Australia, ICU, Medical Officer discussed on The Signal
So like we were saying these pods on the same length. Elimination would be the shortest option. Tony says might still be available but not for long and the next shortest would be flattening. The curve that's allowing the virus to spread to a point that is a user at capacity in this number of assumptions here. But these are hit. Immunity is achieved sixty percent. We double out. Icu pissed so the record about four thousand base to deal with covert. The average tawny admits IC- issue if you get covered as teen days and we also control the epidemic levers and keep just said. Icu pistol it would take featuring extreme calculations to see it all pass by February. Yeah which is a lot longer than the six month idea. That's being discussed publicly at the moment. Not at six months has ever been a promise but a lot of the policy response especially the economic kind seems to be geared towards that timeframe whereas February is more like ten or eleven months on upside tiny reckons. If Australia does a good job of isolating the vulnerable the elderly and people with commodities and some antiviral treatments become available. We could cut that time in half right. And then there's the Middle Pa the one that we're on right now and even longer than eleven months because he thinks if we keep squashing the curve way below. Icu capacity not low enough to wipe it out altogether. We'll probably end up with a vaccine before we rate showed immunity. Which means we'd say living like this for somewhere in the vicinity of a year to maybe even a year and a half because there's not enough social context to allow the boss to speed enough to get the infection right up to get the kite is passing through an achieve here community. Now that's just about hero seat. Settimana public health medicine speechless saying that. If we want to get hit immunity we're going to let more people cannot victim and doing some version of this until winter. 2021 isn't a pretty thought but neither is tens of thousands of voidable deaths. We WANT TO ACHIEVE IMMUNITY BEFORE CHRISTMAS. Too much social physical distancing environment which is why as a society. We need to work out. What our goal is here are. We hid immunity and completely relax because try and why and have reduced epidemic all social costume social disruption and economic cost. All those things for much longer until we have a vaccine okay so say Australia does want to achieve herd immunity foster. What are they doing that so if Australia? The signs that we want immunity and we want to try to before Christmas assault. Not Too long we would now just ease off a little bit sale out. People can take to work but more just get infection right up everything along and then we would get took point where it was starting to grow quickly would probably have to go into the liberal physical team. We hit now or preps even more lockdown and then holder that now. That's what I can say. I know played with the mathematics to make myself a sexy tricky. So you need to have a margin of era near you put in the controls all north. You go to to move. And it's quite a frightening thing for the chief medical officer to the thinking about pulling all but if we wanted to go to him you see that we would do. And some countries Sweden's by Sweden is relatively relaxed about the team. Except SEAN so this quarter around the world and how countries are purchasing. Okay so kind of a stop stop. Stop model yeah or to torture. Everyone's favourite metaphor this week about hibernation. We would wake the Baragan just for a little while and then send it back to sleep are not necessarily advocating that astray should take us. Pa But it isn't option. I think a lot of people think that what we're doing now. We'll get us through to feud immunity pointing out. That will now smell social distancing if we keep it on will not cheat hit immunity and we're looking at a really really long hole in the state until there's a vaccine we do have another option needs to be discussed about advocating. We take that route. It's not my job to decide that citizenry astrid that deserves the chance to have explained to them and be able to flick back to the politicians as to. What the preferences do you think? It's possible that the government's already chosen the model which we sort of redundant shave her immunity and we wait it out until there's a vaccine but they've maybe done a bit of a calculation that people will freak out if you say to them by the way you're going to be indoors for another eleven months. I couldn't possibly comment. Go on I suspect. That's what's happened to and I'm not going to criticize the too much into this really but I do wonder. Alexei speaks to wonder this being a hit in the UK the UK was initially on a trajectory towards immunity. And then basically the Imperial College study came out and shuts rights and society. Just to wear not going there. But they didn't consider what options where and so you look down by political will increase physical distancing. That happens and then. You're sitting here Australia about three weeks. Away behind chief medical officer. And you're looking at all this the prime minister. And you're looking at the less neutron wick. At how do we find out about this? I suspect just? What is this if we can't demonstrate immunity route possible so we'll go this middle route and we'll public know that this means it's not going to achieve it immunity when we get a bit of settling down here? I think we need to be transparent about. We're not going to be cheaper than going to be reading all because these serious implications.