Treasury, Mccarthy, Chairman Powell discussed on Bloomberg Businessweek


Exactly. So that's made it harder. That's why we know in past times what a lot of the traders do is say, hey, listen, I'm not buying any treasury bills or bonds that have coupon payments, which is this semiannual interest that's coming around that crazy X day time. But now this XT range is so wide that it's kind of murky in the market, right? People are like, I don't know yet what debt to avoid, right? So maybe that will become more clear as a troublesome when we get a better date, you know? Maybe we'll get an update from the treasury of when that X date is going to be. If the wheels start coming off this car ahead of that X date, do we have any sense what's gonna break? Well, you know, after 2011, a lot of the parties that be that oversee the treasury market did a lot, they were like, we don't want to go through this again with having no idea. So they did a lot of backup plans. Like, what if like maybe treasury says, well, we'll delay the maturities a day. They can deal with that because you have to remember there's the repurchase agreement market that uses treasuries as collateral. So there's a lot of things that what if it couldn't even function. So there's been some backup plans, but even those officials say, but we're not sure. You know, we haven't been through this before. You hope the treasury market will function, but chairman Powell has also said, don't expect that the fed can swoop in and make all cure all evil that it would be repercussions on the economy for a long time. It may sting borrowing costs for years and years. Explain that to me, that if indeed we get that default. I mean, if somehow then there's a fixed quick fix after it Liz, would we still have that long-term impact? Well, the economy. That's what a lot of people say. Of course, we don't know till it happens, but you know some very smart people have said in various stories we've done that it could be cured very fast, but you have to think some big investors say, I might add that I need a little cushion because you know the U.S. has defaulted, right? So you would say there might be some premium added to yields, not just for a day or two. Maybe small, but as a baseline for a long time because it's totally different dynamic, you know? Yeah. What do we think on the Republican side? Are they, is there any cracks anywhere in the in the wall that maybe exposed here that may lead a small group of people to say, you know, we're not standing with McCarthy anymore? Well, not yet. There's a few strongholds member McCarthy took so many votes to get him in as speaker and he had to cut some deals and that's made it harder because they also can kind of, let's just say in light term, spike him as the speaker, they have that option. So he has a lot of kind of payback to do. Eric was saying that maybe McCarthy in the end will do the best for the country and say, you know, I'll follow my sword and you know, we'll make a bipartisan deal. You know, so it may go that way. But again, I think it comes down to markets getting ginned up. Stock selling off. And that being in the front of the local papers and things that policy makers may realize, oh, this is bad. And we'll come up with a deal. So it's just hard for me to believe that they won't. But one investor said to me, I don't know, never say never. You don't know. Okay, so why throughout all of this? And whatever may come yet, mark has been kind of sanguine. Everything seems like it's not quite registered that this could go awry. Well, I think there's a few things. One is, like we said, they can't kind of know yet exactly when we'll hit that wall. Number two, there's a lot of other problems, right? Inflation is going to be sticky, you know, not to minimize traders, but there's only so many things they can worry about at once, right? So the debt ceiling, they're kind of in far away. Yeah far away a little bit. We have seen U.S. credit default swaps, which is insurance against a default in the U.S.. They're not a huge product here, and they're not that liquid, but those rates have gone up. So there is a few people buying some hedges against a default, right? So I guess there's a little concern, but I think we need to get some more clarity when we could hit this wall for Marcus to really kind of like sell treasuries at that point and et cetera. Have we heard anything from the biggest holders of U.S. treasuries at this point? And I think about whether it's Japan, we always think about China. When you talk about maybe ultimately in the future, if we do get a default, they'll want more. In terms of holding them, but have we heard anything from global investors on that front? Well, from sovereign nations. Yeah, no, they haven't. I think they don't want to get in the middle of this fight. I'm sure if it gets down to the wire, you know, we've gone through this before. China's a little bit and they still hold a lot, but they're a little bit less of a player. U.S. has a lot more domestic investors than they ever had. So we're not getting into that political jockeying. And I don't think they would speak beforehand, but you do have private investors saying, like, I'm worried, like I think I had some story saying, oh, there's not gonna be too much volatility ahead and one investor emailed me. Liz, the debt ceiling, you know, so there are a lot of the private investors that are concerned that this could be a lot of havoc and even if we don't get a default, if it goes down to the wire and there's real concern, you might just see more selling of treasuries. Again, we have a backdrop of rates rising, inflation being sticky. There's a lot of concern out there anyway. That was Bloomberg news, chief correspondent for global macro markets, Liz McCormick, along with the editor of Bloomberg businessweek Joel Weber, Joel will be back a little bit later on. Coming up, Hewlett Packard Enterprise CEO Antonio neri on his company's strong quarter. You're listening to Bloomberg businessweek, this is Bloomberg. Bloomberg radio on demand and in your podcast feed. On the latest edition of the Bloomberg businessweek podcast, a conversation with former IBM CEO and chairman Jenny rometty on

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