Europe, China, Israel discussed on Hugh Hewitt
May have missed this yesterday. And all the news of Jesse small, and Brexit and Israel this from the New York Times, Andrew Marshall, a Pentagon strategist who helped shape American military thinking on the civil Union, China and other global competitors. For more than four decades died on Tuesday in Alexandria, Virginia. He was ninety seven his death confirmed. Jag Jamie, Dornan, his executor, Mr. Marshall is director of the opposite of net assessment with the secretive futurist of the Pentagon, a long range thinker who both product and inspired secretaries of defense and high level policymakers virtually unknown among the wider public. He came to be revered inside. The defense department is a mysterious iota like figure who embodied an exceptionally long institutional memory. Well, I'll betcha wasn't a Yoder. My next guest, Admiral, James Stavridis. Former supreme allied commander of NATO former commander of southern command thirty three years in the service of the United States navy Admiral good morning now with the Carlisle group at op and up early with me. Good morning. I you must've known Andrew Marshall. Extremely well. And very sad to learn of his passing. I think appropriately it was announced at least publicly by Representative maximum berry who is the head of the House Armed Services committee, Hugh, it's impossible to overstate the impact that Andy Marsh was had onto strategy over the last four decades now unpack that for a civilian audience because I'll betcha they've never heard of Andy. I bet you they have. No, I I never met him. But I've heard about him for years. I bet you they don't know what the office of net assessment is. And the idea maybe even of defense department strategy is alien to a bunch of my listeners believe it or not the department of defense thinks a lot about strategies. So when you say that assessment what you're doing is looking at your opponents and looking at yourself your resources, you are looking at what you want to accomplish. And how you are doing. Yes. Anderson strategy, right? It's ends ways. And means where do you wanna go? What do you have to do to get there? And Andy Marshall was a master at looking at that balance. And I'll give you two practical examples one is in nuclear weapons, cold more unschooled. It was Andy who came up with the basic series of how we apply deterrence in the nuclear world. And then Secondly is the Cold War came to an end, Andy. Sobbed before any of us, the rise of China and became very central to creating the strategy. That is just now kind of edging into public view this balance between the US and China so among many other things nuclear weapons in China. And then lastly back to the Yoda allusion. He was someone who mentor people like batteries out talents as the current negotiator who solving the problem. We hope in Afghanistan, he was a mentor, Don Rumsfeld. That's how far back eke out some. It's really remarkable that a lot of Americans don't understand their some patriots who just serve and servants servants serve. And Andrew Marshall was one of them. I was on the Nixon library on on Tuesday on Monday, excuse me that for people to learn I'm going to take the place back over in July two system the legacy project, but I met bug McFarland on that day and former national security McFarland advisor McFarland was given the seminar too much grad students, and I went in and listen to seminar for about fifteen minutes. You talked about two things the opening to China how that was run out of the NSA and the initiative how that was birthed at the NSA, and you know, he was at the NSA with Nixon for China, and he was at the NSA with Reagan for STI, but I'll bet you Andy Marshall had a role in both of those initiatives. And in particular is STI because he came out of the RAND Corporation which worked, which of course, is a think tank you've worked on that in the very early stages in again, the Chinese functionality that he drove into our strategy was just remarkable in another thing to be inspirational to all of us his longevity in his seventies. And eighties and nine he was still absolutely firing on all cylinders as one of the most influential defense thinkers in the nation ninety seven years old yesterday when he passed away just an amazing career someone someone's got to have a symposium on any Marshall. Let me turn the more practical immediate things Admiral Stavridis because it gets you once a week to talk about some of this. Of course, you were the supreme allied commander of NATO. So you know, Europe as a single military unit Europe is falling apart. It's breaking apart. And the Brexit debate is going to break Britain, or it's going to break the one of the others. But what do you see when you watch that slow burn? Jacob me. Margarite today, saying half, a blow is better than no bread. In other words, take the may deal. What do you see happening? I think they should take deal. Let's back up for one second to your first point Europe falling apart. I it's not just brakes think of it. Geographically to the north. The Brits are pulling out to the east. You see the polls in the