China, United States, Japan discussed on Squawk Pod
Today's uncertainty may cause you to question your investment strategy but with the right perspective and investment solutions. We think it's possible to stay on track toward long-term goals with Janice Henderson. Abandon your dance. Not your financial goals. You're listening to squad from CNBC. Good morning everybody. Welcome back to Squawk box here on. Cnbc I'm becky quick. Along with Joe and and Mike Santoli our guest host this morning is Liz Young. She's director of Market Strategy Mellon Investment Management New overnight China confirming two hundred new cases of the virus and the outbreak is taking a toll on the economy. Their new survey data showed China's manufacturing activity slumped in February. The purchasing managers index came in at forty point three. That's the lowest readings since the survey was launched. Back in two thousand and four Japan meantime reporting five new cases overnight and controversial school. Closures began their today for most of the country. Creating child-care problems for millions of workers auto sales in Japan tumbled ten percent in February as the virus outbreak led to production disruptions and South Korea reported nearly five hundred new cases overnight bringing the total there to more than forty three hundred. That's pretty amazing. These just all this the ramp in China you see. There are Japan the article that in Japan people. The flu season is being minimized because people are washing hand so much and staying home from work that they're normal people are doing better because in that entire county how many. Let's do that all the time I started. I started started. Welcome and then you hear China. That's such a bizarre story where you said okay. Two hundred two hundred cases but the size of China in two hundred cases and yet you've got a piece of forty that's a disconnect and shows you. Here's what's doing. Not What China? Actually did they intentionally shutdown and tried to quarantine. The fear of fear of the corona value. Went out to work. Maybe I understand anybody. Test it to the number of new cases is not proportionate economic damage is being done and it's the same thing that can happen. Economic Shutdown is the type of thing that China did that by the way most of have been applauding them for taking these extreme measures because it meant that it didn't spread more rapidly for the amount of cases that you have a country like China to see the economic damage versus the actual number of cases. I mean they did order to come out of the workforce right. I mean they quarantine enough people. They don't all necessarily need to be infected. They're just not at work. They're not producing anything. And that's been the issue and then you pass through it kind of builds on itself you pass through a certain area and then those people can't go to work for a certain amount of time so it brings. I mean at some point. A third. Almost a third of the workforce out of we have this type of damping of economic activity with eighty thousand or ninety thousand total cases globally. Yeah what happens when we have if we have a million cases I then it won't be as proportional because we've already discounted it seems like we've already discounted by in case Canada. Lot of economic activity. Shut yes exactly and you just wonder if we could get a quick therapeutic that could deal with the symptoms with people that that get worse to be great then we may go back. Eunice tweeted earlier today. About how stem cell therapy supposedly worked at a patient who was very sick from this southern things go back after yard and the only thing that fear we might go back in in Hindsight. Say That at some point that we. I'm hoping I'm hoping and then the other then there's pockets scenario. Would you be worse okay? We are joined by a couple of gentlemen. That know what they're talking about. Thank you meg. Let's talk to your doctor. Scott Gottlieb former. Fda Commissioner and CVC contributor. He serves on both Pfizer's and Aluminum Boards and Dr Matt McCarthy An Infectious Disease Physician who is the author of superbugs the race. The stop an epidemic Thank you both for joining us. Just start off on a little bit. Different Tangent Gentlemen. In the I mean. When did we discover penicillin? It was like in the thirty s or so it wasn't I mean what we've done in the past ninety years in the whole history of human existence. It's amazing where we are right. Discovered in nineteen twenty seven points available in nineteen forty four. We've had a long and successful history of Diagnostics and therapeutics and we're better and better. We can see when we sequence to sing instantaneously. Almost we can do. It ought in an automated way. Why shouldn't we be hopeful that we can come up with a therapeutic quickly? Let me tell you the problem right now before I came here this morning. I was in the emergency room seeing patients. I still do not have a rapid diagnostic test available to well. That's easy to do. Is it not? Is it hard to manufacture? It is easy to for some countries. What happened in the United States is that the CDC created test Senate test out to fifty states and then said hold up? Don't use it. Let us fix it. How we hear that. It's coming very soon but I'm here to tell you right now. At one of the busiest hospitals in the country. I don't have it at my fingertips. I still have to call the Department of Health. I still have to make my case. Plead to test people. This is not good. We know that there are cases in the United States. There are going to be hundreds by middle of week. There's going to be thousands by next week and is a testing. What do you do people in the emergency room? If you can't test them well we call and we try to test. We isolate them. We have an outstanding team of infection. Control practitioners who know how to handle this. But they're hamstrung by the fact that we don't have a diagnostic test available. People getting sent home because I read reports that over the weekend. We're not sending people home. We're making sure they get what supportive care we can give but keep in mind we now have this in New York state right. The person who tested positive was only the thirty second test. We've done in this state. That is national scandal. They're testing ten thousand a day in some countries and we can't get this off the ground. I'm a practitioner on the firing line. And I don't have the tools to properly