Matthews Andy, Theresa May, Julius discussed on BTV Simulcast
Been torpedoed with opposition parties granted an emergency debate on whether the government is in content for refusing to release the legal advice over the draft. Not Theresa May was hoping to start the discussion later today saying that the deal delivers on the G on the on the twenty sixteen referenda, but the speaker of the house, John berko has agreed that there is a case for saying that the government is in content of Julius is with me Matthews is still with us. I mean here we go. Another harpoon in Theresa May's Brexit Bill which will come to the highs from a distance as you look into the UK. Some people have said to me this trays like an emerging market at the moment has it really got that much of a hallmark of dysfunctionality. Well, the short answer is. Yes, it does. But I guess that's a sign of a healthy democracy. And the concern I think people have is that this latest legality that that has popped up could cause a delay in the vote on Brexit that were supposed to happen on December eleven and then the further that's pushed away, perhaps the greater the likelihood that people who would vote for it. They will drop in the projections are that she could miss the vote already by something like two hundred. So, you know, the longer it's delayed and the more more kind of chaos theory is. Perhaps a greater likelihood that it wouldn't even get through. I don't think anybody really expected the first vote to be successful. Anyway. Okay. I mean, take that as the base case scenario, some people are saying on the labour ventures. They would then call a motion of no confidence in the government. There's a risk. There is a risk that the government could fall. This brings me to the gilt market. I wanna show you this job. This is ten years versus thirty years in the gills and the proposition, by the way by Marcus Ashworth. It's in the GT library is that you potentially have a buyers strike going on here on the longer days paper because of the risk a tail risks that labor exceeds to power play pro quo spending inflation, you don't wanna own gilts. That's got that's got married. That theory hasn't it? Well, I think in an a labor government certainly viewed be a lot of people would run away from the UK and the pound would go down. I don't know what that would do to the financial markets. Ironically, could be actually quite good for the footsie. At least I'm not so sure about the bond market. But I know that in the footsie the big companies, you know, they're over most of their earnings come from overseas. So. Markets have a funny way of of working, but there are always opportunities. And I think one would be collapse from the pound would be incentive to own shares. But as far as I'm sorry, I can't help you too much there. Okay, mark. Let's let let's see what that potential terrorists. Looks like as we go towards the vote in the house of Commons mall Matthews Andy and head of Asia research for Julius joining us this morning.