Eagles, Jalen, Cowboys discussed on Bet The Board
Some of those data points to where you could kind of see the path here. And that's the whole thing. I mean, we talk all the time about low totals and the value of a number this large. You talked about muddying it up and I think it's the perfect way to kind of look at a game like this that what is the magic number for either Washington to achieve or the forty-niners to achieve if they're going to cover or if the commanders become the side. So an interesting game for a variety of reasons I think oftentimes people are laughed or left with a lasting visual of Washington struggling against the Giants 20 to 12. They know about how well the forty-niners are playing the narrative and all that can often create a little bit of value in the betting market. Well, Washington travels west two of their familiar foes within the division will do battle in big D and the murky picture here. Got a little bit clearer earlier this morning as news officially broke that Nick Siri said Jalen hurts will most likely be unavailable to play this weekend against the Dallas Cowboys, something the betting market told us Monday morning when that number went from one and a half to two and a half to three to four to 5 to 6 and topping out at 6 and a half. We've now settled in with the Dallas Cowboys a 6 point favorite total on the game 46 and a half. First time all year that the Philadelphia Eagles will actually be listed as an underdog. The third regular season meeting where both of these teams, the cowboys and eagles will enter with ten plus wins. The cowboys won the previous two games, which happened back in 1980 and 2009. What's at stake here, the eagles can clinch the NFC east and home field advantage through the NFC playoffs with a win. The eagles next win will mean there's been no repeat NFC east champion in 18 straight seasons since the eagles did it back in 2004 extending the longest run by any division since the 1970 NFL AFL merger. We know the cowboys despite losing last week against Jacksonville did clinch their playoff birth. And you talk about trying to replace a level of productivity in Jalen hurts, pain, I'm amazed how many people in the last 48 to 72 hours are talking about how it won't be that big a drop off, Gardner minshew has starting experience and is more than capable of taking over the eagles offense. It leads me to believe they're selling Jalen hurts short and some of his ongoing development, not just as a runner but a pastor this year knowing he's got such dynamic weapons and the likes of devonta Smith and AJ Brown that we're putting up Pro Bowl type numbers. And for the eagles, their offense will get at least a shot in the arm here. We'll see exactly how he's integrated back into the fold with Dallas Goddard being upgraded to the active roster. Not a fan of the stash. I mean, he's good, but to say he's Jalen hurts in the offense won't experience a drop off his downright nonsense in my opinion. We managed to talk about this in passing and get the podcast out for consumption on Monday hours before the news actually broke and we kind of mentioned Gardner minshew being one of the best backup quarterbacks in this league and that's why we talk about value all the time and the drop off from hertz to minshew not nearly as large as mahomes to henny. This is a horrific spot for the eagles. There are almost plain for nada here. Dallas is playing for virtually everything. And this is the eagles third straight road game late in the season. Some negative trends against that. However, with minshew, started two games last season. I think we backed him in one was fantastic on the road against the jets, did play week 18 against this very cowboys defense led by Dan Quinn. You kind of might want to use that data point and on the surface you might be okay, but I wouldn't do that. And I understand that that matchup didn't go very well. You had a 51 QBR. He finished the week quarterback 26 out of 33 and EPA plus completion percentage over expectation. But I think you do have to put mint shoes performance against the cowboys last season in the right context. And the right context for me is like understanding the eagles were down four starting offensive linemen. Three of the eagles top four weapons. This season didn't play or weren't on the roster. And last season's week 18 matchup with AJ Brown and miles Sanders in Dallas Goddard all not on the field for that. And then you kind of compound that with what's unfolding here with this cowboys defense. Micah Parsons not practicing it this week because he's dealing with an illness, I would assume he's going to be fine come Saturday. Doran's Armstrong, who is second on the team and Sachs, was on the injury report last week, battled through it and played in the Jaguars game and then left with that same injury in that game. And he's been limited all week. So let's see how that unfolds. And Leighton Vander esh well, he's certainly been, I would say had a disappointing career relative to where he was drafted. Still a starter in your front 7, and he's down with a neck injury, hasn't practiced jet and from the cowboys ideal defense, the one that they would want to put out there if they could handpick their guys. There are 7 starters that are either out or have a questionable designation this week. And I think what you're seeing and this was one of the reasons we bet Jacksonville last week over the last month, since week 12 basically, this vaunted cowboys defense, 19th, and overall schedule just efficiency. The injuries in the secondary have been exposed by quarterbacks like Daniel Jones and Matt Ryan, who was just benched for the second time in the same season. And Davis mills, who was also benched this season. Trevor Lawrence, obviously. Receivers like Chris Moore and Alec pierce and J Jones are just going ham out there against this team.