Listen: United States, Fed And Goldman Sachs discussed on Biz 1190 Overnight featuring Bloomberg Radio
"So Christopher Brank. And he's CEO TV Ameritrade Asia who still with us from our studio in Singapore. Chris so we put together a chart GDP go for our clients that that tells the story, but we just heard in terms of the mixed signals. We're getting an accord inflation sending a bit of a sign that could push the fed maybe took cut rates going forward. Are you on board with is that the fed is going to do next? Now, I think I'm in the opposite camp, but it's all based on the same information. So they are considering if inflation is not coming into the market that there might be no reason no ammunition for the fed to give the reason the rate hike rates, but I think current data shows the you look fed funds futures that we basically have less than ten percent chance that they would actually hike rates here in twenty nineteen. That's what the current conditions. Now. A lot of this is based on do we start to get these deals done with China US trade negotiations. Do we see something happened with Brexit? So this is back to where our customers are cautiously optimistic in terms of what we're going to see going forward into the rest of the twenty nineteen. So if we don't get such a slowdown as some people are calling for and we start to see some of these geopolitical issues subside, I do think we do have some upside in the economy and upside, but income and spending and types of we continue to see strong jobs numbers out of the US. If we see some. Wage growth. We actually see some inflation in the US economy in order to give some amunition for the fed to actually want to raise rates at least one time here in two thousand nineteen. Yeah. Well, I'll obviously Evanson and Graham wanna lean into the software story. I want to show you the factory data which came in the United States in New York. This is a Sirri year low, and I want to talk to Larry Summers says he describes the US economy as brittle on the next recession could turn out to be a deep one. Where do you stand on recession alter risk? I mean, this is a three year low on the on the US New York New York at index. Churn. I think a big part is is going to continue to be what happens with corporate earnings. What do we see here that you have political landscape? Definitely we need to see those numbers that improve an order for us to get away from that recession word, and maybe just back to like there's going to be some type of cyclical slowdown. Our customers have been continually cautiously optimistic at TD Ameritrade here in Singapore. In terms of what positions they are looking to add and kind of the things that area most concern around affects and currency and terms of wage and labor costs. Yeah. So those are the things that I think as we go through this corporate earnings in terms of what to look for in terms of overall sentiment in terms of what positions you may want to rotate out of. Chris speaking of earnings and speaking of sentiment, we heard earlier from the Goldman Sachs, CEO and chairman David Solomon. Let's take a listen. No question that percents in the early part of the quarter was quite muted. I've said before corporations and to be more thoughtful and take a longer time to ship their sentiments while there's there's no question some issue in activity that will come out of corporations, you know, certainly flowed. I'd say that gets back to moving at a normal pace relatively quickly. That was the chairman of Goldman Sachs, Chris how do you position to around what you've seen initially from some of the financials in the United States? And given the fact that the recession proof plays the names on the s&p five hundred are becoming very expensive. That's what the folks that signed for Bernstein are pointing to. Sure. No. I think you're a big part of the sentiment of what's going on with the financials. We saw huge numbers out of J P Morgan last week, we saw city and Goldman last night in terms of like they beat on earnings per share. But the revenues were flat or way down in Goldman's case. So interesting to see what goes on with Bank of America's numbers here tonight. But a big part of what goes on with the overall sentiment for the earning sectors. What goes on in the financials? So our customers we'll be paying close attention to that. What what we do see or the rest of the week a kind of a short week with the holiday in the US with Easter. But we do have forty nine companies reporting on S and P five hundred this week. So I think after this week we will get a little bit better picture and terms of where we're headed with the overall kind of earnings for this quarter. Right. Chris. Let's dig into the earnings story. You've put a chart into the library into the GDP. Maybe this is Goldman Sachs S and P five hundred basket has got fifty stocks in it would you have got low labor costs as a proportion of their costs. And they say this is where you probably want to be positioned. The blue line is the performance is not a threat of salt that you would concur with. Yes. I think you'll early on your only through about six or seven percent of the companies and S and P five hundred that is one of the major concerns in terms of what we're hearing in the earnings call so far as what's going on with labor costs and terms of our overall kind of earnings and revenue going forward said definitely something to pay close attention to as we get into this earning season. Okay. Thanks for being with us. That is Krista Bracken CEO TD Ameritrade in Asia. Great to have you with."