Berkshire, Buffet, Warren Buffett discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast
The Florida's you mentioned before stands one hundred twenty nine billion dollars. How do you see Burke Chef perform when it comes to macchia and profitability in the next day Kate specifically for the Insurance Division? I do recognize that. They are very disciplined in their underwriting. And the data point that I use to back that up as that. They've underwritten profitably in sixteen of the last seventeen years. That's a pretty good track record. If you know the insurance industry I found it very interesting that it seems like Geico's been the little slow to adopt telematics which things like snapshot that progressive has which is basically trying to figure out like. How much risk do you actually take while you're driving? Are you speeding or are you accelerating or slamming on your brakes all the time which is surprising to me given? Geico's history Of targeting originally government employees. That's the GE part of GE ICO so they were looking for operations that had lower risk profiles and one way of ascertaining that would be to keep track of how people actually drive and then base their insurance rates on this telematics idea but in the plus side of the category for them is that they've always had such a bulletproof balance sheet that they've been able to underwrite that no one else would really be able to take on. They've always operated at like one less deal than they could've been doing all along or one less big insurance underwriting thing and other companies even insurance industry I've seen their operating much closer to the full deals that they could do or even sometimes taking on leverage to do one more deal than they could've done and then they're always kind of digesting that deal so what it allows Berkshire to do is to use a lot of that float and invested into equities which earned quite a bit more than what most people were earning in their floats all the other insurance companies because they've stayed so far away from the edge of being bold deal maximize irs and full underwriting capabilities so they're conservative. Nature in a paradoxical way has allowed them to actually take more risk with their float. Better security portfolio. I've noticed the thing too about underwriting with prophet sixteen seventeen years and buffet has been very upfront by saying that he does not expect that to continue happening and you can put a lot of different things into not comment. Obviously wanted us that. Buffet always likes to play. Whatever he's saying. I mean giving the low interest red level. You would expect for this to continue at least for quite some time. The reason why I'm saying that as given the low interest rate you supposed to underwrite with the Prophet because the risk return you can get elsewhere. A lot of that goes into equity due to different regulations on all that can be put into equities. There was this matching principle so depending on the length of the claim You have to buy even long bonds which might seem a bit weird. These states interest rate. But that's just the way it is. It's not something we can do too much about. I'm sure buffet would if he could. But unfortunately that's not the case but the other thing that I found really interesting about how buffet has been addressing. The insurance business is also that concern shareholder Hussein with global warming with everything. That's been going on. What can we expect in terms of claims to Berkshire and he says you know most of these things by definition of renewed so like he can set new premiums and what he's saying is as much as it might seem bad one year. A lot of things happening from an insurance perspective. He's actually a good thing. Because the premiums would just go up and the mole uncertainty though are the better ensure because so many companies have to have insurance now Jig. Let's talk about the growing cast pile. It has been heavily debated for years among the shareholders off burks Halloway and today cast and chiltern investments are one hundred twenty eight billion dollars whenever I say. Today don't mean today much nine after the stock market has been tumbling for weeks. Now I mean that's the latest filing that have cast pile similar to what it was in Q. Three Twenty nineteen so as far as we know it's not growing but it stagnated at very high level. Well you know. I woke up this morning. And the market was down five percent plus and we had circuit breakers going so on days like today. You kind of have to love that cash pile right. I mean it's the optionality on it is growing with every tick down. I love the anti fragility of that cash pile when you combine that with Warren Buffett's cap allocation skills. He's proven that he can put up. Great numbers especially when the opportunities come along. I should say the only thing that I don't like about it is that it makes me a little bit sad that it's possible that he could be waiting for this one last chance to do some big deals that. Sorta cement his legacy. I've seen this before where grandparents are holding on to see that oldest kid graduate from college or something and then once it happens then they kind of let go a little bit and it'd be sad to think that longer that we can delay a crash and him putting money to work. Maybe the more time we get with him. I would be a little bit sad if he was able to bag that last elephant and now he's like I've done everything I need to do in this lifetime and I'm ready to move on but people typically do is look at decisive his portfolio and the thing here the year end it was around two hundred and forty odd billion dollars and then the look at the cast position and say wow he is a lot in cash that's not how buffet looks at it. He said actually just two weeks ago. I'm approximately twin percent cash right now and I'm that because I'm including