care for patients today. The challenges that providers can't take proper precautions if they can't talk about this for weeks. This is what we need to do. We need to have a vaccine strategy. I think a vaccine is a year or two away. I think we need to think about what we're going to have in the fall back. Stopped this when this. Hopefully this will start to dissipate in July and August. But it's going to probably come back in the fall and then what next and the only thing that could be available in the near term therapeutic antibodies prophylaxis or drugs. Vaccines Much lie isn't something existing in the HIV regimen. That might work on on a well. We have an HIV drug Kalija. That we're studying right now. It's in a clinical trial. That information is not going to be available for a while. The message today is we're hearing from this administration. That risk is low and that things are probably going to be okay. You don't need to change your lifestyle that's simply not true. There are going to be thousands of cases here. We have already moved from containment to mitigation. We are trying to lessen the severity. Here you're going to see widespread disruption to daily life. Do not believe the false. Reassurance does that mean in terms of what people should do on a daily basis. Look I think that I think we're GONNA have outbreaks here in the US. There's no question about that. I think in in parts of the country would past the point where we can contain this. We're going to have to look towards mitigation Washington State California. It doesn't need to become epidemic. We have a much more advanced healthcare system. We have better infection control procedures in hospitals. I think we have the capacity to do that. I agree we need to start taking more aggressive steps right now to make sure that this doesn't become China. Hit testing that how to China possibly be on the downside of the epidemic cow. Well and there's also something called the boomerang effect which we may be seeing in who right now. Which is that places. We think are clear are starting to have rates creep up. We may see things bounce back. But the key here is do not believe the false reassurance. I'm telling you the cases are about to surge and only then. Can we make informed decision that lower denominator on on the mortality? Absolutely so we're talking about mortality rate. I see numbers like one to two percent thrown around. I don't believe that the modeling we're using. We're using data out of Korea. We think that's the best thing that point. Two point. Four percent of that's twice as bad as a seasonal a very bad flu season. Keep in mind. Flu Kills Twenty five nine thousand Americans so worried that has been caused already in the economic effects are much more than twice the mortality rate of the flu. Where ten times more what do you. What do you make of the diamond for instance? Because I know that's not a typical population. But the case fatality rate. There's GONNA be above one percent probably when you know if you're an eight because it's an older population right. So if you're an eighty year old on a cruise ship. You're in trouble. I mean the case fatality rates over ten percent We're seeing ages one to nine exceedingly low right. There's a lot about this absolutely so widespread surveillance is going to start giving us information so that we can make these informed decisions about whether March madness needs to be cancelled. Are there different levels of panic around the country and the reason I'm asking is because I was in Detroit last week and this is a small example but I asked a room full of clients and investors are you worried about corona virus and they unanimously said. No and I said. Are you not worried? Because you think you're going to catch it in your still be okay or are you not worried. Because you don't think you're gonNA catch it and they said we're going to be. I think this is going for a while. This is going to be regionally. GonNa have regional outbreaks where you're going to have more focus on it in certain parts of the country Washington state. We're probably a couple of weeks away from some significant measures in Washington state to try to mitigate spread in northern California's. Well look a couple of weeks away. It's got an incubation period of potentially a couple of weeks so are we kind of just always going to be behind the eight ball on this where reacting to the news. Two weeks later. We have a lot of undiagnosed cases to his point right. Now there's probably you know low thousands of cases in this country that we now need to turn over the car. And so we're GONNA WE'RE GONNA have a surge cases before we start to catch up to the actual level of spread. You know it's a big country. Three hundred thirty million people so even if you have several thousand cases your risk of contracting it's still low but that could change very quickly. Japan is taking some pretty extreme measures like co closing schools that they're not diagnosing their cases there as aggressively as South Korea. That's where we're going to school closures here. Definitely you know. We're we're hearing that life's GonNa go about Just like normal. That's not true and to speak to the earlier question. I'll tell you I live in Westchester and when I'm walking around Westchester not really worried about corona virus. But when I get on the six train when I'm walking around Time Square when I'm in the emergency room every single day caring for patients. I am very worried joining today. Santo you've got is because I ride the subway because you're supposed to Scott it say how many. How many cases do you suspect you've seen if you had enough cases testing? How many cases would you have tested? We've seen one case in New York. I bet hundreds I bet there are thousands in the United States. And the longer we wait to get testing up and running the worst. This is going to be but I'm telling you as a practicing clinician. We're not there. I thought they were shipping tests to California in Bulk CAPAC- by the end of this week. So we have about one hundred public health. Labs will have a capacity to do one hundred tests day so it's a ten thousand tests a day by the end of this week. That still requires physicians like you to call the Public Health Department of State to order the test. That's cumbersome by the end of the week after that we should have maybe as much as another ten thousand tests capacity -Oday so we'll be at twenty.