Model Talk: The Chance Of Chaos Increases - burst 2


Model. Talk the New Hampshire results are now priced into the model. And we've gotten some limited polling also. Yesterday Thursday the possibility that nobody wins an outright majority of pledged delegates in the Democratic primary briefly overtook sanders to become the likeliest outcome in the model currently sanders. And nobody are tied at thirty seven percent. Likelihood Biden is down to a thirteen percent. Chance of winning a majority Bloomberg is up to eight percent. Buddha judge is four percent and Warren is at two percent. Sunni what happened? Why has the likelihood that no one wins? A majority increased over the past few days. Well you kind of have a interesting result in New Hampshire which is reflected also and I think the polls we've seen since Hampshire on the one hand and this is getting away from like like I think narrative in terms of the way. The election was covered. I think Bernie should've gotten credit as the headline for winning New Hampshire Right. But you peel back a little bit deeper. You say Okay Bernie got twenty five point seven percent of the vote. I think it was actually a little lower than we expected based on his polls in a state that should have been one of his stronger state. So Bernie Wine. Brie doesn't look particularly strong on the other hand. Everything behind Bernie is a total mess. The two candidates best in New Hampshire. Apart from Bernie Namie people to Chechen amy. Clever Shar are far behind the pace in national polls. Meanwhile Elizabeth Warren who had the opportunity to build a broader coalition and Joe Biden wound up in the single digits in New Hampshire. Meanwhile you have Michael Bloomberg continuing to rise in polls he's actually leading now some polls of a couple of Super Tuesday states around fifteen percent in national polls. He seems likely to get at least a fairly decent chunk of delegates on Super Tuesday and so and so that also we'd make a contested convention. Majority more likely so it's going really well from the standpoint of of chaos. I guess And we should say like you. Know Bernie has a very very plausible case to win the nomination by himself with the majority right as thirty seven percent chance and he is doing spectacularly well but he's like doing way better than anyone else and there are a lot of ways that things could break in his favor including voters. I don't want a contested convention. I want I'd rather take Bernie. Even he's not my first choice but still I mean this is like this is on the more chaotic side and by the way one more thing to nobody among the major candidates has dropped out yet right. Typically you might expect for there to be dropouts after this. You might expect. Frankly you know Biden her. Warren might have dropped out if they were so disappointing in New Hampshire or club shower after finishing fifth place in Iowa a neighboring state for her might have dropped out and said she stayed in. He's probably saying well good. I stated now have third place a little bit of momentum. So you've had some minor.

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