Iowa, Harris And Elizabeth Warren discussed on FiveThirtyEight Politics


It or getting handicapping here right. I mean biden ahead in the polls but not by as much as he has nationally. I mean to me if i actually had to forecast the chance of candy winning iowa then then biden and elizabeth warren would both be pretty far up there because by all accounts warren. It does have a very good organization in iowa. Her favorability ratings are as good as biden's and she again resembled. A type of candidate tends to win iowa along a lot of dimensions so i would think that she's a a co favorite. You know bernie. Sanders has been lagging a bit in iowa polls. The kind of obvious bearish reputation of that is that when people get closer look they get more excited about warner canada who are newer where but he did virtually went last time he has a good organization there and so. It's gonna be good. Stay for bernie to mayor. Pete has a lot of ketchups at also resemble some from iowa winners and kind of a jimmy carter kind of way you know he's from the mid west he someone who if he's gonna have any path to the nomination i think has to run through iowa an harris. I mean there was some reporting this weekend that she's actually devoting more time to iowa now. She is the one of the front runners that you think would have the toughest his time in iowa but the flip side did that i mean we get this expectations game thing whenever we talk about this if we're part of media were kind of right part of the game right which is kind kind of always a little bit annoying but there is something where if harris where to win iowa although i think she's likely abuse evidence other three or four then it means you can kind of win on unfriendly a quote unquote turf right if she wins iowa then like she's probably gonna win the nomination. If burner warren or buddha chech- win iowa then you'll probably have a comeback from the establishment in south carolina or whatever i think i'm i'm curious about in this particular election. When we've we've heard a lot from the democratic side side about people wanting to elect a democrat who's electable and coming from a a super white state. I'm kind of curious about iowans wins democratic iowans you know whether or not they're thinking about their independent or conservative compatriots right whether or not their caucus vote is more tied to well could we could we swing people from trump to whomever the democratic nominee is like i'm kind of curious if that super white environment of iowa and frankly other midwestern states but iowa in particular if that's a big factor this year i mean we've. We've just spent a lot of time saying well. They tend to be activists liberal and that would be. I think a war in kind of vote but i'm sort of interested in i i haven't you know full disclosure taken us a deep dive into some of the if there's any data on how iowans have answered that specific electability question i don't know but i think that the the white environment is interesting this year in particular won't it stood it stands out a little bit in that context that harris even after her big first debate it sort of seemed to have a ceiling on her support in iowa and nationally where it sort of makes. You wonder a little bit how much people are ars saying to themselves. <hes> rightly or wrongly who's gonna vote for the black woman exactly right but i don't know maybe maybe 'cause i get what you're saying being made about harris being an awkward fit fry while at the same time she has a lot of similarities with obama in terms of her message in terms of our approach of the campaign in terms of being a non white candidate end. Maybe the counter myself. Maybe that white liberal democratic demographic in iowa will want want to embrace a harris if she if she makes some sort of you know big coup in iowa. They'll wanna make a statement like they did. Nominate obama isn't nominating being warren making a statement. I mean that's the problem. I think worrying gets people more excited and i think excitement goes a long way especially if you couple that with the organization in iowa i think warns warns more of a a thinker campaign. Apparatus currently is a little more. I it's more than iowa type of campaign like i will voters love to talk about how informed they are right like i've seen so many candidates and this is how many t._v. ads. I've seen like i literally followed a family around for a couple of days in iowa last election and it was just like logging how much time they spent with the campaign anyway. Warren has this whole you can go read every single one for plans in depth apps on media even if they're not like actually

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