TCU, Stetson Bennett, Georgia discussed on Bet The Board
Whether it's dewan Edwards or Kenny mcintosh, I think both run hard, both fall forward, both average more than 6 yards per rush against light boxes, which is what you'll see against TCU. In terms of stetson Bennett and George's passing attack, I think that's pretty interesting because they found a gear, I think none of us knew they actually had, right? They were playing from behind and Georgia was able to hit 8 passing plays of 20 plus yards. That was more than double their season long average. The receiver group aside from Ladd mcconkey and then obviously Darnell Washington as a pass catcher at tight end appears pretty healthy here. Where the real advantage I think for Georgia is and I don't think it's a situation where again, like stetson and Ben is getting crapped on here, but I don't think stetson Bennett sees much pressure. I mean, you just kind of look at what the dog's front does very good in past protection, top ten and schedule adjusted pressure rates surrendered. They moved my guy mims to right tackle and he's just kind of flourishing there right now and you look at TCU outside the top 100 and generating pressure. TCU outside the top 50 in creating havoc. So it's going to allow Georgia to be in these favorable down and distances. George is an offense top 15 in both early down EPA rate in the rate in which they pick up first down and early downs. TCU defensively outside the top 50 in both. So it just feels like a situation where Georgia could be just operating from real manageable situations where it's going to be runner pass, which makes it a little bit more difficult to defend, obviously. And then I think JJ McCarthy is a better talent than stetson Bennett, but I think Bennett's far more battle tested. He's been in bigger games and when you can rally your team in a championship setting against Nick Saban last year. We then do it again against Ohio State a week ago. I think that fear factor is gone. And the one area where I think if you go back to what we discussed last week, TCU's three three 5, we thought it would give Michigan a little bit of trouble based upon how JJ McCarthy fared against defenses that played more guys in their secondary. Now, I don't think any of us expected two pick 6s, but McCarthy splits were pretty alarming against defenses that played with 5 or more defensive backs on the field. It's the complete opposite for stetson Bennett. There's no drop off. In fact, when you look at defenses that use 5 DBs on the field like TCU does, then it's completion percentage, 8% higher. Bennett's rate of positive EPA plays increases 13 percent and somehow there's no dip in Bennett yards per pass attempts when seeing 5 defensive backs or more. So the key here for Georgia is Bennett can't let himself get fooled. He got away with a couple bad throws against Ohio State, Ohio State didn't really capitalize. But he has to kind of take what TCU gives him, find the open man. He's going to be operating with little to no pressure if the metrics are any indication. There isn't a reason to force a ball and make a mistake and give TCU life in a game. I don't think they probably should be in. And that's kind of where Georgia has some edges here, but I do think keeping an eye on Darnell Washington is. You know, you mentioned the Georgia receiving room and obviously health has played such a big role in rolling all of that. Lad Macon key, they're number one threat for most of the season dealing with some knee tendonitis, but to George's credit, we always talk about the rich getting richer and its Aryan Smith, yet to play more than 20 snaps in a game all season, making splash plays to help that Georgia passing attack show the big play potential. And meanwhile, Mitchell, his running mate there played a season high 49 snaps in the one of the last two games as well. So you're talking about Georgia, getting more playmakers out on the field while right when they need him. Brad, when you look at this TCU team defensively, I get the feeling they get largely understood. I know what the season long numbers suggest from a scoring defense standpoint. They're outside the top 50 and scoring defense, total defense yards per play rush defense and pass defense. But we've seen them step up when they've been asked. The Texas game is one of the first things that come to mind when they go in a hostile territory. And they look like the steel curtain and for stretches of that Michigan game when they needed to make big plays. Mainly for the first 30 minutes, it was the defense that raised their level of play in sparking them to a 21 6 halftime lead. When you try and assess TCU's full body of work defensively, does it feel like just a boomer bus type unit? It dies. Boom or bust, not only on a game by game basis, but during a game, it feels like obviously you gotta give them some credit. I mean, not only the pick 6 is, but they were able to get pressure more than I expected against Michigan. Dylan Horton played the game of his life as four sacks in the Michigan game, linebackers making plays, D winners made a bunch of plays in that game, but obviously bud Clark from the free safety position. The question I have and pains kind of hinted at it. I don't see how TCU holds up in the run game. I think they're gonna have to commit somebody else up front there. They don't have great size. They do have a 320 pound nose guard, but the two defensive ends aren't sitting there two 75 range. I don't see how they hold up at the point of attack. Do they have to bring in a guy like Mark Perry, the strong safety into the box, the run support. You guys mentioned Georgia getting healthier at wide receiver, just in time with maki banged up, Washington banged up. If they didn't have 80 Mitchell and Arian Smith stepping up last week for the first time, it felt like months, I'm not sure that they win that game, but the fact that they're healthy now, I think they can split out some more guys on that outside. And make tissue have to decide. If they're going to support that pass game for Georgia or creep a guy into the box, I just, I know they've had some moments, particularly Texas game stands out because we were involved heavily on that game and to me that's more of the outlier that they held Texas to 28 rushing yards. Since that game, last war weeks, TCU is allowing nearly 200 rushing yards per game. That is not national title contender, at least screams it to me. And even a Michigan team that had that big chunk play early with Donovan Edwards and the stats look good there, but obviously Michigan was behind it and really couldn't lean on their ground game after their behind multiple scores for a majority of that game. So if TCU doesn't get out to a big lead, I don't see the pathway for their defense. I think it's more bust in this, at least in this matchup. And you mentioned the Georgia ground game. I mean, a trio of backs all with 500 plus rushing yards this year, the only team in the FBS to accomplish such a feat with Kenny mcintosh dewan Edwards and Kendall Milton. So Payne, I'm gonna put your feet to the fire here.