Berkshire, FED, Federal Government discussed on Invested: The Rule #1 Podcast
Huge and that totally and I think that they are on and and the reason they're doing that is because the federal government thinks they're critical industry. Nobody thinks your critical industry. Hate to tell ya but nobody's coming to your rescue except you. You better start rescuing yourself ahead of when you need it. The worst thing about banks. They will only lend you money when you donate it. So if you don't need right now go get a pile of it if you need it right now. I'm sorry but you probably not gonna be able to get it too late. So we're the wise. Follow the the examples of the best CEOS in America who are in trouble right now and they are all loading their balance sheet with debt as fast as they can get it as much as they can get it so he should do the same thing I think I mean. That's just an opinion. I'm just saying it's just an opinion. Just an applied do not see why that is any less ethical than what Boeing's doing so let's get back to me buffet and Berkshire Hathaway. I won that one. Tonight you're taught me. What did you think about Greg? Evil sitting next above it and making comments well. I think that's an obvious indication of WHO's GonNa take over of Warren. Get sick this year dies. I think absolutely he's pointing to Greg. Able I don't I don't and Greg is younger than than a Jane. And that's probably why as she'd isn't up there Vowed genius in buffets been raving about him for years. But you gotta you gotTa get a new guy in there. You Probably WanNa get a guy who's not seventy you know it's like it's like Charlie Munger. Charlie Mongers Board Meeting Daily Journal. Like we've just brought in a new director who's seventy five which dropped the average age of the board by ten years or something? That was funny. It was really funny so I think that's a big part of you've got to to really superstars there and I think he picked the one. I mean it's not a final pick but I think that's an indication who's going to be running Berkshire obviously. It's a very strong indication of confidence. Yeah A to that question of who runs yeah. I don't know but I found that he was he was all right like I didn't really feel like he added that much he didn't. He definitely lacks the sort of interesting talk that the buffet gives and the Banter in the stories. And the you know ways of explaining things that make profits so interesting and and obviously hardly anybody is like buffet. He's one of a kind but it was very much like if this is the future. I don't know how much how much longer people are. GonNa get excited about it. But who knows it's an interesting question about Berkshire itself I mean. Buffet was pretty clear that At in previous to the meeting that prior to the meeting that he wouldn't think berkshires massively undervalued. Right now He basically that you were to sell off Berkshire in pieces and pay the taxes And the liabilities. Pay All that off By the time you cleared all the tax bill Which would be enormous. You would have a break even more or less and that might have been a little sobering for Berkshire investors because the stock went down ten percent. This already well not just that he also answering the question about why they didn't buy stock back in March. It wasn't just that they want to conserve money. Although I think personally I think that's the main reason but and why would you spend money buying Berkshire stock unless he had nothing else to do? But also because he said the intrinsic value of Berkshire went down last month burst of all he lost was it. Six billion on the airline investment and then Many of their businesses have been really adversely affected by the Down he said Berkshires intrinsic value has changed and so he didn't really think that actually the price change showed a massive discount the way it would have seemed and I thought that was really interesting so I don't. I wasn't real surprised by that the fact that he didn't buy a lot of Berkshire buying a little. I mean a little few billion dollars worth of March or April now but over the last year. Oh yeah when they bought exactly but they didn't buy a lot and so to me. It's been he's been saying right along more. I think what I'm hearing from buffet as more. We're going to see a time when we can by Berkshire I really cheap. Yeah hit it. I think it's that it's that plus we would rather buy some massive awesome business at eight seventy five percent discount because we're the only ones who can cause we're the only ones with a hundred billion dollars to spare and still leave forty billion on the balance sheet to cover all of our expenses and random obligations that come up so. I think that's what he's hoping for and he doesn't WanNa Penny Ante little purchases here and they're not these being for that he doesn't want the US to crash. But I think he he sees it as a possibility and I think we should too. I do too. I think I mean. I think we're GONNA wrap up here but my prescription for me is going to be sit tight be patient. Charlie said we make money when we wait. That's what I'm planning on doing. We've certainly picked up a couple of companies without. We're we're pretty nicely priced in. And they've gone down from where we bought them and we WANNA buy more But we're sitting in a lot in cash and I think that that's I'm very very comfortable without right. Now that this market will look a lot worse. I think there's a very good chance. This market will look a lot worse in a year that it looks right now and we'll see we'll see if that's true. Yeah we'll see. He didn't answer becky too quick. Didn't ask my question which I was bummed about my question. Was My question was considering that we're in a recession. So many small and medium businesses are going bankrupt and not gonNA come back. People are losing their jobs. Unemployment is at a massive high. Do you think that Wall Street is completely divorced from the plate of Main Street? Ooh That's very sophisticated question. What do you think the answer is? I think it is divorced and I think we're going to look back and go these. What's the vote was that occupy Wall Street thing? We're going to look back and go these like fat cat. Rich people were sending stocks way up with no justification except for a few of them are doing well legitimately have good earnings but the rest of them don't and yet for some reason. Wall Street has suddenly gone. Long-term mysteriously and companies with no earnings going but in a year. They'll be fine doesn't me to any sense at the same time. People are losing their jobs and it's not just jobs it's small and medium businesses are many of them are not gonna come back and they weren't able to get the loans from the government because the US government screwed up the process and that's a whole other story but it's really discouraging and I just don't see these these two. I don't know it's like these two opposing forces but they're not really opposing the kind of Har- and they just don't make sense together. I really wanted to hear from him about that. Like this market is is almost back at its high like why considering all the data why nobody asked him that I can tell you why why and I think I'm very likely to be right. And that is that the market meaning. The vast majority of our money in the market is run by professional fund managers who have learned over the last decade that you should never fight the Fed. It's a it's a fact of life and it's a. It's like a headline. Don't fight the Fed and anybody that's fought the Fed meeting if the Fed reserve raising interest rates. You think the market is gonNA go up and you buy stocks and it goes down like a brick because you fought. The Fed raise interest rates market. Goes DOWN THEY DROP? Interest rates market. Goes up these guys have learned that over and over and over and over again and they're fundamentally traders even though the so called long-term investors dot hold socks more than about three months and they're judged on their three-month performer sector judged on a one month performance. A years forever. You know years like you know light years away so you. You may not have a job in a year. You'd better perform now. And so they can't sit there and wait while their peer group jumps in as the Federal Reserve cuts rates to zero and promises with the federal government to put in six trillion dollars. They can't wait if they wait. They're gonNA look so stupid in three weeks which they did anybody. That waited look like an idiot. The market jumped back boom. And so guess what they. They've made it more volatile there jumping in just out of pure momentum guessing nothing to do with mainstream nothing to do with what's going to happen a year absolutely blind to it out of necessity to protect their jobs. That's why it went Jack and backup all right there right again. Do Not Take Silence. Ask Agreement. Well proportioned give my love the Nuno and stay healthy and you all stay healthy out there to you guys and we'll be talking to you next week. Thanks guys next week. We're going to have an interview With Dan Heath great book called upstream. So check that out. And then we'll be back talking about companies because we've promised you guys good companies that we like and that's what's coming could good depression companies to get onto that list to go. Thanks everybody hi guys. 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