Brian, Steve, Samuel Scarpino discussed on 90.3 KAZU Programming
All right. So one other thing as I was talking about right at the end there with Brian and Neil. Oh, one other thing that pal Said that we wanted to dig into, he said. In essence, every new wave of the virus has had less and less of an economic impact. And while it certainly does hope that's true with this new wave one is also obliged in this business to reported out marketplaces agreement. Assure Has the big picture look at a recovery. Perhaps we don't know may be at risk. We can't understand the economy without understanding the virus, and this variant is a hard one to figure out. But here are some things we're learning. First. It's far more contagious than the original second, you can get it and spread it even if you're vaccinated, but It is really unlikely to cause serious illness for vaccinated people. I think the real concern is Unvaccinated ones. Milena is merely. Eva is head of life sciences research at my HS market. It's so emerging evidence still, but it all seems to be pointing in the direction of Potentially psychic highest severity of disease in people who are unvaccinated. So there are two ways this could slow the economy, governments could restrict consumers again or consumers could restrict themselves God. Lebanon is an economist with the conference board. People in general will be a little more hesitant to to go out and about and spend particularly older people, he says, who spend disproportionately uncertain industries. Think cruises, for example. Some local governments have introduced mask mandates. But so far, not much more than that. Michelle Meyer is head of U. S economics at Bank of America. It really think of as more as a speed bump than a permanent destruction of of growth. Largely because a decent number of people are fully vaccinated around 56% of those aged 12 and up. Samuel Scarpino directs pathogen surveillance at the Rockefeller Foundation, He says We're still learning about Delta, but we do know one thing for sure. The vaccines are still highly effective at preventing severe disease and death, even against the delta variant, so the vaccines are as important for the economy as they are for people's health in New York. I'm sorry, Ben ashore for marketplace Alright if that was the economic and epidemiological macro, there is a micro version of the Delta variant story to do as well and a lot of places. Workers have been trickling back into their offices since the beginning of the summer, a handful of hybrid employees at a time In New York, For instance, the occupancy rate for commercial office space in the second quarter was double what it was in Q one. Downtowns are actually starting to feel a little bit like downtown's again and And then Delta came along and Google and lived indeed an apple or just some of the companies that have pushed back there. Back to the office plans. Twitter reopened for two weeks and then shut down again. Here's the catch. All of those companies and thousands of other companies making similar decisions all across the country are surrounded by businesses that depend on people actually coming to work MARKETPLACE Matt Levin has that one. Real estate lawyer, Steve McDonald has been in the flood building near downtown San Francisco for 30 years. He loves his suite of offices there. I'm attached to the place because I designed it. And, you know, I got the fancy tapestries and fireplaces and stuff like that. Which is why, at a meeting yesterday his law partners approached him very delicate way and they were kind of sensitively asking me well, Steve, how do you feel about giving up the whole place? When we talked to McDonald A few months ago, he was still trying to sublet his extra office space. Now he's okay, giving it up and the 23,000 month in rent that's gotten You know, much less likely that we would return to 2019 normalcy. Laurie Albert is worried about that, too. She covers the New York market for commercial real estate company Cushman and Wakefield. You know, I hope that it doesn't go back to what it was a year ago because you know it was. Things were progressing and momentum was building and hopefully that will continue to be the the theme. Jay Howell's has gotten pretty used to revolving office reopening dates. They manage coffee cultures just a block from Twitter San Francisco headquarters. The company may expand its food menu to lure more local residents. But how says those tweeps? Have the money to spend on their daily cup of coffee and pastry, so our business will do a lot better with that help. In the meantime, house doesn't have to compete with the free gourmet.