Federal Reserve, James Gorman, United States discussed on Bloomberg Best


And I'm Bryan Curtis. In Hong Kong. Let's get you. This hour's top business stories and the markets were live in the Bloomberg. Interactive brokers studio, the prophets of Chinese industrial companies dropped for the second consecutive month profits declined one point nine percent last month from a year earlier, China's manufacturing companies are under pressure with output growth and slowest in a decade. Asian stocks have edged higher ahead of U S China trade talks in a meeting of the Federal Reserve Mark read from Mizzou ho says the change in policy positioning by the fed has been key to risk assets. In Asia, we continue to think that fed policy stance. It's absolutely critical for for every risk. Whether it be equities Asian credit and the monetary policy stance that was saying at the moment foreshadows a. I guess it continued rally in risk assets for the next couple of months. At least the US treasury department lifted sanctions on three firms tied to Russian tycoon Ola der Pasqua included in that is United. Resolve which traded up four point four percent. In Hong Kong aluminum prices fell in London pasta himself remains under US sanctions and his property will remain blocked, apple supplier, Japan display saw its shares dip as much as six percent today. The company responded to a Japanese media report on its earnings it acknowledged that the outlook for its current financial year was harsh company said it was still calculating third quarter earnings but said the smartphone market had slumped due to China's economy, the slow down there and also the US China trade war stock traded down about three and a half percent. Let's get a quick check of the markets here. Thank index is up four tenths of one percent. Chinese stocks in Shanghai are up about a third of a percent one market. It's lagging today is Tokyo. The Nikkei as down four tenths of one percent. Global news twenty four hours a day live at a tick talk on Twitter and powered by twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts in one hundred twenty countries. In Hong Kong, I'm Bryan Curtis. This is Bloomberg. I'm June Grasso. And I'm Ed Baxter. Morgan Stanley chairman James Gorman is saying the gloom and doom around the global economy may have been overdone. He also expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates one or two times this year, so June. Bloomberg's Erik Shatskikh has spoken with a CEO at the World Economic Forum in Davos, yes, the markets had a very difficult December. Yes, says a lot of political uncertainty right now. But the underlying economic growth, you look at the numbers in the US, you need eighty thousand jobs in the us to basically hold unemployment rate is unemployment wind up with three hundred thousand jobs that means a lot of people came into the workforce who went in. So wait, listen, I'm I think the economy is slowing globally. Slowing in the US swimming in China to LA discount that doesn't mean that we're in any sort of crisis type mode that people like to talk themselves into you. And so many other people who were here a year ago. We're hopeful that by this point, we wouldn't be talking about Brexit again. We are would you say James that based on what has happened over the past few weeks. The base case now has to be a hard Brexit. Well, firstly we hold. It didn't hear every year and I make some predictions. And I said there were three things we wouldn't be talking about this here. B B and B stood for bitcoin stood for rocket, man. The second was bricks that I was dead wrong on that. I got no idea. I mean, how how could anybody project at this point in the UK parliament count figure out what the right answer is? I suspect everybody has a vice against a hot exit. What that solution is they county agree on? But they've all agreed on that. How exit would be bad or bricks would be bad as a firm or are you ready for that? Yes. Brexit, candidly, the sound selfish. It's not that big a deal for us. We already have operations across all of Europe. We will set up a headquarters in Frankfurt, we've already organized for that to happen. We have employees and infrastructure there. We will manage whatever happens. But you know, I'm not worried about Morgan Stanley. I am worried about the impact it would have particularly on the UK. And then, of course, the rest of your, but particularly the UK it's just not a good outcome. No for no one, including your. Speaking of no one James, no one is talking about fed hikes anymore. It's now when is the fed going to ease, and perhaps more pressingly what on earth is the going to do because it's still suck stock if you will. At zero. Have we already hit the peak the peak in this tightening cycle don't think so I think I think Tokyo of easing is premature. Standard Camila who's phenomenal investor. I think was interviewed by you. If I recall recently, and he said, the fed should always try and sneak in interest rates almost interest rate increases when people have watching. Now other words when the times that good push a little harder, and it gives you monetary flexibility. When the times a bed in my view, the fed did not do that in two thousand and sixteen and seventeen hundred had the chance it had the opportunity eighteen they pushed in full rate increases, which was the right thing to do. But raise the ante on too much suddenly to lace was in many people's view. The problem was the aggregate increases went that high. So we confront the market some people in the market have projecting a rate cut this year. I don't see that happening. But I certainly don't see three or four increases. Post. Some prediction is it'll be one or two and currently. Again, the US economy is doing great. So the feds gutted got this sort of dual mandate of inflation and jobs and on both of those issues four continued increasing, but very modestly. If in fact, that's the scenario we end up with what will you need to do to position the firm for more stimulating environment. Should just add to that area. There's a lot of discussion around data dependency with the fed of the fed be looking at economic data or in addition market, data and consumer sentiment. And I think as we get further into this rating crease hike period the mall, the tilt should be towards what is the market able to solve what impact is it. Having on liquidity. What impact is it having on a basis because that will change, and that ultimately changed behavior changes economic outcomes James has been a lot of attention on your fourth quarter results, particularly fixed income trading and on your conference call what the supporting our clients clarify. We had a billion and a half prophet. As a firm net income, I know we've lost a little bit of money, and you're talking about five and ten million dollar type losses in certain voting. Certain client positions. That's just not material. Eric coming on the real story in the fourth quarter was with the turmoil in the markets in December. We didn't trade as well as we could have been fixed income we supported at CLYDE stood in the back of them created liquidity for them, and we took some modest losses from the fixed. Income business have been great. It might have generated another two hundred million. We still made eight point six eight point eight billion revenue did you support clients more aggressively because you saw an opportunity to be there when they needed you most. So that you can pick up a larger percentage of that shrinking wallet chair in fixed income we had record revenues for the forty wrinkled pretexts record earnings record wealth management, revenues record investment banking revenues and Erica this business was number one in the world. It was a phenomenal year with a bed December and lost two months of November. That was Morgan Stanley chairman James Gorman and coming up Bank of America, CEO, Brian moynahan. This is Bloomberg. What do you hedge funds and other alternative.

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