Frank Motech, Los Angeles, San Diego discussed on Mottek on Money
As Frank Motech, new ratings on real estate in Los Angeles. Orange County, San Diego Ventura County and the inland empire with me. Now, Dr Frank note half the chief economist core logic which put out the latest report on home sales and home prices Frank. Thank you very much joining the here in the studio, and take it from the top tell us what's going on here. Yeah. What we found with that for the month of April. The meeting sales price rose quickly as we had seen like last year. So in LA prices were up about three percent in Orange County. They were up two point eight percent over the past year. Now, of course a year ago. Prices were rising, a lot more rapidly. We we're seeing seven eight percent increases. So clear moderation in price growth, the total number of home sales still down from what they were last April down about three percent. Then what are you seeing out in the Yellen empire? Well, we're, we're also continuing to see some rise in home prices. The median sales price was up about three point six percent. So that's in Riverside County. So. We're seeing prices rising, but much much more moderately compared to a year ago, or what about in San Diego in Ventura County is also included in your southern California report. San Diego is flat. So we're seeing some softness in the San Diego market already in Ventura County. See also flan, right? Yeah. That's right. Ventura was also flat in terms of median sales price and, and the total. Number sales still down a little bit from last April. The good news though, is that we saw a really good pick up and sales between March and April sales were up cross, so Cal by about eleven percent between March and April. And that's a much bigger jump than we normally see between March, and April, of course those of us have been doing this for awhile, including yourself. Frank, remember that it was a San Diego based on the SNP case Schiller, index at the start of the downturn. That was the first market that saw a downturn in prices, and, and we're seeing here, a flat price prices there in San Diego, any Canaries in the coal mine, based on what you're seeing here at the moment, we have some really great news in terms of mortgage rates mortgage. Traits have come down further in the latest survey from Freddie MAC, three point nine nine percent for thirty year fixed rate mortgages. That's the lowest in sixteen months. That's a shot in the arm for homebuyers. All right. So certainly low mortgage rates. In fact, lows who seen so far this year? Right in two thousand nineteen with that latest arena. Reading coming out to is fueling things here at the moment. Where do you see things go from here? Well with mortgage rates so much lower than they were a year ago. In fact, compared to one year ago mortgage rates are six tenths of a percentage point lower and with family, incomes up. Those are the two necessary ingredients keeps propelling home sales further. So I'm expecting that the June July numbers for home sales will actually turn out to be quite good. We also got the SNP case Schiller core logic report out this past week, showing home price appreciation is easing off, nationwide right, including in the Los Angeles area. So what do you see had as far as home price appreciation, or as the case may be? We saw. Dramatic slowdown in home price growth over the last nine to twelve months here in the LA area. Prices are up but they're only up about one to two percent compared to a year ago. That's much much slower than what the pace who were seeing last spring. But I do think now with mortgage rates so low, that's going to really help the promote sales, we're going to see a pickup in home price, growth later this year for LA birth. We're expecting about a four percent rise in home prices over the course of twenty nineteen certainly affordability being the big issue in this market low mortgage rates, a real blessing for people in the market here at the moment as well as for the mortgage folks, and for the realtors, what do you think we are here in this current housing cycle? Well, I do think we're pretty late in the cycle rate. Now we've already seen a lot of price growth from the trough. In fact, if we measure home price, growth in the LA market from the trough and prices back in two thousand twelve prices are up about eighty percent. So I think we're getting pretty late in the cycle. It really does help to have mortgage rates. Come down. The lowest level in sixteen months, that's really gonna help propel home-buying demand. What other changes these see coming up, perhaps, in, in Fannie and Freddie and some of the other important things that will be impacting real estate here in southern California. I tell you, it's a really interesting and exciting time back in, in Washington, DC area, especially among housing finance policy wants because we've got a new director, Mark labraya running. The Federal Housing finance agency, which is the conservator and the regulator for free, any mainframe MAC, and he's working very closely with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin to actually come up with path forward to get the GS's of conservative ship. You were just in town for a big conference in, in Santa Barbara. Tell us about some of the big takeaways there and your presentation. Yes, this was the annual retreat of the less real estate center from USC was a great event at the Biltmore and Santa Barbara faculty from USC presented as well as a whole. Cross sector of corporate sponsors of the real estate center, who were speaking about what the latest trends are in residential, and in a non-residential properties, any big takeaways, what struck you as far as residential and commercials concerned. What's really interesting is kind of the new innovation that's coming into play in terms of, sharing of space, for example, in the residential aside. These cold living new construction sites, which are really ways to try to add density and keep homes as affordable as possible. More roommates more roommates. Yes. Exactly. Yes, it Frank note half chief economist at core logic here in southern California Frank. Thank you very much joining us, our Frank discussion on mortgage rates and the real estate sane. Thanks for having me Frank, coming up to the season for property tax collections that are more straight ahead on Motech on money. The next.