Elliott Walden, Horsfield, Dr Jeff discussed on TDN Podcast
We talked about before street cents and city of light on some of their three seventeen. Thirty eight is a flatter phillies. Full sister to to other type flannel phillies and the two year old. Dr jeff broke his main. I doubt saratoga. A couple of weeks ago was favored. The saratova's special hitch seventeen. Eighty four is a justify. Cole of the great three winning multiple greatest states placed as my thing The two year old king carlin was second eleven at kentucky downs in his first. Start this past weekend from that family. In eighteen sixty six is a volt doro coal out of a half sister talk. Move to me where i remember. It was very impressive. Rising stars by violence respond medallion door so similar family there so we know the cross works there and for photos walking videos cadillac pages in x ray reports. You can go to. Why would furred dot com. So we got the the reporter. Mayors brad from the jockey club last week on. This is in the fall. Numbers projected grab subjective volk routes for twenty twenty two mirrors brad this year as eighteen thousand seven hundred which is another decline the client of five hundred Than the twenty twenty one full crabgrass. Two point six percents. This is the six straight year of decline in the lowest figure since nineteen sixty five on the whole crop was eighteen thousand eight hundred forty six high water mark which seems like jillian years ago in nineteen eighty. Six was fifty one thousand two hundred ninety six. Obviously were never ever going to approach those numbers again but this is obviously a concerning trend for the industry. I think the two the two trends to file. Oh if you want to know about the health of racing small crop and handle handle at least. I think has steadied a bit. You know it was going down for a long time and now it's at le- steadied at around ten billion dollars giver tate's You would obviously like to see that. Grow lisa's not declining. The way it was in the in the past twenty years with all crap continues to go down. This is something that is obviously going to trickle down to the rest of racing smaller field sizes which leads the smaller hand. All you're going to have fewer and fewer owners and end. I think that's hurt. Hurt the structure. Eventually you know. There's some quotes in the story from elliott walden about how the structure will will in the hundred thousand dollar made special ways that are all over. The place will get this trend to go in the other direction. I don't know about all that this seems kind of like a universal thing and it's just going go down and it's just a matter of how much But i wonder if bill hasn't thoughts. Yeah joe lhota thoughts on this. I mean eighteen thousand seven hundred. You're looking at the lowest woke up since nineteen sixty and i say the same thing this year that said any of the ten prior years on paper makes no sense. I mean we just talked about horses. Running for a hundred and thirty. Five thousand dollars maiden races and allowance races at kentucky downs. Her sis- have never been bigger. And if you take purses now versus twenty years ago i mean. They've gone up. they've just exploded. Thanks largely due to game which is where all the downs. Come from so simple economics here. Don't make any sense when the amount of money that is available to horses goes up. You should have more horses instead you get less and less all the time and you know it's interesting elliott walden said but you know maybe these higher purses will start to crack more owners which attract more demand for reading it. That would be the case. Why why hasn't that happened in prior years when purses keep going up right now. I don't have the answer to this. I don't know what's going on the only thing i can think of is. It's i'm sure it's not the top geyser getting squeezed out the top readers. It would seem to be in. It's like talk all about the middle market whether it's the yearling sales whatnot and a twenty five hundred dollars in maryland or something probably really is hard to make go or something like that so i think that's where it's coming from the one. The other thing too is the way racing has justice. I'm not sure it can't. We need less racing. Because if you don't duck less racing those six horsfield become five horsfield's and then all of a sudden the handle keeps going down in versus might go down if the handle goes down and that's one of the problems. This has to racing and one of the reasons why you know it's again the damned if you do damned if you felt of the slot machines reason why there's too much racine is there's twenty racetracks out there. That would be closed if they weren't excuses for having slot or now so let's let's hope though that it levels off at this number. This is sustainable. But get down to fourteen thousand in in seven eight years from now. Something like that is really really scary. Yeah it's That's that is the the elephant in the room is that there's too much racing or vulgar Yeah there's twenty race tracks to But to your point that you know these it was. It was a great story that soon wrote about a lot of great quotes in there. The only thing is i think most of the courts people like bill says who are at the top end of the game. Who aren't really gonna feel the swedes when it comes to declining full craps. They're they're they're mostly guys who you know. Their their salaries are all booked. And you know. They breed andrea mayor as a matter. What every single year. It's the smaller navies our state readers. That are gonna feel the effects of this with with really no business. There was an interesting quote in the story as well From chauncey morris about the lack of export and how other countries i think especially in the far east have become more reliant on their own reading programs res- opposed to american bright orces that they would have been exporting ten twenty years ago so i think that's that's an interesting point as well. This is no longer. I don't think the breeding capital of the world. I think every country that is as as a sustainable racing product has their own breeding product for a program that they can rely on But yeah you know it. Just it eventually gonna trickle down and we already have a problem with fields is this is. This is a blinking red alarm signal. The field sizes are barely over seven. Horses parades in some in some cases the monthly figures there below seven parade which is completely unsustainable and this is not loans to help that You know i just. I wonder if racing really ever addresses these problems in a systemic way. And you know not having that centralised body to do so is a real handicap. And i don't i don't. I'm not an expert on how to rejuvenate full crap like that's that's now my departments way above my pay grade but just i see some of the quotes. That are just kind of you know. Wow this is no big deal. You can't read too much into this. It's not necessarily about this. Year is false Five hundred horses. It's about the trend and the decline handle was going down by this much every year. You would obviously be very very concerned about it. But it's it's it's something that i guess. I know easy fix but it's definitely something to monitor and it's something that's going. It's kind of like a lagging indicator. You know kind of like the. It's we call it. We had cases than hospitalization than the lagging indicator. I think this is one of those things. Where couple years from now when these ordinaries folder on the track. You know you're going to have five feels five and a half six fields as an average and be like well. Why the hell is this happening. Well not enough holes too much racing too many racetracks and i think the the thing is a little bit illusory that now for now and we have the dealings subsidies and we have these teeth. Meet sicker really up or assist overall like that's not going to be the trend to full crop. It's used to go down tedium Brought to you by legacy blood. Stop using that. Fifty years combined experience in the worst business could benefit your program. Give time you're wendy a call. They personally advised on each horse as if they were their own. Legacy certainly gonna be be busy over the next week with a huge roster dealings going through the september sale have ten going through the rain today is about to begin including mendelssohn culture out of a stakes winner and city of call a grade to producers. Best of luck to tommy. Wendy on those horses. We'll be back with another seven-year lanes on saturday. The books three opener two more members of the first crop of mendelson who expects the sell very well less colts by by empire maker. More than ready at arrogate you can check out their group going to book three at barn nine keeneland. If you're on the grounds we'll be right back.