Merrill Lynch, Nouri Al Rabin, Ben Carlson discussed on The Kristen Hagopian Show


Indicators that suggest docs will break out to new highs as you all. Know I don't buy any of this stuff I don't I've been around the game too long because anything can happen. Anything can happen I mean. You got trade wars going on you got. Turkey and we're fighting with Russia, and China and all this stuff all at. The same time the guy in Canada can't stand Trump Scott's the guy in France can't either and it goes on and on and on so. You don't know what's going to happen But I was reading Ben Carlson, I thought this was kind of funny he wrote eight questions I've been pondering. And the one that I. Got a kick out of was this one. How hard was it to invest, in stocks in two thousand and nine and. I got thinking about that article and y'all How hard is it today to invest in stocks when you think about the fact. That we're in this nine plus year bull market according to many of? The x bar experts valuations are at nosebleed levels Think back to two thousand and nine, in March, of two thousand nine I don't think. Anybody not Kramer not me not. Anyone was jumping up on the tables and saying yeah, let's go all in we just got our butts kicked minus fifty seven percent, but let's go all in any way I don't remember anybody saying that I'm sure there were a few and if there were they ought to write a book and cash in on the book like Amoroso How, hard was it to, invest in stocks in two thousand and nine here's what he had to say Investing in stocks seems like a layup looking back at some of the prices from oh nine but for anyone who. Lived through the financial crisis investing at the point of maximum pessimism and its aftermath was anything but easy. And then he goes on to show a couple of headlines that one? Of his readers sent to him Allow. Me to read them to you March ninth two thousand and nine Rabin's said this is Nouri Al Rabin a famous economists may. Communist who's been right a lot a couple of times to this time wrong this is what he said Rabin says SNP may drop to. Six hundred as prophets fall What are we working on like three thousand now March fourteenth two thousand nine just a sucker's rally may ninth. Two. Thousand and. Nine, Meryl's as in Lynch. Rosenberg goodbye thank you yes it's a sucker's rally would? You, say Merrill Lynch is a fairly high brow well read organization with all kinds. Of technological, support. And market forecasters economists and market everything's yes yes And. They said it's a sucker's rally because the market started? To, rally this was in may starting to come back I think it was like. Sixty seventy. Percent By by the time those Christmas. Rolled around but if? Merrill, Lynch said. If they're guy as should say said it's a sucker's rally I think it'd be kind of reluctant the jump Bank. In what did you not oh come on Yes you. Would I would I? Respect, those guys December seventh Two thousand nine Eighty percent chance of a market crash in. The next year Eighty percent chance. To market. Went straight up folks. Straight up until. Twenty fifteen let's see that's two thousand. Ten eleven twelve thirteen fourteen five. Years of straight up, market then a kind of flat market and then up again Doesn't get. Much better than that Also and, looking through this his next question why it's so hard. To invest during a bear market and he quotes a vanguard research piece that I hadn't seen in a while and it reminded. Me of a couple of things let me go through the worst performing sectors, back in two, thousand and three two. Thousand three two thousand and three and then two thousand seven. To February two thousand and? Nine and why is this important it's because folks what Burton Malki l. wrote in a random walk. Down Wall, Street. Is pretty true it's. Random man it. Is so random check this out worst performing sectors in. Two thousand two. Thousand three info technology minus forty two point Three telecom.

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