Theresa May, Brussels, Katie discussed on Coffee House Shots
Hello and welcome t- coffeehouse shorts. Spectators day politics cost. I'm about helping I'm joined by Katie was and James Saif. Now, we have sad news for all those skiing fans in Westminster Furby recess has been canceled. Katie why though several theories for this? But I think ultimately will look incredibly bad for 'em and potentially government ministers to go off on various snow filled holidays, even tropical as we even holidays in, you know, the Beechy parts of England flossy of leadership, I'm visions just mentioned all the holidays all of these bad at time Kreis approaching Brexit crisis. And no decision has been made parliament is paralyzed. And this no clear way out of the moment. So I think decision was made that this just wasn't going to be a good look what still needs to be confirmed is if MB is going to have anything to do in that week. So we know that the week before recess on the thirty February may. If a deal hasn't been passed by them, she needs to go and make a statement to the house, but a next steps on the next day, that'd be a Valentine's Day celebration of sorts where MB's can perhaps have a debate about that motion at in their own ideas. And and then from that on that could be votes, some people do this could be the second meaningful vote. Now the next week theory empties natural empowerment, but is not entirely clear what they're going to be having to do. We know there's lots of legislation that needs to be done before the leaves. And there's a feeling that because they say behind the timetable a lot that needs to be done in that week. But at the moment, the Commons business is very lacking. Because parliament is paralyzed and is complete gridlock. So I've had one minutes to say to me that is very well caps Ling, the recess, but as I NIA point during that if Ambi entity they think is going to be as bad. Look if envy's just mulling around parliament having points debate. So we might have somewhat going on. On various bills. But the other thing says took that Ambi might just be on a one line whip. If you're one line with lots of MP's will probably stay in that constituencies. We'll go skiing the hats. James given that a lot of the decisions made about Brexit over the past few weeks in particular have been to do with Tory party unity. This isn't going to engender a spirit of generosity from Tory impeached. Whips is bobbing Casey's right? It would have completely absurd. From piece to go on holiday at this point. It's I mean under two just now before we start recording a hundred was buying the drama of Christmas. Ancient on a break point. Everyone was like it's Christmas and Brexit's until March twenty nine as Brexit gets closer and closer and closer. And because palman is as culpable for the lack of progresses the executive now, it would have looked completely absurd. I think piece to go on a break. And I think everyone knows you know, unless you had a holiday of a lifetime book, he probably going to accept that. This is the way it is. This could be bad news for Jeremy Corbyn spoke in February says is a great time to get out on your lot -ment. Plant potatoes. Katie he was busy yesterday having talks with Theresa May. How did those go so dependent he speak to you got a different account of how this meeting when it was a delayed meeting many respects because Kuban had refused for over week to meet to resume. He did so off to the Caroline Spelman. Nodia amendment was passed which had political power saying no deal should be taken off the table. And when they met Kuban was flanked by shameless moon. His rhetoric communications carry Murphy will soon the leaders office, and then his chief whip and in that meeting from a labor labor spokesperson at the they talked about the customs union, and Labor's Brexit position, which is to move to some form of customs union. And they argue that Theresa May very interested in the details of this and us lots of questions on the Downing Street signed they say yes to resume. I did ask questions about Jeremy Cubans Brexit position. But have red lines remain the same. She's very clear on the fat. You need to be able to free trade deals at any form of Brexit package. So I think at the moment there is still a deadlock. It doesn't sound like they really agreed on ways to get deal for. I think what is quite interesting is that it does seem at the moment. At least as Jeremy cool been is that considering ways to guess at Brexit deal? Freedom Papp's, how lay votes could get that upset some because they obviously want him to go for towards the second f random. I think the fact is in that room talking about Labor's position on customs. She's he is very much of a side of of that in this his position to raise. My literally does have a difficult decision to make because it does seem from that meeting. From the words coming from the labor side that were she to shift her Brexit position to close that line with the labor position by having some form accustomed she, and she would be able to get labor votes and might be away Fru. But we know that the customer is very toxic to lots of the people in her party. James sounds as those talks have been quite beneficial three. As a me in one cent one big benefit threes. Made. From those talks was Jeremy Corbyn came out after his attack the backstop. I mean that is hugely helpful. He said he didn't like the fact it was one side. And he didn't like the fact that there was no clear exit mechanism to the UK that really helps because that enabled her to say to Brussels. It's not just these people you think crazies in my