Nike, Berlin, New York discussed on The Peter Attia Drive
Still think it's you know. I think it was a tough call. I don't think it was obvious that you could ban them until they'd already been used enough to realize that. Oh wait this is real. This is a big advantage. By which time it was kind of too late to ban them. Because the thing is i mean as a guy who follows this stuff relatively closely. I'm used to press releases every year if not every day that promised to upend the sport and this is going to be the newest greatest latest best thing. It's so you ignore that stuff. And so even if nike had said hey by the way just a heads up to world athletics. We've got these shoes and they're crazy. Is it okay that we introduce them. All the ingredients are things that had been used before. So there is nothing like there is no like spring in it. Carbon-fiber plates had been used before including to set world records. So there is. Nothing is just nike the recipe right. They got it. So right that change the sport and in the long run things will settle back into parody. And we won't worry about it but there is a period of two thousand sixteen to two thousand nineteen where it's like if you didn't have the right shoes you probably weren't gonna win the race and that that is a little unfortunate. Where do you think this all fits into your prediction. Whatever your that was two thousand fourteen. I mean when do you think two hours will be broken on a legitimate road. Course with full-marathon rules that will constitute a world record. So that means it also has to be a marathon that ends and starts in the same place. it can't be a one and done downhill like boston or something like that. Do you revise your estimative. Whatever your you gave. Oh yeah for sure. No it's not gonna be twenty seventy five which incidentally was going to be one hundredth birthday so maybe that was subconsciously influencing me but the answer depends on what you define as legit. So is there something illegitimate about holding a marathon on a loop. Course i don't see it. I mean marathons. They used to be a big deal in madison square garden back in the late eighteen hundreds. There's nothing inherent about saying. You shouldn't run it in a circle. Yes we love the big city marathon experience and it brings people together. Yadda yadda yadda. But if you're trying to break the to our marathon. The goal is not to be inclusive. So there's things like that. Here's another thing they did. They said we don't have a start time. We're not starting saturday at seven. Am we're starting some time between friday at seven. Am and sunday at seven. Am or whatever and we're gonna look at the weather forecast and we're going to make a call that before like twelve hours before so we can get the absolute optima weather. Is that cheating or is that smart having a launch window. So there's a lot of things like that. The key thing. I think is tuckey thinks one is pacemaking. You can't have people jumping in halfway. That's the number one thing. They have to change for me to consider it like a legit sub two hour marathon. So you're going to have to attract like the second best runners in the world to go and to have them work together. So that know one group leading through half way and then the second group is gonna lead to thirty k. Or something and then they're going to drop out in the chosen understood alone so you can have to optimize that to do that. You're going to need a ton of money and more generally you're gonna need a ton of money to put on it. I would s. Nikki spent tens of millions of dollars on. Its breaking to race. So my twenty seventy five prediction did not bake any of that stuff into it. But now that we've had a sub two and now that the official world record is two. Oh one thirty nine of them remembering correctly within shouting distance of the two hour. I think some of those other factors may come together that someone tries to put together a breaking to style race that still falls within the bounds of legitimate. So i would say that could happen anytime in the next ten years wins. It can happen just like it's a race. We showed up to berlin or boston or new york or whatever and someone happens to run sub two. I think that's still a long way away because again the progress has not been in humanity. The progress has been in understanding where the fat on the bone is and cutting that away systematically. So if you take away all technology what is the difference between roger bannister and the fastest miler. Today again get rid of shoes. Get rid of all of that. As a species we have not evolved. So how much of that difference is technology. How much of it is training nutrition. Everything else you'd bake into it. I mean what what would be the buckets. You would classify as the improvements. And what is the. I don't even know what a mile record is today. My records three forty three. So he's it's come down sixteen seconds so for bannister. Today the biggest bucket barn is training banisters reputedly under reporter. There is this sort of whiff of amateurism. Admitting your training too hard was not done but even if you take with a grain of salt as reports sort of half an hour a day go out and do ten by four hundred meters. So we're talking like four five miles a day five six days a week. Maybe he was doing more than that sometimes but he was training at a level of very very light level and even one of his contemporaries was a meals that to pack. Who is a check runner. Who just a legend. Yeah absolutely like arguably the greatest distance runner ever exactly. He was starting to push the boundaries of how hard you can train. He was a guy who was going out and doing sixty four hundred instead of ten by four hundred and so it's not like nobody understood. That training worked but bannister versus today. It's training as the difference. Cinders may be a second a lap like the track quality. The quality of the spikes negligible and nutrition app for a mile..