President Trump, Agence France Presse discussed on Bloomberg Businessweek


I'm just wondering you met with the president last month did you have any advice for him when it came to this and did you expressed some concerns about potential volatility in the impact of the economy on given all this you know I but I'm gonna stick with my and my **** predecessors long time practice of not discussing private meetings with elected officials or other officials real I thank you thank you using the multi was Agence France Presse yesterday democratic leaders in the house have launched an impeachment process against the president have you mention these developments within the committee yes put today as potentially presenting some risk for their confidence in the economy no we're not we we don't consider things like that like the Mike to reductions whose wires does the fed stoplight still serve a useful communications purpose or do you feel that it might be time to retire or change in some fashion please I think properly understood it can be useful but that's been a challenge a nice I think properly understood to me means looking at what it is and and not of what it isn't and what it is is it's an expression of the thinking about individual committee members about appropriate monetary policy in the path of the economy remember that we write all that down and we we send it in and it gets compiled but we don't discuss at the meeting and we don't negotiate a play there is no there's no agreement there's no plan I think particularly at inflection points it's hard to convey the reality which is that policy is always going to depend on the economic outlook and changes in the economic outlook and when economic outlook is changing the dots are just not a consideration we're gonna do what we think is the right thing for the economy if the fact dots that we did six months ago or three months ago don't agree with that that's not even in the conversation so it's more but it can be useful if and I think but as I said it's been a challenge and so I I do I do like to say if you focus too much on the dots you can you can miss the broader picture right background from marketwatch chairman Tom many people seem worried that the four framework that you guys are working on it is going to be the results are going to be less rather than more and I people keep coming back and saying why asking why you took off like a four percent inflation rate off the table even when it started I mean as you said if going around the country for other listen events at I don't think I heard anybody's worry about a four percent inflation rate or think that higher inflation rate was going to be a problem so where does that concern come from is it members of Congress that have have said this no Tony say were were wrong good working on this all year and we're just at the stage where we've had a really interesting discussion about the various tools that we have at the October meeting at this meeting we talked about the wave monetary policy affects different groups in the economy so we had it we we talked about the fed listens events and and some very interesting research so but we're just getting to the stage where we're looking at conclusions you know what we take away from all this and those things many of those things would wind up as as changes if you will modifications to the statement of a longer run goals monetary policy strategy I think that process will take until the middle of the year were but we want to we want to approach it very thoroughly in very carefully and that is in effect that is our framework document and I wouldn't pre judge no known if I'm I believe we will be able to to reach a successful conclusion and and make meaningful improvements I do in terms of four percent so that's that yeah I think it's premature for people to be saying that this isn't going anywhere you know and if you define going anywhere as a four percent inflation target when we talk about the the four percent inflation target so I'll go back to the point that just saying words is not itself credible so I think if you if you said were raising inflation target to four what would be the effect of that rewards the credibility and that really you you you haven't been able to get it to to so I think we I think you need to lower your cycle but I also think is four percent but you have to ask the question is that really you know price stability is that really price stability is that in that with our legal mandate I mean I think it's a it's a fair question so I you know well I think I'd I'd like for this review to come out with it with a very positive positive result you know with meaningful improvements it doesn't mean it has to solve every problem going forward we we want we want to have this be a successful exercise where we meaningfully improve our monetary policy framework these things don't tend to move in in you know in all the allergy way they tend to evolve but I think and if we do this then in a few years again and again things like that then we can get them Lisa moving in a good direction I think we will be I'm I'm comfortable tell me what the LA times if it is here and I'm wondering as you look back what things you might have done differently and is there any lessons that that you would take into next year well you know how to say might might total focuses on right now and getting policy right and and thinking about next year you know thinking about what's the economy going to be doing I like where we on policy as I mentioned I think or by policy stance is appropriate and likely to remain so long as the outlook is probably like this you know I mean it's it's of this too long of a question that you know I I I don't know how to how to get after that there's there's a lot of learning that comes into if from the economy every year and in the way we do our jobs and you know we're always gonna be trying to learn lessons on it are there any particular surprises that whether it's the economy or how markets or financial well I so yeah I did I didn't obviously you know I didn't see it I don't think anybody saw coming the the challenges that we face this year I think they were a surprise I think the the toward the end of two thousand and and and eighteen there were still since the economy was growing at around three percent and I didn't didn't expect the the to face the challenges but I think we we I think we did face them and I think we I I'm pleased that we would move to support the economy in the way that we did I think our moves will we'll prove appropriate and