Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, United States discussed on Bloomberg Best

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This isn't a bunch of hot air, the questionably street legal idea is to use to SpaceX thrusters in place of the backseats. I'm Andrew O'day, Bloomberg radio from the Bloomberg interactive brokers studio, this is Bloomberg best the Federal Reserve could place interest rates on hold through March or even longer. That's the signal from the minutes of last month's meeting a fed policymakers and Ed Bloomberg's David Rubenstein sat down with the chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell financial markets, really beginning in the fourth quarter. Got more volatile and seemed to be pricing in a more pessimistic outlook. Which is I mentioned the it seems to be rooted in concerns about slowing growth in a related concern over the ongoing trade negotiations. So if but if you look at the incoming data right through the end of the year and into the beginning of this year. You don't really see any evidence of a slowdown. And so we're we're in a situation where we have factors pointing in different directions. By the way, this is not uncommon. This is this is actually something that happens, not infrequently. And when we when we when we had that what we do is. We we apply sort of risk management principles. In other words, we're not just concerned about the baseline case. We're thinking about what are the risks? And we're we're we're using our tools to address those risks. So in that case, what does it mean? It means I there is no pre-set pass for for race there. Really? Isn't there never is particularly as it now second as I mentioned, it gives us the opportunity to be patient and watch and see what what does evolve. Or are we going to see the more positive view that most forecasters have of this year or are we going to see slowing global growth, and we're going to see that affect you. Because if it does then I can assure you, we a common thing for the economy to behave in ways that are not exactly as we expect. And when it happens, we can flexibly and quickly move policy. We can do soon as insignificantly as well if that's appropriate. So we'll always use or tools to try to sustain this expansion. And keep the labor market, strong and finishing. Currently are the fed is projecting. The US economy is gonna grow in two thousand nine hundred ninety two point three percent. I believe that's your number. It previously was a little bit higher. Two point five percent. I think last year you've lowered correct? And are you going to lower it again because of the government shutdown? A second affect the economy. Do your view. Let me say first there is no official fed projection. With two point three percent was the median of seventeen participants. So they were affable and half below that will during the year, not infrequently. In fact, typically when we submit new projections every quarter the projection for change. I mean, it's very difficult to forecast the economy because that level of precision, and so we'll take into account financial conditions, which we've seen and we'll also lower a rate pass and trying to have monetary policy. Offset weakness before it even happens, the shutdown. What's the impact on the economy and your view in? In the short term shut the government shutdowns don't last very long. They have typically not left much of a Mark on the economy, which isn't to say that there's plenty of personal hardship that people undergo, but if the aggregate level the economy, generally does not reflect much damage from shut down a longer shutdown. Is something we haven't had if we have an extended shutdown than I do think that that would show up in the data. Pretty clearly, and I would always say, particularly from our standpoint one of the agencies that shutdown as commerce, which has the bureau economic analysis in the census bureau, and some of the pretty important data that we did is published by them. It would not be published including retail sales and GDP and a bunch of other things that are coming up this month. So we would we would have a less clear picture into the economy. If it were to go on much longer, you don't gather your information you rely on other agencies to give you information in most cases, we're getting information from the bureau of labor standards, and we do a handful of data series that we collect ourselves. And so today, let's talk about the economy going forward. We were close to the longest periods of expansion since World War Two, and we could break that record new see anything on the rise. And that would make it likely we go into a recession in two thousand nineteen. I don't see anything. That suggests that the possibility of a recession and near-term is it all elevated recessions are are most often caused by two things. One is inflation. That is is high enough that the fed has to hit the bricks. We don't see that more more common recently in the last several cycles. It's really been a matter of mounting financial imbalances by which I mean asset bubbles the housing bubble the dot com bubble or just excessive levers if you saw in in some prime mortgage area were those those things have it. We don't see that either. So we don't see the two most basic recent causes of recessions, we don't see those risks. So I would say the possibility is not elevated at the moment. So you don't see any worry, you're not worrying about anything close to a recession. I don't see a recession. I would say that. If you asked me, what am I worried about? I would say the US economies solid as I mentioned there's good momentum going into this year. The principal worry, I would have is is really global growth. If you look at Asia look at Europe, you're seeing slowing growth. And the question will be how much does that affect us? It's it's a tightly integrated global economy and global financial markets, and we will feel that I'm talking about inflation from one of them Fed's main jobs to worry about inflation. What do you think things flation rate is likely to be for two thousand nineteen? I think it's gonna be right around two percent. We I think sort of a capital asset that we inherited from chairman Volcker in Greenspan is strongly anchored inflation expectations. So what that means is that when the economy's really weak inflation doesn't go down very much, and when you is really strong. It doesn't go up very much. So inflation tends to be rooted.

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