BOJ, Bloomberg, U.S. discussed on BTV Simulcast


That together. What's your recession probability number is a heist for Bloomberg? Well, Bloomberg economics monitor, I've pegged it at around 70 odd percent for U.S. recession. Sometime next year, a globally people are starting to talk about it now, maybe a 50 50 chance. I think Citigroup was out this week. They said 50% chance with global recession right now. The big debate comes down to then what kind of conversation will it be either in the U.S. or globally? We know the kind of backstories meant to be consumers have tash, a bank term better order and that this time around the economy should be better placed for a kind of a shallow recession or a shorter live recession at least. That's a big unknown. And that's the big trade off the policy makers are facing, but this language from Jerome pile again he said in the testimony yesterday. He said a recession is not inevitable. He's trying to talk up the economy, but I think most people are aging towards now at the very least, both the U.S. economy and global economy are certainly headed towards a Steve soda and it's not something in the order territory. Okay, and thank you very much. And the car and there were the very latest probability statistical analysis on recession watch. That's what Japan's key inflation gauge has stayed above the BOJ's target level of 2%, a result that will likely keep the speculation alive over a possible policy adjustment at the center of bank. Let's get to our Japan economy editor, Paul Jackson, Paul, the issue is what triggers a response from the BOJ, is it the currency? Is it inflation? What's the latest take after the inflation data? Well, I think you've mentioned some of the key points there already. We're at 2.1%. So this isn't like inflation crisis, digit reaction required mister Corona. No, no. But at the same time, we've got the three factors really, the yen, getting weaker. Pressure on bond yields. And political pressure. They're the three things that I think could move the BOJ to change policy. The moment curta says the inflation is not sustainable and he must keep course, keep the stimulus going, keep interest rates at rock bottom levels to ensure the recovery continues and that inflation feeds through into wages and we get a sustainable loop. Yeah, but the moment relatively contained on the eastern front and Japan at least with the dalliance of a 105 Paul, thank you very much for that Paul Jackson. Japan economy editor. I want to get to another important story in that as Wall Street's biggest bank, stay in east, defense annual stress test, paving the way for billions of dollars in shareholder payouts that set out to Bloomberg zucchini for more. So what details then emerge from the numbers exactly. Who did how well? Well, 30 of the biggest banks here in the U.S. were evaluated 30 past and what the fed says and it's very important is that all of these banks showed they were able to withstand a severe recession and that's very important given the current macro environment were in, specifically, they demonstrated that they were able to stay above the fed's capital minimums when faced with a mock crisis that the fed throughout them. They tested these banks with hypothetical scenarios announced back in February when they seemed a bit far fetched, lucid and see if they don't sound quite as far fetched. Now, widening corporate bonds spread a collapse in asset prices, increase in market volatility, a surge in unemployment in a crash and commercial real estate. That was the scenario. And for major firms, such as JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, they also faced a made up market shock that tested the resiliency of their trading operations. Again, I'll pass. You're looking at year to date stock performance for the banks

Coming up next