Cnbc, United States, President Trump discussed on Squawk Pod
Squawk pod. The Corona virus is shaking the world. The president is planning a stimulus and the markets are all over the place. We were sitting at all time highs on February nineteenth. We've come down nineteen trading days the Saudi Russian split CNBC Contributor Halima craft on. What's at stake in an all out oil price war there? We're getting to that type of situation where the Russians are essentially saying. We're going to target sale. We want Shelter Rollover I. This could be extended downturn in twenty twenty thirty seven years of market drama experience Ariel investments chairman John Rogers. We're there eighty-seven buying bargains during that crisis. We were there in two thousand eight early. Two thousand nine buying bargains. We think this is the opportunity to buy those stories. Plus what's a hoped-for recovery without some alphabet soup? Is this a you? Recovery is at a lower case fee or an upper case fate. I'm CNBC producer. Katie Kramer. It's Tuesday march tenth. Twenty twenty squad. Pod Begins Right now becky by in three two one good morning everybody. Welcome to Squawk box here on. Cnbc we're live from the Nasdaq market site in Times Square. I'm becky quick along with Joe. Kernan and Andrew Ross Sorkin. Our Guest House is Joe. Terranova from verdicts investment partners. He's also a CNBC contributor. And it's great to see you here. This morning Becky I step on the pod market turmoil again today Tuesday. Us stock markets are pointing to something a rebound after a two thousand point drop Monday. The steepest single-day declines the two thousand eight financial crisis and historic decimation of oil prices. The Dow S and P and Nasdaq each fell more than seven percent. Monday and the speed of the decline kicked in circuit breakers a literal halt to the markets just as the trading again. Here's what that sounded like on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange live on. Cnbc up there you see See the cessation in Texas circuit breaker whom the bell tolls trigger. That was the first time since. Nineteen ninety-seven that circuit breakers kicked in an effort to slow down some of the panicked selling the garden variety corrections twelve and we got a pandemic. What what's what's a decent We're about maybe towards got an additional eighteen or nineteen percent yesterday. Ah Eighteen or nineteen you once again. If it goes from Europe a thousand a day you will once again be the call of the bottom you will be. I'll be right there and I wouldn't be surprised but it's just consensus. It's just it's just a feeling that everyone has at the same time that you express that's all it is and that many times. That is a contrarian indicator but I don't know what do you more to go or well. I understand the focus on the equities market. It's right Connotes going to default Treasury Yields Treasury yields they're zero yields have been the leading indicators where equities are going. I think yesterday we got four. We got down to thirty one points yesterday. Okay we are now back to seventy two basis points which is exactly where we were on Friday so that is a very indicator and treasury yields have been leading the equities market and all risk assets since the middle of January if you go back to January fourteenth January thirty first while the equities market wasn't concerned about the corona virus and potential spreads the United States. What was telegraphed at that? Point Treasury yields that were melting. Lower financials at that point topped out. I think the first place that you have to identify if you're going to see stability and I like what I saw yesterday from yields. It's the velocity of these moves. That's been so shocking to kind of watch all time highs on February nineteenth. We've come down. Nineteen trading days twelve trading day. So there's been five instances on Becky's point in terms of velocity where you've experienced during the course of one week a decline of greater than ten percent. Obviously the largest one was. You were down eighteen percent from October. Sixth the Vo Eight to October Tenth of Oh Eight. The other instances obviously or eighty seven two thousand and two thousand one. You lost eleven percent in the last week of February so the question becomes everyone believes in Aviv recovery. And if you look back. At all these instances all these instances there is a recovery. You have to identify you have to identify is it. Is it a lower case fee or an upper case fate? And that's the question so I I saw some nuts yesterday at least in some industries where people are asking. Is this a you recovery for these particular industries where there's a big fear factor so the u? Recovery really only happened after two thousand two thousand one because you had the DOT com bubble burst cruise ships again anytime soon but you had the DOT com bubble burst. Then you have the experience of nine eleven and then you had that you recovery. That's multi years to recover eighty-seven it took two years to recover and an OA. It took five years to recover the experience. I think most people are trying to identify with right now. Is December of two thousand eighteen? That's okay five months to recover so markets are moving much faster. I think we're getting acclimated to a different type of marketplace. And let's understand this biological in nature but let me ask you. We've never experienced. Ask You this the question that we yesterday that I still don't know the answer to which is what do you think? The markets think in terms of duration and extent scale of the problem here in terms not necessarily of the health scare unto itself which is real but the fear factor and how many people are not going to either be going to work. You're going to restaurants getting on the plane and you know markets discount. Things that you're saying here is what we've been talking about for three weeks winning but we haven't but I would argue that up until the past week. There was a view that somehow it was not gonNA come here in some meaningful way. We'll see an escalation in the number of cases that are reported here in the United States where I see an escalation on desensitized to that but I think for the investor at home. There's an interesting perspective here of how you have to treat this because it is happening so fast you have to have the Warren Buffett mentality and treat all of this as a passive investment. Let me explain what I mean by that. If you're invested in private equity right now are you seeing? Is it visible to you? What's going on in your investments? It's not if I said to you Andrew. Your House is going to decline ten percent over the next week and then in the following three months could go down another ten percent. And you're GONNA say Joel. I'm going to sell my house so I think the investor at home has to understand this intrigue it passively and I think we're becoming more financially literate that we're getting to that place. The markets get emotional and we emotional. What's our total number of cases? Everybody that walks by me. I think Scott now I mean I want I don't want anyone coming via there's five hundred out of opted all of my freakish sort of Dan's washing and pure rally. Have you seen video of toilet paper? What's what's the toilet paper. Things run out of other things that make do with food waters. Some you know toilet paper. That's the because there were shortages in Japan because we watched it play out. In case instance. All right I'll figure something out. President trump now says he's going to be meeting with Senate and House Republicans today. The ones that aren't self porn TND to discuss a possible tax relief. Measure in response to the corona virus. We're seeing the Senate is going to be meeting with house. Republicans Mitch McConnell Everybody and discussing possible payroll tax cut or relief substantial relief very substantial relief. That's a big. That's a big number We're also going to be talking about hourly wage earners getting Help so that they can be in a position. Where the not gonNA ever miss a Paycheck Wall Street Journal reports Peter Navarro and Jared Kushner pushing for a payroll tax cut. Now while Larry Kudlow and Treasury Secretary Manucher calling for targeted measures aimed at helping workers without sick leave and businesses facing virus related disruption and latter camp payroll tax. Doesn't help anybody. Who is not getting paid? Because they're staying home because they're suddenly their tips have disappeared or anything else. But that's how I make Jason for making that case says so they tried. They did this back when when he was advising. President Obama. Wish it had done more. Maybe all of these things I mean. I still think that we're going to have a conversation about bailouts of industries. That hasn't even begun yet. But I think you're GONNA get targeted.