Miami, Cleveland, Browns discussed on The Bill Simmons Podcast
At that point, they're four and four. They blew the Atlanta game. The blue the Chargers game. They really could be 6 and three. You know, in the Pats like beat the shit out of them and then people were kind of off on Cleveland, but they're getting three and a half against Miami. I like the hook. I think they could win the game outright. And I like them. Should I be more scared of this Miami team? I'm not sure. I don't think scared is necessarily it because I think Cleveland can go punch for punch in terms of point score, right? I'm on the over in this game. I like Cleveland's ability to move the ball, both on the ground. Miami's got a pretty good run defense, right? 9th by EPA per play allowed in the running game. But Cleveland just tends to work whenever. You know what I'm saying? This Cleveland running game tends to be either. We have a really good game or a good game. And we don't really get much lower than that. So I feel good about the running game, passing game wise, I feel great. Miami plays a ton of man coverage. They're banged up in the secondary. They've been playing Eric Rowe because they had a Brandon Jones go down. They're playing kahua because they've had injuries department. Byron Jones has gone down Brandon Jones has gone down. It's a banged up secondary and they still insist on playing man. Jacoby resets him pretty good against man coverage this year. He's good at taking his matchups, bushes the ball downfield. So I think you see a lot of points. What worries me if we're fading Miami is that the browns are the worst run defense in the league. I don't know if it's Raheem mostert. I don't know if it's Jeff Wilson. I just know that some back in this Miami backfield is gonna have the opportunity to rip off explosives in a big way. This Miami, this Cleveland defensive front is so easy to move off the ball. And while the Miami offensive line certainly I wouldn't go and be like, they're super great. They're very trustworthy. I love them. They've been getting better weekend and week out, and the running game has improved as this offense has been installed. I'm at a point where it's hard for me to fully trust a Cleveland team to carry a win. For adjust them to kind of carry a spread because they have such a clear weakness. And mcdaniel used to be the running game coordinator for the niners. He then knows how to pick on this. So I like totals in this game. I like points in this game more than I like any particular side. I can see this being like a final possession sort of thing. Like the bears were, right? They were four point dogs, and they were just going three, 7, three, 7, three, 7. I was back and forth on that line. I could see the same sort of thing on this one. What if I offered you a same game parlay? I love them. If the brands win, do we think the game goes over? Do you think those two things have to happen together? I think the game just goes over period. So yeah, that doesn't bother me too much. Okay. Well, right now, browns and the over is plus three 39 browns to win the game outright with the three 39. It's over it says 49 and a half now. Oh wow, yeah, so it's been moving for the last couple of days. And then you put in the chub anytime touchdown, which would probably push that to about 6 to one. And I think you're good to go. Yeah, I mean, I don't mind that at all. It sounds eerily similar to the same sort of stuff that I usually build on Saturday night and Sunday morning. You get a browns running back touchdown into a browns team total over. And most days of the week, you're cooking with gas there. It just depends on what your final legs are. As you know, I like this Miami team a lot. I like this one. I'm passing a sack a lot. So the browns might line again, it's just to me, it ends up being like a who scores class sort of thing. And that's a freaks me out. But for the odds, I think you're getting good value. All right, I might put them in underdog parlay. Dallas, in Green Bay, we can do this one quickly. So the case of, you know, the home bigger home dogs this year have been really dangerous to go against. And we've seen a lot of FU performances by the big home dogs. On the flip side, Dallas is just way better than Green Bay Gary's got scratch today. All their receivers are hurt. Rogers is a mess. What's the Aaron Jones situation? I have not seen an up down Aaron Jones as of Thursday. I know that we have no jobs and we have no stokes. I know we have no rashawn Gary. I don't expect David bakhtiari for the game. I haven't seen it. I'm looking Aaron Jones right now. Awesome defense. And here's the other thing. And this is why I really want to put the Dallas money line with something. You know, these Lambo games, they're like religious experiences. You go and there's 80,000 packer fans and it's freaking awesome and they all love the team. I think there's gonna be some Dallas fans at this game. You know, there's gonna be people. There's gonna be people that sold their tickets, they don't wanna go, the packers have lost 5 in a row, maybe like, oh, I can pay for my, I feel like there's gonna be Dallas fans, and I think there's gonna be a weird vibe. I think it's gonna be a depressing game. And I think Dallas's defense is, I just think Green Bay's offense is bad. And Dallas's defense against this offense, I don't care where they're playing. So the money line to be is a lights out opportunity here. And normally I'd be like, no, Rogers, home dog, can't count them out, but I think that's actually stupid. Right, and I also, I would, I like that mentality in the event that I think Aaron Rodgers really wants to and cares about winning football games. You know what I'm saying? When I watched that packers film, 7 watching weekend week out at this point just because it's kind of like, you know, you watch it for the cringe worth in us of your kind of watching it through your fingers. He's just lazy, it's just not in tune with the offense. He doesn't care what he's reading. He gives on RPOs that he should keep, he keeps on RPOs, he should give. The Allen lazard interception, right? He was thrown into the end zone. He sidearm flicks it, and it goes off a guy's helmet and then he throws a hissy pit. You know what to do? Throw it over the top. You've been a lead for 13 years. So I don't see an engaged player. And so like, oh, let's get up for this cowboys game. It went for the home crowd. If he does, sure, but I'd be surprised. Jones, limited Wednesday and then limited again on Thursday. So so far, kath reps. So I think he's probably going to see him play. I might be a little bit more of a two headed backfield there with Dylan. But this Dallas defense against so it's a banged up offensive line has been underperforming offensive line.