FED, Fomc, Alex Krueger discussed on CoinDesk Podcast Network


Conditions? What about forward guidance? Quote, from here onwards, we are fully data dependent. Boom, he ditched it completely. Why is it relevant? It all starts from the very strong opinion the bond market has developed about inflation over the last few months. It's going to move down and very fast. Between July 23 and 24, CPI is priced to print at around 2.9%. Basically at target. So if Powell is not nearly on autopilot anymore, and markets have a strong opinion on inflation and growth collapsing, they can also price all other assets around the space case scenario. If you look under the hood, market action also validates this narrative. Who's outperforming here? NASDAQ and crypto. If the fed isn't going to force tighter financial conditions on autopilot anymore, real yields will actually start declining again. When real yields decline, value intensive and risk sentiment driven asset classes outperform. That's because the marginal return for owning cash becomes less attractive and the incentive to chase risk assets is larger. Do I think the rally has legs? I can rationalize the narrative being built post FOMC. But no forward guidance equals a very, very volatile fed ahead of us. One small hawkish turn and it's all gone. You must price in some additional risk premium here not less. Finally, what's the bond market saying? We priced away some hikes between now and December and this is how we are left. 50 in September, 25 and November, 25 and December, done. 50 basis points of cuts in 2023. A higher likelihood that peak fed hawkishness is behind us. So this is really the narrative to watch is peak fed hawkishness behind us. Macro alpha as you heard gives the thesis for why, but also argues that there are so many conditions that could change that very quickly that you have to price in some risk around it. Now one final note as relates to crypto is this new narrative creating space for investors to be seen as making mistakes by being too bearish. Is the new narrative of peak fed hawkishness behind us, creating enough space for internal crypto narratives to become the drivers again. And for investors to be seen as making mistakes for being too bearish. That's a theme being explored by people like Alex Krueger. He wrote today's upwards move so large crypto funds who missed it must now be praying for Amazon or Apple to report horrible earnings tomorrow or for a negative GDP print to load the dip. Hard for a crypto fund to explain to its LPs it missed the Ethereum merge trade because of concerns about the macro. This August shall be bear hunting season. In particular, crypto investors who learned about macro in 2022 remain way too bearish. Will we trade new lows later on? Maybe. It could be a bad winter. Who cares now? First pump forcing those in the sidelines to buy late and in anger. The key is the fed being at peak or close to peak hawkishness, rendering itself somewhat irrelevant for the time being, which is very bullish when most are panicking about the fed. So I think the theme here is that we are moving into a moment a period potentially of much greater volatility. Which doesn't really seem possible, right? Given how wild things have been for the last few months. But you have to remember volatility can be to the upside or the downside. We just don't really know. But for those of you who are hoping for not a long, extended boring crypto winter, at least for now, your wishes come true. I want to say thanks again one more time to my sponsors next to IO, chain analysis and FTX, and thanks to you guys for listening. Until tomorrow be safe and take care of each other. Peace

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