Donovan Smith, Texas Tech, Zach Kitley discussed on Bet The Board

Bet The Board


Lots of talk about a quarterback battle heading into fall camp personally, you know, what I'm hearing is it's Tyler shucks to lose. He's got the pedigree, right? And you're looking at a pass first offense, shucks proven to be far more accurate than Donovan Smith to this point. Last season, shucks adjusted accuracy was 12% better in a similar sample size to Smith. Now, Donovan Smith obviously brings more mobility, possibly more future upside as well. But in addition to the accuracy discrepancy, you can see in the metrics shuck process is much faster, about a half a second quicker with his release. And that's one of the key reasons shuck was pressured on 11% less dropbacks than Smith. So if you do have this O line question mark, you're probably better going to shuck just because much faster processor much quicker release. And that's going to help the O line as well. Other thing I like about Zach kitley is what his western Kentucky offenses did in confined spaces, which is kind of the knock on spread offenses in these chuck and duck systems. Kit Lee's hilltop or offense averaged 5 points per quality possession. 4.7 points per trip inside the 40 and we're inside the top 30 and third and fourth down success right now. Certainly the personnel is different and it's a huge upgrade and opponent strikes switching conferences. But it's nice to have a substantial sample and see kitley spread off and didn't really bog down and confined space. As we're schedule. Tech's going to face 60 fences projected inside our top 35 inefficiency. That's the caveat. Overall, text only favored in three games, hosting Murray, West Virginia, Kansas, close to a pick him at home to Houston. I think from a fan's perspective, the schedule is great. It's fun hosting Texas Baylor and Oklahoma. If you're going to the games, those three home games aren't insurmountable, our projection has Texas tech in the range of plus 6 against both Texas and Baylor and plus 9 versus Oklahoma. But from a win output, you'd rather host more winnable games. You'd rather host K state TCO and Iowa state in my mind because those are some of the more coin flip games. Now again, from a fan's perspective, you know, load up the schedule for fun interesting games that we can get plastered in, but out in the parking lot. But you want when we're talking about winning games and momentum and trajectory. You want your winnable games at home. You want your coin flip games at home. The games that you're probably going to lose anyways throw those on the road. It's an interesting team because you talked about the quarterbacks there and from reading reports and your guys may have better Intel about the level of optimism around baron Morton arguably being the most complete quarterback there. Albeit extremely green and probably not ready to step right into the limelight and start at quarterback this year, but curious to see his ongoing development. We know jewelry Maguire recruiting the state exceptionally well and this is a team clearly on the rise. One of the big hires that they did make also to bolster the defense was bringing in Tim de ruder from Oregon. Back in Texas for the first time since 2010 and 2011, also brings over Marcel Yates with him to work with the defensive backs. And when you look at jarus past, he's typically leaned on a 5 defensive back formation and that's where most of the athletes and difference makers come from in his scheme and the past three seasons as a defensive coordinator. He's used three defensive linemen more than 96% of the time use 3D lime in them more than 99% of snaps in 2019 and 2020 and Cal. But in 2021, he started to tinker with four defensive linemen sets. When I look at Texas tech defensively, hey look, I'm not splitting the atom here or telling any of our listeners something they don't already know. To be competitive in this league, you have to have athletes on the stop unit in Texas tech has a long way to go to competing with some of the top powers there. They're going to need krishan merriweather to be the guy controlling that linebacking core was named spring MVP, but he's going to be asked to fill a big hole vacated by Colin schooler Enrico Jeffers. Yeah, I mean, listen, this comes down to coaching pedigree. Joey Maguire worked under a defensive wizard like Dave Aranda and his specialized at linebacker and he brings in Tim de ruder who we respect for changing cows defensive profile. Was promoted both in paying stature taking the organ D.C. job. And then Mario leaves chose not to take him to Miami. He lands here at Texas tech. But if you look at the rooters past, Cal was a 107th and schedule adjusted efficiency of the year before he arrived. Within two seasons, cow was 14. That type of progression probably likely to happen at Texas tech. But I would expect improvement after a few seasons for sure. Also expect a far more aggressive defense both in blitz rate and the way de ruder plays his corners. First pass in the spring games of pick 6. Secondary appears to be the strength, although not a ton of depth there. But what we saw under the last regime was a lot of drop coverages. And if you're going to play that style, you also can't get beat deep, which is what happened outside the top 100 and explosiveness allowed. Aside from Tyree Wilson, who registered an 11% pressure rate on password snaps, not a lot of guys along the D line that can win their one on one matchup. Manufacturing pressure is needed here. I think certainly help a defense. That was a 124th on standard down sack rate. One thing is pretty clear here. By the metrics with college football and football in general, you get pressure, you get stops. No pressure, you get roasted. So among power 5 defenses, Texas tech was hovering around the bottom ten and pressure rate that equated to the third worst EPA per play allowed. Other area that should progress because of positive regression and Tim der is their situational defense. Texas tech would play a passive style of defense, like I mentioned, right? And then break as well when opponents penetrated their territory. If you're going to play a Ben style, you can also break. They allowed 4.6 points per trip inside their 40. That was outside the top 100. Couldn't get off the field on the money downs either outside the top one 20 and third and fourth down success rate a lot. The talent is not there. But you

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