Paul Bulk, Arthur Burns, Volker discussed on Bitcoin Magazine Podcast
A risk that's just going to be kind of checked off and I ignored because it didn't unfold. But the analogy of the 70s or Powell being Paul bulk or Arthur burns. And for those that aren't too well versed in fed chairman history, Volker was obviously a guy that rose to 20% and stamped that inflation. Burns was the guy that kind of prematurely eased off the gas and inflation kind of reignited back in the face. And so I think there's a risk of that, right? Where this thing is still piping hot by thing, I mean the global economy, U.S. economy, China just reopened. We're not draining the SPR anymore. We can't do that again. So what does that mean for the year over year inflation rate? Well, I think inflation is a lot stickier than maybe some people would like to believe. It is becoming somewhat entrenched in the minds of consumers and the labor market is still extremely tight. So I think the 2% kind of disinflationary era that we all kind of were present for the last decade. I think that's over. And even if we do kind of hit that 2% arbitrary target again on a year over year basis, I don't think remains there for long. And I could be wrong. But I think probably in that sense, if that is true, if that is a risk factor, and you're going to see those rates in the long end, reprice higher because the rate market is pricing in a pivot in 2024. At least not a pivot, but an easy. So if that doesn't unfold, then there's certainly going to be to be a repricing of risk in the risk free rate. So just something to watch for. Am I trading Bitcoin based on the rates chart on a 30 minute basis? No, I'm not. But I'm actively increasing my dollar position. I'm actually really increasing my Bitcoin position on an automated basis. So yeah, how I think of it. Just something to watch for. I don't think the I don't think the worst of it has unfolded yet. Maybe for Bitcoin asks, I very well could see 15,000 being below. And if I didn't deploy everything then, that's fine. But I don't think we see just up only again without any pain being felt. I don't think that how this all plays out, but it could be wrong.