Sharp drop for US consumer confidence in July to 92.6 as coronavirus spreads


We've got some consumer confidence numbers out today, and I guess not surprisingly, they for July that came in weaker than June, and presumably that reflects Kind of the surging covert cases were seeing it such key key U. S markets as California, Texas and Florida to get some color on how the consumers doing welcome Lynn Franco, She's director of economic indicators at the conference board. Then give us some color. On what your data show this morning. Well following a large increase in June. We've seen a bit of a retreat in consumer confidence. And while consumers are telling us that the present situation has improved a little bit, naturally tied into the re opening of the Economy because overall still remain well where we were pre pandemic levels. They are expressing some caution concern about short term out which could any PAC spending in the coming months. No, it's interesting, Lynn. You know, we see the unemployment numbers. You see that jobless claim numbers all terribly terribly negative. But one area the economy that continues to do well is home ownership to get some more data today about Home sales. We had some good results in home builder D. H. Horton, What's How do you guys track kind of home ownership housing that kind of thing in your index. Well, we're seeing also a bit of a spike in percent of consumers who say they intend to purchase a home in the next couple of months. That went up from 6.827 point four s o, I think you know, sort of all time. Low mortgage rates, obviously feeding into the desire. Imagine To buy a home. It's interesting, and you know, one of the key issues, I guess for the consumer clearly has been fiscal stimulus. Congress earlier had their third round of fiscal stimulus a couple of months ago where that $3 trillion number which is truly Historic and more now under negotiations that the folks down in Congress and it seems to be quite a bit of Ah, I guess dispute about kind of how this fourth round of stimulus what it should include how big it should be. A ll that type of thing. How is fiscal stimulus factored into the data that you see at the conference board? I think it just cultures into the overall economic outlook, and you know what we're seeing here is. Consumers are somewhat concerned about economic growth, labor market growth, and they remain pretty lukewarm, so to speak on their income prospects, So we have there at least a number of optimists equaling the number of pessimists. So they may be waiting to see what the stimulus package entails. But overall, they did not know very cautious about their income prospects over the last couple of months. And I know you guys have kind of expectations. Index too, And I'm guessing that retreat it is that is that a regional? Can you track that regionally so California less optimistic than, say, the folks in New York state Absolutely and where we saw the largest declines or in states where we're seeing, you know a spike in the virus No Michigan, Florida, Texas and California, But you take a look at New York and seeing a bit of a bounce back there. In terms of the how they rate. Current conditions, though, however, is still somewhat would say recessionary levels, but they're a little bit more optimistic about where we're headed. Sound, but other states in particular nowhere the resurgence has really taken hold are seeing sharp declines double digits in some places of more than 20 points. Which is a pretty dramatic retreat in consumer confidence. Consumers that you track and your index. How did they feel about the job market again? Jobless claims have been brutal, but we have seen some rebound and the last couple of months in total unemployment total jobs. What's kind of the consumers outlook for the job market. If we take a look at where their rating it right now, we could see a very modest improvement, 20.5% said Jobs were plentiful last month. That's up to 21.3. But if you sort of look in the mirror, we were 43.3% and 46.5% You know, pre pandemic levels. So what we have seen a little bit of improvement as we well know, you know, unemployment claims continued to rise. And looking ahead six months They've grown a bit more pessimistic, and I was born from about 38.4% chain expected more jobs to a reading of 30.6 in July. So there is some concern is where the economy and the recovery is headed. Interesting. Lynn Franco. Thanks So much for joining us again with your leading economic index, director of economic indicators for the conference board. Consumer, I guess again, not surprisingly, becoming a, you know, a little less optimistic relative to say, June and that clearly Reflects the flare up We've seen again in some of those Kiki markets includes just massive markets like Texas again. California, Florida You've got to think that has a big big impact on those consumer confidence numbers. And

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