Japan, United States, China discussed on Overnight re-air of day's programming
Debated our mutual friend, Elliot Cohen on whether or not the United States needs a grand strategy and Asia, and he pointed out these three variables instead a trained monkey can do Asia policy because of the three reference points, but there's a lot of interpretation in a lot of grey areas. Among those three reference points useful to keep our head. Nobody wants to choose if we asked countries to choose even Japan, we're not going to like the answer. Michael Green with CS I s China forces countries to choose they're not gonna like the answer, particularly with powerful players like, Japan or Korea, Australia. So it's useful. But it's hardly the end of the discussion in terms of our our strategy. I think in Scott referenced this as well, I think that the growing U S China trade friction, especially in the technology area has alerted. I'll talk about the bigger economies. Japan Korean Australia to the relative importance of the US market for them compared to the China market. And I you guys disagree. If if you if you like, but I think the consensus in the corporate boardrooms in Japan, Australia is and it's clear and FDI numbers the US market, the North American market is more important than China. China's where the growth is. And God knows they don't want to get out of it. And they'll play that market as best they can. But in terms of the survival of their companies at North America's more important, and again, they don't want to choose. But I think that reality I heard that a lot in Japan and Korea, and I think the Chinese have kind of force that I with things like fad. And problems Japan had with intellectual property rights mercantile. Behavior like embargoing, rare earth metal exports and so forth. So it wasn't like the US started. This thought process in the corporate boardrooms in Seoul and Tokyo and Sydney. So I think that may be a little bit. There's there's a growing recognition that if there is going to be more and more decoupling, if we're a high tech company or an automaker. The North American market, ultimately is more important and more reliable. That's slightly speculative. But that's certainly the tone. I'm picking up. It doesn't mean they want to choose. We should force them to choose. But that may be a shift in tone that I that I detect instead. But I mean, I'll just follow up on that. Because I think there's plenty of empirical evidence in terms of. Outward investment from Korea where the high point of their investment in China was really in the two thousands. And it was pretty significant. And especially in the last five years in the context. Of course, we've seen more Korean investment coming this direction. And specifically I would s que is heavily invested in the Chinese telecom sector, but they just opened an officer last week in Washington. And I think that you can see especially with the large conglomerates a different attitudes compared to five or ten years ago where they are placing their bets globally. One point on this. If I might just on the US side and. I think the the sense of urgency on the US side makes these kinds of consideration lists in significant. I mean, if you feel that you're in a in a very intense competition with China. The sensitivities of governments in Asia the hell with it. You know what? I mean, you're going to go ahead and do what you need to do from the point of view of of being in competition with China. I don't want us on being blunt on this, obviously, it would be dealt with in a different way. But I think the sensitivity is something that was very much in evidence in previous administrations. I'm not sure I see it so much now, I think there's a sense of and this gets into congress and been Congress's more outspoken in these things and others, and it's not everybody in congress for sure. But there are a lot of people in congress to do something now. And so in that sense of urgency. I think that to me that's the biggest change in two thousand eighteen is the sense of urgency and how to fix this problem. If I can just one more quick coda to these comments. This. Increasing emphasis on the importance of the North American market is being pushed because of policies in Beijing to of course, it's not it's not that it's sort of equal weight of the scales. There. They are finding it harder hunter, of course, new business in China. Thank you very much. I've got four lined up in order, and I'll get to y'all I neglected dimension. When we started the questions that part of my responsibility is the moderator is to get everybody out of here on time. For in return for you. Giving us your time. One forty five is when we're going to be done. So that gives us about twenty eight more minutes for your own planning, Bob manning. And then the after that the gentlemen, two seats away from Bob retired general Wallace creeks and then over here to the left where.