Mets, Reds, National League East discussed on Sports Gambling Radio - By BangTheBook
Best one to three punching baseball with brennan corbin burns and friday peralta. You've got josh devin williams in the bullpen. But this is a team. That's heavily reliant. On those five guys if any of them get hurt. That's a big problem for milwaukee. So i'm not entirely sure what i'm going to do with this. With my brewers fifty. Five to one ticket i could play the reds at fifty five to one i could just take the reds to win the central division. Obviously if you take one of these teams from a world series standpoint pretty much instant auto hedge now. The brewers do have the pitching to beat anybody. They do. Have that the reds probably. Don't they'd have to out hit somebody but again. If you're sitting there were fifty five. One going into the world series. That's a pretty good price point. Be at so trying to decide. What if anything. I want to do to hedge. This brewers ticket because these two teams play each other coming on the all star break and the reds are at home in that series. I think i may have to do something with it. And i'm not exactly sure what that is as of yet. But i still have a little bit of time to decide. Couple of leans here as well for a second half futures ticket. The mets the missed. The playoffs is plus two sixty five. Now you third order. Win percentage for the national league east. The mets are actually the last place team through a win percentage and alternate standings metric. That looks at you know. A lot of expected run differential and all of that but also factors and strength of schedule the nationals. Actually the top team in the national league east by third owner win percentage by base runs. They should be three games better than they are. So kind of a correlation here of nationals plus twelve hundred to win the east and mets to miss the playoffs and plus two sixty five. If one of those things happens. I think the other thing happens. So the mets missed the playoffs. I do think that it's the nationals. Now that would be in the best position to win that division with the braves not having ronald kunia junior. So there's some correlation here it's not a full on parlay or anything like that. But i do think that there is some correlation than if you think the mets missed the playoffs. The nationals would be the team that should pick up the pace. They're so nationals. At twelve to one to win the east and mets to miss the playoffs plus to sixty five a couple of things. I'm looking at here again. Shop around for the best prices on all of those things but those are a couple of the options that i have here before. Play begins in the second half. Let's take a look at some second half adjusted win. Totals and i do feel stronger about these than i do. Dabbling in the futures market at this point in time but i did want to throw it a lot of different possibilities for you here today on the show the secondhand adjusted win total numbers. I've seen these at draft kings. I'm not sure how many other sports books do have them posted. I'm sure there are some in the global markets for those that don't have access to the us books but here are a few that i'm looking at for a variety of different reasons and the first one is the seattle mariners eighty and a half. Now i do believe. I saw the market eighty two and a half on this one eighty three and a half even a win. These i open and the market has this down. I know it was at least eighty. Two and a half could have been higher than that. The market has bet. This went down. And you can understand why. I've talked a lot about this mariners team. I talked about him a lot on. Monday's show their plus eight in factory and win. Lost their plus seven in base runs their plus. I think nine eight or nine in third order win percentage. This team has gotten very lucky. Throughout the course of the season the mariners are forty eight and forty three maybe minus fifty run differential on the season. They are sixth in weighted on base average of men in swerve position but thirtieth in weighted on base average with the bases empty so they are a big cluster team. That should regress to the mean. They're nineteen and eight in one run games. That should regress to the mean. Its aunt their bullpen. Is that good or anything like that. So mariners under eighty and a half and this is a tricky one because they are forty eight and forty three. But i think this is a team that really does fall off in a pretty significant way here in the second half. I know. Julio rodriguez is coming. I know jared kalinic is up already. I know. logan gilbert is up already but this is a team. That shouldn't be as good as it is a lot of stats pointing towards negative progression for seattle. So i'm looking at the under eighty and a half with their season they're adjusted. Excuse me season win total next. Here's atlanta braves under eighty two and a half and this one isn't really statistical or anything like that. This is more about personnel. Where router kunia junior out for the rest of the year with that tornadoes. C. freddie freeman charlie. Morton drew smiley. Chris martin all impending free agents. Now i don't know necessarily a freeman gets moved but smiley condole if somebody wants to take on the five million or so. He's still owed. Charlie morton. Could i didn't charlie morton definitely goes. I think some contender very much. Want charlie morton. Maybe a reunion with the tampa bay. Rays could be an order. I think that's a possibility. Those two teams actually play each other coming out the all star break by the way chris martin a good bullpen peace. There will definitely be a team that wants to add him. I didn't atlanta's best interest to reshuffle the deck. A little bit for twenty twenty to try to move these. Two starting pitchers find out. What you've got in all of your minor league starters. Mike sirocco has already been shut down. marcelo zun still out with all of his legal issues. I think the braves are just. They're not in a particularly good spot here and they've been relatively healthy throughout the first half of the season and still haven't played particularly well now. Their best player is out. Maybe their second or third best starter had a setback. I under team here for the second half. They've been a good second half team. So maybe that's kinda keeping this number a little bit high. But i think that the braves will run into some difficulties here and also seeing that correlation if the mets missed the playoffs nationals to win the east i do the nationals over seventy eight and a half the way it looks right now they may only play five teams with a winning record going into the all star break here so they have a very light schedule in the second half base runs has them with positive run differential third or win percentage has them in i. They've got twelve left with miami they play colorado for six games. They're gonna play the pirates. They play this week division. So nationals over seventy eight and a half kind of a correlation there with braves under eighty two and a half. And as i said hello yet nationals. Twelve one to win the national league. Easter.