Paul, Twenty Twenty, Times discussed on Scientific Sense
Downstream activity so the P.. M. I. Tends to be only upstream yet and It was interesting because we we were. We were rattled a little bit during twenty nineteen, because their numbers and early twenty twenty, their numbers were lower than ours, and we usually always check to make sure that we're kinda been sink in like I, said those guys are Paul. Leave the gentleman that runs the PM is a friend of ours. And and so we always check to see where you know where we are and and we figured out. You know what this is downstream upstream thing. So not only do we look at it by different types of of companies, but we also look at it by sort of position. In supply chain, and if you go to the website, you can actually see a breakdown. For Twenty Twenty and some of the other months you know sort of? You see for the Times what you can kind of tell when we figured out, Hey, wait a minute. The reason why we're than pm I is because we got downstream as well as upstream in there. So so you can, you can really see the differences between folks that are close to the consumer, versus folks that are are backed ways in spite Jane. It's a really interesting thanks. So we deliberately keep the the respondent based diverse in in an. We liked the look what those differences are. You, you have been doing this for two years now, so you have really four years. For years, yeah, so there's four years a Beta and You mentioned that there was some interesting things to to to see maybe twelve months ago, eighteen months ago, so so, so, what were your operations before this whole thing hit? And then, since then, I guess there is a tradition of inflammation in terms of the Marcus, internalizing the full effects of it so. What did we see maybe twelve months before the couvert actually hit the economy. Well, what we what we saw is anything related to. The consumer was great, but that the upstream activity. Was Cooling, so so what that said is, if things would have stayed the same we were, we were headed into I. Don't I don't WanNa? Say That recession word, and on say the R. Word, but but but we were. You could see the growth leveling off upstream. which all economic. That are based just on GDP. Weren't seeing at all, because the consumer was so hot, so that consumers really high, but about a year and a half ago, we really started seeing, and you can see it. You can get onto the website and see the numbers and. Play with them and we're. We always welcome. Comments and sometimes arguments. You know we're. We actually. We actually take into consideration. What What what people who are really. We got some dumb comments directly, but but most of them. You know many things are very. Thoughtful and many companies are using us. To help them plan a little bit because it's surprising. How accurate we we asked for both this month, and then twelve months from now, what do you expect in and it's interesting how accurate! It's an up until the golden time where that's been so disruptive. None of the predictions included that. Interestingly, though while we've been in Kobe there, really is a strong belief you know there's an optimistic belief via logistics managers that that things are GonNa be better than the year, which is which is interesting and I hope they're right about that. So so it it's. It's been a very interesting it's. It's been a very interesting. And, we just started. It has I was thinking about the PM I, and about how logistics component specifically are good. Indicators of the future and the PM I a great job at they don't include all the stuff that we do. And and and so we thought well..