Hungarians who are moving away from Brussels, very strongly into the south talion, led by prime minister are among the most anti you. And then in the center, you have Micron in France who was under extreme pressure because these yellow fast protests, and you have Germany where wounded uncle of Merckel is finishing her term. Those are the two twin towers of Europe that hold this thing together. So yes, the whole picture is falling apart to breaks. Brits are in unbe. Unbelievably controversial in kind of incompetence looking moment as they cannot as nation figure out what they wanna do it appears at this point. Let's just stop the pain take the Theresa May deal. It's not perfect. But they voted to get out if they really wanna get out. That's the best. They're going to get through Europe. Now, I'm reading from the times of London as we speak. It's where I begin because they're so head of us in the news cycle when I get to the studio. This is what I start with Boris Johnson last night. Join Jacob rees-mogg in warning of the growing risks than another defeat would mean Britain remaining in the EU Mr. rees-mogg said he now back MS maze deal subject to support from the DUP. The prime minister has been told however that she must promise at a meeting with Taurean piece today to quit before the second stage of the Brexit talks. That sounds to me like the lead campaign is getting realism pragmatic realism infused into their choice right now. Indeed. And factoring into all this, Hugh. If you've seen the recent polling it shows that a pretty solid, but if a club. Fundamentally predict maturity appears now to point to remain. And I think the those who wanna leave are concerned if this thing drags on much longer the imperative to do another referendum will rise. And I think the depart crowds are getting very concerned. So so add that to the pressure. That's on forest Johnson. And that we had a party to take the deal. Now put on your Carlisle group hat for second as a sort of investor Maximus and management. Guru is the UK going to be a great business partner for the United States going forward? Or is is your advice to try and find opportunities for your money to work in other parts of the globe post? Brexit post the may deal assuming the deal passes. Deal passes Britain won't be hungry for US is for all lot of obvious reasons. So there will be deals to be had the problem will be if you go into Britain, you're gonna you're gonna have more difficulty getting into the so as an investor you kind of have to head I think Europe is still figure if you will is underrated as a place for US investment. I think you're gonna see flow in that direction. But the bottom line is it's gonna be Asia that's going to benefit from all this everything we've talked about the gradual unraveling at the European project, if you will the idea of this one huge global common market is unraveling in Europe, and that's gonna create more opportunity in Asia. And I would watch particularly to India. I think this century is going to be more about the rise of India's and the rise of China. When all say, oh, interesting. We'll come back to that in future weeks. I I have to close though by talking about Israel with you because the secretary of state your friend, Mike Pompeo yesterday. Talking about the Golan Heights in the president's decision to recognize Israel's annexation of Golan and the massive tank battle in one thousand nine hundred seventy three and Nixon's intervention in the report, it was a great speech that Pompeo APEC, however, they're on the brink of war right now in deputy minister Orrin was on yesterday saying we don't need a war with Gaza's HAMAs right now, the real threat is in the north. That's a second attempt by Iran to get us. A look the wrong direction. What do you make of that situation? I think that's a pretty good analysis by the Israelis in limitless back up to the Golan for a second. Anybody who has walked the ground up? There is my army general peers would say would tell you that leaving aside the politics of this. It is militarily impossible for Israel to give up the Golan. It just exposes the entire flat, low utterly vulnerable tech and manufacturing center of Israel to say nothing of the entire population. So they're going to hold onto the Golan in terms of where they ought to be looking right now. And what is happening guys is a puritan. It's a tactical problem this strategic challenge without question is to the Newark, especially as you, and I have talked about is the Iranians consolidate this swath of territory that runs tape Ron to the shores of the Mediterranean, just north of Israel. Go line is going to be crowned zero in that strategic challenge for Israel on that note, Admiral, James Stavridis. Thank you as always for a great conversation following that stab reach a on Twitter and follow him here. He comes back and makes the world a little bit clearer for us every single week. And we appreciate when you can do that. Thank you Admiral time for me to tell you again about food for the poor as we head into the final three days of our food for the poor campaign. 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