party don't lie the backstop that the Basta piper. So let's get realistic about I mean, it's fascinating to you saying about trees pushing on the details of this customs union because it's always the rose wedding of a name. Does it smell sweet g you end up with a customer arrangement whether UK's left the common commercial policy so trees can technically claim the UK has an independent trade policy and Lynn FOX golfing. Do a trade deal with of very heavily services dependent academies, like Singapore, Switzerland. But at the same time, the customs arrangement, you are in looks and feels offering the customs union to anyone in the money manufacturing. And so I think that he's a fascinating question. Whether that is enough. I also think that interesting point the Katie was writing on the on coffeehouse night is do we end up in situation where they're all beginning to be some to Rambis we didn't say, well, look if a customs union get through the backstop would accustomed to be spot on a backstop because you can get even opponent customs union, you can get out of as easier to even a backstop last night. I was having voted for the Brady amendment. But against the agreement and opinion was split round the table in this question, some of them do take this view, but an beside the customs, you might be a way of getting out of it. But others still think that enorm- free-trade Brexit, which they would be a customs union membership is was it was still not a good idea to have your price to pay of one of the thing that on Jeremy Kuban is wealthy could win didn't get out of that. If Jerry had agreed to meet rebel should also meeting vote even be able to setup. I mean, we've had lots of pictures of Jerry gains attend. He demanded to stand outside the front door of number ten do apply to the BBC rather than sitting in a studio by choosing to go now off when may have actually got some good news in that she won that on the Brady amendment. He has got a lot less out of this meeting when he could have done, Katie. What are we expecting to see in the next few days in terms of Theresa May's talks with Brussels? Well, we're expecting trees may to go to Brussels at some point. And at the moment, she has an fool many ours to reopen the negotiations so you could have that point coming. I think all the music from Brussels say fi it's not particularly for septic to the Brady amendment. And we've seen ficus Donald Trump's tweet saying we now know what parliament doesn't want. We want us to tell you what you d what anyone implement thinks that even the Dayton link. They agreed. That actually on Tuesday night. They did show Brussels. What they wanted. It might be that that's not on the menu. But they have said we want to have the reward agreement with the backstop replaced. So I think I think on that side. I think there's probably there is a slight frustration that they have shown something parliament will vote for. But Brussels up moment saying that they don't hit. That is interesting because we also have reports they date back to last week when June ker parents said the the price of reopen of replacing the backstop changing the backstop would be to pivot to customers union. So there are some he worried that actually Theresa May could get back and start opening talks. But the cable have to give something, and that's partly weather's idea comes through that by changing the Licko declaration to customs or accustoms arrangement sans. And looks a lot like a customer union. You might be able to change some things on the backs to make them palatable. I think one vents quite interesting is there were some MP's in. The conservative ought to you didn't vote for the Brady amendment. And most of them are those campaigning hard for a second referendum. But there was one member of the ER g he didn't even though the hell did. And that was Anne Marie Morris and she's given into but she said the reason that she didn't vote full the Brady, and it was that she worried it would create a west at ration-. But to raise may go back to Brussels reopen the agreement and come back with some foam accustoms union, and that is a nightmare because she knows that it with the numbers in the Commons as they that would probably pass and she thinks that she kill Brexit. So I think there is some government. He think that Theresa May will be able to reopen talks despite the music in the next few days, but they're just a little bit worried about what she'll have to give to do that usual Kalana the customs us, actually what revealing because again is one of these things were everything brussel says can't be correct. Which is if you if it is possible to change the backstop of UK, make some changes changes position on the customs union. That would indicate the would withdraw agreement. He's not closed and sealed with kind of holy wax, in the way that people are trying to suggest it does suggest that there is still hasn't yet been ratified. And so there is actually scope to change. You wanna go down as a string were pulling on? Because you cannot say we've drawed agreement is, you know, holy writ. Which cannot be touched when you himself suggesting that you could change the backstop if you case position on the customs union changed. Thank you, James. And thank you, Katie. And it is the last few hours of our amazing subscriber ofo, are you get twelve issues of the spectator for twelve pounds and that free twenty pounds. John Lewis voucher said before you fall your tax return. Make sure you go spectator chaotic UK four slash Faucher to make today. Happy day feel want it. Thanks for listening and do join us again tomorrow.