Colin Quinn, President Trump, Thirty Four Billion Dollars discussed on The CSIS Podcast

The CSIS Podcast
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Automatic TRANSCRIPT

Uhhuh it's friday july sixth i'm colin quinn and welcome to the read eight mexico has a new president mine well lopez over door i'm low as he's known received fifty three percent of the vote more than double the votes of his nearest rival as a committed leftist he's a departure from his more traditional predescessors so it's still unclear i was election we'll check his country's relationship with the united states but i the long threaten trade war between the us on china has begun the trump administration's tariffs on thirty four billion dollars worth of chinese products went into effect a twelve o one am today spokesperson for the chinese ministry of commerce galloping responded may not legit hall it's the us that initiated this trade one we don't want it but if the us can pose additional tariffs on chinese imports china will have to take enter measures cheesy fundraiser and so we know enter own sharkey territory and help us navigate his bill reinsch he's the show chair in international business at csis and one half of the trade guys are sister podcasts that breaks dan what's happening in the world of international trade we begin by looking at how big of an effect this trade war will have on americans well in the short run not much partly because on our side the administration's tried to stay away from consumer items so consumers won't notice a big hit the biggest hit is on farmers because of chinese retaliation they're terrorists focus on agriculture and that's serious for the farmers because it not only means law sales in the short term it may mean market access permanently gone because once the chinese start buying brazilian soybeans they they're not automated coming back to american soybeans the other big hits will be american manufacturers because while the administration avoided tariffs on consumer items that meant they ended up putting tariffs on parts of the components intermediate goods that we use to make stuff and so are manufacturers who make stuff with imported parts and components are getting a double hit their parts and components are going to be more expensive because of our tariffs on chinese goods and they're in products that they're trying to export to china are going to be more expensive because chinese retaliatory taros so they take a double hit that'll take time to play out so in the short run the immediate losers of the farmers everybody else it will take a few months what is the strategy behind this what is the us trying to get china to do that's one of the great mysteries i listen to the frayed guys and and and you can hear multiple opinions on that subject it appears that the administration is divided on what they want some of them have taken the socalled section three oh one report seriously which focuses on chinese intellectual property theft force technology transfer as a condition of doing business discrimination of various kinds against foreign companies and they want all that fixed they want china to change the way it's economy operates and stopped doing that stuff they wanted to abandon made in china twenty twenty five which is it's program for to achieve a global champions in a range of hightech sectors other people administration just want to reduce the deficit and which can be done if china buys more of our stuff that problem can be solved the first problem is much harder to solve these time the chinese stop doing what's good for you start doing what's good for us that's a hard lift a heavy lift so far the president has said i want both he's declined to make a choice so it appears we want everything and he thinks the tariffs is our way to get there are the you is the us is a market strong enough to actually create that change in behavior or that's the gamble i guess they're trying to make well he thinks so that's the gamble yes most observers think not but you know we'll see maybe he's right but this is this is a five act play it's not short attention span theater this is going to play out over over weeks and months he said that if the chinese retaliate which they did he'll add more tariffs probably another two hundred billion if he does that he won't be able to avoid consumer items because that's just so much stuff the most obvious consumer items that we get from china are laptop computers and.

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