Apple, Paul, TOM discussed on Bloomberg Surveillance
Tom and Paul Karen. Thanks so much. I got open our early today, which for me is like I think Paul was going to sleep or something besides getting up. And I did so to read in globally on this pandemic, I really would use the word grim on air. We're not in the business of editorializing. But what a groom weekend Ireland lock down on Thursday and then all sorts of challenges in Europe. The mathematics of the northern part of the American Midwest and into the mountain states as well. We get an update from Joshua Sharfstein of Johns Hopkins. Well, it is extremely concerning because it's obviously not just cases we're seeing. We're seeing a lot of people in the hospital. I was just looking at the stories about field hospitals being built and With content and other states. Taxes have to be used in military hospitals, Utah sending patients all over the country because of all those air, really, concerning time. Anyone who thinks that that increases because of tapping and completely wrong because we're seeing sort of build surgeons and hospital care weaving it surges in patients that need to be mechanically ventilated. And when that happened, there's going to be an increase in deaths. Now the rate of that meaning of the people who got sick we can. We can take care of them better if you were going to die, But that means overall because there's so many cases more and more people are going to die. So it's really cold comfort that that You know, there's a little bit of a last chance of in any individual dying. There's just so many more individuals. So this is a really serious time. And I think the projections that we could go 1000 to 2000 Day or not unrealistic. Do you have an extrapolation to the number of deaths out there? That's the one thing I couldn't find this weekend except from pundits, punditry and On a medical basis. Looking at the literature can you extrapolated out the number of deaths in the United States? And that's something that I do. But there are people who do that kind of models and kind of models that some of the pundits are fighting and so you know, based on the anticipated spread, you know come Ingles B from the jump Falcon for Health Security, was quoted Over the weekend, saying something which I think it's true the cases they're going up and we're not really doing that much to bring them down, so we can expect them to go up for a while. And when that happens when people get sick, and that's what's driving the projections. That more and more people dying just when you look at, you know the race to the vaccine there a couple of things that moved over the weekend. First of all, we understand that AstraZeneca vaccine actually makes a nought immune response in the elderly. We also understand that J. J. Johnson and Johnson said the first batches of its shot could be available. As January. Is this much needed good news. Yeah, I think there is some good news out there. And I think the evidence vaccines can create immune response to Napoli is a good step. We don't know for sure that that means people protected. So we're waiting for the studies to find out that the study should be reporting soon, so You know, I think that's good. I still wish that we were learning a little bit more about what was going on with the trial. From regulators around the world, but Hopefully, they'll be able Tio find their voice as these child come to a conclusion. Just readjusting this Johns Hopkins University will be important conversations in the coming Days. You know, Paul, There's all these distractions. There's an election. Did you know that eight days out seven days, six days count down in the middle of it is like, okay, just Mr Biden sound, Mr Trump's sit down. There's tech earnings like you know the tech earnings hearing. I read Jim Super this morning a wonderful report from Citigroup on Apple, and you know it's the product mix thing. We're all stuck at home. Paul sweetie alone bought for home Apple products, actually, right, and it's time to upgrade my air buds there. Whatever whatever I need, I need the noise canceling. He's big on those, you know. I'm gonna get some tech earnings this week. Tom and you know, hopefully they'll be supportive of the market here. But you think about the Apple story. It's just such a rich story as it relates to their Howard, where they haven't You know this five g may or may not be a super cycle for the irony, but it but it's big and it's a two or three years driver those handset sales and then you've got A ll The other wearables, which I know you got your watch and your air pods and all that stuff. And then there's that whole services business, which is, you know, 20. Okay, so John Butler knows all about this folks. We live in a hermetically sealed skyscraper here, the only one allowed to have smoke and flames as John Butler. He's got us fire next to his desk doing smoke signals. Trying to figure out what Apple's going to dio. How did the sell side Paul figure out what the product mix is going to be? They have, like spies in China or something. The old Channel checks is you're exactly right. Thompson Channel checks on the manufacturing side. Their channel checks on the retail aside. On and that's kind of where they go to get a sense of. And of course, they've got all their big financial models in unit price is and how many units are sold and all those types of things, but it's become a You know they have so many products within the Apple story. It's not just the phone, although the phone is the big driver, but but they model all that out. And I think they get a pretty good sense of kind of where things were going. And you know that the new business for Apple has been The surface is business. You know, it's a new business. It's a high margin business, and it's something that the company continues to invest in. And a lot of folks think that that's going to be the long term. Play for this company going forward, so lots of moving pieces there. Fortunately for Apple, Andi shareholders, most of the pieces are moving in the right direction. You know, the middle child jetted out to l a this weekend to find yourself or whatever. So we watched La LA land. If I pay whatever I paid Apple for La LA land. What's the gross margin on that, like 92%, That's pretty high. It's It's pretty high, so they given you know, I should just write a check out to Tim Cook, right? Exactly right. And you do that. You know, I think we all do that more times. And then we carried it to think. But Yeah, so it's something for them. You know the Apple plus the Apple TV business. It's not that big a business for them. They arguably on the entertainment side. They need to figure out if they want to be anything more than a middleman. And to date they've chosen not to. They haven't bought it. 21st Century Fox. They haven't bought Time Warner when it was up for sale, So I think I know it seems like I'm very content to just kind of be taking the toll toll taker if you will, from the likes of you and I the nice over Paul Sweeney. I will get to quickly here in a moment. I've been dying to talk to Paul about that..