the three hundred plus billion dollars in upbringing businesses plus we have multiple secure. It is and then we have cash if you do. The numbers is a different way of looking at it. He's looking had eight. Percent Equity is twenty percent cash. Who knows perhaps with everything that's been happening? He's not so much in passing anymore and the real ties into my next Christian. Warren Buffett kicked his stock buyback procam into high gear. Here lately spending two point two billion dollars on share purchase in the last three months of two thousand nineteen. And that's the most ever. He's done in a single quarter now. This is not significant. Pets the my cup of more than five hundred billion dollars and a lot of investors. See this estimate tunes. It's loading up on shares. It should also be noted here that the trading volume berkshire-hathaway is exceptionally low. So in that sense of buybacks yeahs. Buffet is restricted differently than other. Ceo's if he wants to repurchase a high numbers yes because he's so easily moves surprise he's been talking about how he look within the at the Osa who could buy back three four five percent without moving price but because of the volume of Berkshire hathaway she asked that is just Solo. He's been talking about or at least he's been hinting. He doesn't talk too much about it but he's been hinting of. Just one percent can actually move the needle in terms of influencing the price. But as much as we'll talk about later. What do you read into the stock buyback here? Siphon the obvious fact that buffet at times have found the shares modestly undervalued as. He puts his in his letter a lot of people. I talked to like to think that this buyback program puts a floor under the Stock. And he's talked before about in the one point two to one point three times book value ranges aware. Berkshire will kind of quote unquote defend the Stock Price. But not sure if I think that that's true or not. I think Mr Market can do a lot of crazy. Things in that can still apply to Berkshire. They'd spent five billion dollars over the last year to buy back one percent of the company. Roughly so that's in like two hundred dollars. A share for the B shares on the other side is selling. That's something that I always like to ask myself. And when it comes to Berkshire shares most of them are locked up in families who own the company. It's not the typical company that's owned by institutions or even like index funds. It's very under represented in indexes. Because of that so. I don't think that you may be get as much panic. Selling either there so maybe it's unlikely to go on crazy sale as much as other companies. I think I personally think that he would be better off looking for that next deal than buying out partners within. Berkshire itself and I don't think that there's a lot of willing sellers that will part with their shares at the prices. That are really mouth watering from a buyback perspective. It's just not the dynamics that I see in the company ownership structure. I think you bring up a good point because if you look at the ownership manual what he wants to do the least is to repurchase yash he wants to buy wonderful businesses and even before that he wants to build a widen the mortar round the assistant businesses. You wants to buy gas and other companies before he wants to buy out his own partners as he puts it is interesting especially at these prices ride now at the time of courting bricks hell awaits trading at one hundred ninety five and it would be interesting to see how much he loads up on his own. Yes in Q. Four if you look at the numbers the average spying price just for that quarter was two hundred fifteen so it might be well he would be buying back then but keep in mind that s the price of Berkshire hathaway's now trading much more appealing prices. So as more or less all the stocks on the planet you bring up a good point good. Cap Allocation is thinking of your shareholders as your business partners. And if you're buying back from them at breezy low prices you're benefiting one group of your shareholders at the expense of another and you're neglecting your duty as a captain of industry and as an allocated capital and a steward of capitalism by taking advantage of one party over another. I think you almost have a moral duty to try to keep your stock price. Trading close to the intrinsic value so that If some partner of Yours Aka shareholder needs liquidity for something. Perhaps they have to pay for a surgery. Or there's a charitable thing that there's really important to them that they need the liquidity. You should do what you can to help them. Get the liquidity that they need to run their lives. I think that there's a lot of good that can be done. The no one really talks about in capitalism by a CEO who keeps one shareholder group from taking advantage of the other too much. So that's really interesting. So buffet has mentioned in his letter to shareholders that ninety eight percent of his shareholders going into the year are the same shareholders. Going out at the end of the year and I think it's kind of an interesting metric because it shows you how strong his share by can be if he decided to use his significant cash position to conduct the buybacks. So something else I want to ask you about. Jake is your opinions on Warren. And Charlie's age There are many people that will argue that they're the true competitive advantage or at least significant portion of of the Companies Competitive Advantage. But as we all know Warren is going to be ninety. Charlie's ninety five ninety six years old. So what are your thoughts about the company with them eventually? Going TO BE REPLACED. Yeah I mean you really kind of have to get comfortable with answering. The question is Berkshire a man or is Berkshire a culture or is Berkshire and ethos or even maybe like an operating system for a business super.