again I I I think both the economy and monetary policy right now I think we're in a good place Nancy Nancy Marshall cancer for market place Paul why aren't we seeing stronger wage gains wages are growing more slowly now than they were toward the beginning of the year why is that well wage gains have moved up a bit if you look back three four years you'll see wages are going around two percent now you see them moving up you know more three three and a half percent so why are the growing tired of it at a faster rate it's a couple of things I think their range of explanations principle one would be that productivity has just been low so what wages should go up to cover inflation and productivity productivity has been hello and that that is very likely be holding back wages I also think there are there other possible a potential explanations such as you know globalization can be can be the idea that you can make manufacturer or even provide services anywhere in the world to anywhere in the world I think that hangs over the wage setting process and everywhere pretty much you don't see it there there isn't the kind of traction in in the wage market that even in a in a tight labor market another thing is though that the labor market may not be as tight as we had thought it was and you know that I think they're they're they're many many possible explanations I will say though if you look look for example at non supervisory employees at the end in the in the labor report their their wages going up three point seven percent and so you do you do see and and wages are going up the most for people at the lower end of the of the that's been true for the last couple years lower in the weight spectrum so you do see which is moving up it's just they're not moving up at at very high rates and again at the end of the day that probably has most to do with productivity yeah just as far as the market not being as tight as she thought are you saying they're still more people on the sidelines who could join the labor force yes I I would also say that we if you ask people and we did ask people what do you think the natural unemployment as people writing down numbers in the fives and the rain the numbers on the force and now unemployment spin in the threes for a year and a half and we still see wage inflation as you mentioned the level of wage inflation is actually moved down although there may be compositional effects and that number that maybe that maybe to some extent about younger workers coming in at lower wages that that retired workers but you you wouldn't that shouldn't have much of an effect actually so why is it may it may just be that that there's more slack in the economy and and I think we are seeing that we're seeing it really it showed up through higher participation for many years we thought that there's a trend decline in participation not withstanding that again against that trend we've seen prime age participation moving up pretty steadily over the last two or three years and that's a very positive thing but it does sort of provide more labor supply meeting a less tight labor market and hi paneling with American banker thanks for being here today I just wanted to ask about the community reinvestment act since the FDIC in OCC may potentially joined together with a for a proposal without the fat are you concerned that this might cause confusion and how with the mechanics work if this proposal is finalized without the fan so one in a week we think the C. R. A. we know this area is a very important law and we're strongly committed to the mission of insuring that banks provide credit to their to their throughout their communities particularly addressing the needs of low and moderate income households and neighborhoods we also think it's time for modernization we thought that for some time and we worked we worked very hard to try to get aligned with with UCC really on on a proposal and my hope is that we can still do that you know I don't know whether they'll be possible or not it we'll have to we'll just have to see but and if we can if we can't I don't I don't not sure with the pass for would be we would certainly not want to create confusion or you know a sort of tension between the regime's if they if they don't do turn out to be slightly differently games so that's something we I hope we don't have to face but we will if we have to right Brian Cheung with Yahoo finance so before the July meeting you said something that kind of colorfully said to call something high you would need to see some heat referring to the labor market so we spent a bit I guess on Nancy's question seems like the wage filter responded pretty well export already but what would you need to see to to call the labor market hot in that case would be a contract rather a some sort of change in either the headline number of games or in the unemployment rate early wages I mean we there's so many other measures that suggest that the labor market is I like this a live market is strong I don't really want to say that it's tight some someone asked me a question a hot labor market that was in the Humphrey Hawkins hearings is so I'll say that really work is strong I don't know that it's tight because you're not seeing wage increases you know ultimately if it's tight those should be review should be reflected in higher wage increases so does come down to that you know right there we look at countless measures of of labor market here labor utilization and and they're so many it it's too many to count but the one that has that is kind of suggesting that year it's a healthy number that you know the sort of three point one percent average hourly earnings numbers a decent number three point seven percent for production supervisor workers is more healthy ultimately though we'd like to see to call it hot you'd want to see he would want to see you know higher wages thanks and that was fed chairman Jay Powell concluding his news conference the final one of twenty eight twenty nineteen twenty nineteen this is the fight decides on Bloomberg television and radio I'm Starland alongside Jason Kelly and Carol Nasser the highlights from the federal reserve chairman's news conference he was a fairly dovish tone here you make clear that the fed will not raise rates until inflation is at two percent or higher in fact he said some participants penciled in inflation overshoots in their outlooks as well and in response to Michael McKee's question he indicated that there is flexibility on plans to widen expand the.

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