Pentagon designed those modernization failed plans to fit within new starts limits. So this makes a lot of sense. The Russians have said they're prepared to extend with no conditions. What the Trump administration has done and Master Billingsley, the chief envoy and arms control. He came out last month and said, Well, there's some conditions. One condition is that China agree to participate in a trilateral negotiation with Russia in the state's attorneys have said for a long time, they will not participate in that kind of negotiation. And their argument I think has to merit. They say United States and Russia each have about 4000 nuclear weapons. We in China have 300 that the difference is huge. It doesn't make a lot of sense. And so I ask myself is our leverage to bring China into a negotiation increased if new start goes away, and I don't think so. I don't see how having Russian strategic forces Become essentially unconstrained how that helps our bargaining position Visa to China. But I worry that the administration's painted itself into a corner that will make it hard to extend new start and I think some and I'm kind of lean this directions. Think that perhaps this idea about bringing China in Is a pretext not to extend new start. Now let me say I would like to see China committed some point, but I think You're not going to get the Chinese to join a trial out of negotiation. Because I'm sure that neither Washington or Moscow is prepared to roost deuce down to China's 300 warheads and other Washington or Moscow are prepared to status. China Sure you could build up to our level of 4000 warheads. And I don't think China is going to be ready to accept a treaty with unequal limits. So I don't think that treaty works. Now. I would argue, perhaps a a way that would have been more better prospect of success would be for the United States and Russia to negotiate another bilateral negotiation, Ideally covering all their nuclear weapons, not just reports descriptions, bring those weapons down and then go to China. And because the Russians would insist we need to talk to British, Britain and France, who each have who have about as many weapons as China and then tell those three countries we would like you to give us a bit of transparency about your total weapons numbered but then also make a political commitment that you will not build up or not go above a certain level as long as we're coming down because it really doesn't make sense if we're reducing for you to be building up You mentioned this earlier as well is their reliance on natural resource is in particular energy. Does Putin made any successful attempt to expand the Russian economy beyond oil? Any approach towards diversification? Any any attempts to be a manufacturing powerhouse and export powerhouse in something other than energy was really if you go back and you look at Putin's first term 4000 for there actually was a fair amount of economic reform on DH. Hey, had a finance minister of Finance. Mr Kudrin, who made them do some very painful things to get the economy in better shape. Then what happened you saw in 4 4005 was is the price of oil went up? And all of sudden, Russia began taking in huge revenues from oil and gas sales. Economic pressure was released and so reform sort of stopped and I think what Russia could have done had there been a strategic plan in places they could have used. Those energy funds. To diversify the economy on DH move away from the current situation, where probably about 70% of Russian exports today our oil and gas and things they pull out of the earth. Sometimes asked us when I'm talking to an audience. Does anybody here own any computers or electronics or clothes or cars or furniture that was made in Russia? Your other than weapons and nuclear power plants. Russia doesn't build much that the world wants to buy, and I'm not sure that that's a successful economic model for the 21st century. And so far, Mr Putin seems to be comfortable with sustaining this model, which is very much dependent on oil and gas, and it has some real costs..

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