Brian Fitzpatrick, Democrats, Pennsylvania discussed on John Batchelor

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Ania one otherwise known as bucks county from Bristol to Doyles town to quakertown I grew up in the summertime in bucks county. It was in my youth in the middle of the twentieth century farms just being industrialized with great big highways moving through it. But still it had the feel very much of very far outside of New York. Now, it's a commuting distance from New York, Trenton is very easy and close by the train station. New hope is also there. So there's a lot of trendy nece at the edges of of bucks county. It's well to do I underline Laura a very good evening to you the race. Here is for is for the professional and veteran Brian Fitzpatrick, who's the incumbent Republican. He's challenged by Scott Wallace. However, you've sent me a link political atlas link the takes us inside this not just about them. But about how the district is polling on issues right now. It's rated lean d for two polls. I see and toss up for one poll how to read this as a political scientist. What does this tell us about the rest of the nation as well? Good evening to you. Good evening, John. Thanks for having me on tonight. This is such an interesting district because the cook political report rates it as a tossup seat. The university of Virginia's crystal ball rates this as a tossup seat by every measure that we know Brian Fitzpatrick is an incredibly sort of well received and well liked incumbent Republican and in any other year. I think most people would assume this district was going to fall his way because he has been somebody who has tried to really represent his district not necessarily his national party. But what is true in the numbers in this amazing political atlas website that the UVA's center for politics? And it says has created is that you can see and snapshot fashion how he's. Being dragged down by other factors kind of within his party the first one being that was in his suburban district that Trump approval rating is twenty nine percent. So that is a good, you know, sort of twelve to thirteen percent below the national average for President Trump. And there's no doubt that sort of the disapproval of Trump is dragging on Brian Fitzpatrick's, reelect possibilities. I'm looking at the main issues on social media. This is statewide not just the first district. President Trump dominates thirty-three percent. Second, of course is healthcare and supreme court healthcare favors, the Democrats. If I understand this election talking about ObamaCare has suddenly turned into a positive because the Republicans fumbled it in the first year of the president's term supreme court. That looks like a mixed bag because of the cavenaugh scandal and how it ended. So I can see that there's pull and push. But to remind the rest of the nation who did not grow up in Pennsylvania. This is a county bucks county that entirely reason New York Times every day. Okay. Fine. If it's in Pennsylvania, it might as well be in Manhattan. They're very well. Informed, quite sophisticated. Heavy media all the time. And they they process themselves as part of the Bosnian wash corridor. So it makes sense that they're sensitive to Trump. Now the democratic candidate. Here's Scott Wallace. He then has very little to do other than to emphasize the Trump's in every headline is that the campaign, Laura. Well, I think so certainly I would imagine that he is trying to create distance from Brian Fitzpatrick on the issues around healthcare or say around guns. But again, I mean one of the things that is true is that fits Patrick has been incredibly moderate very reasonable. He's actually sort of one of the members of congress whose engaged in essentially, what's called the problem solvers caucus. So he is somebody who is kind of modeled this notion of we should be civil work across the aisle, find places where we can connect. And I think what's so interesting about this contest is how this contest goes on election night. We'll tell us a great deal about how a lot of the other suburban districts in the country will go and so. This is certainly one to watch. And it's one in the east, you know, poll closing time in Pennsylvania believe is eight o'clock Virginia will close at seven. But we will have a sense of really where this is going when we look at a seat like this on election night. And we look at a seat like Barbara Comstock in Virginia, this is Pennsylvania where the supreme court redistricting between the last election and this election this district in a slightly different configuration was plus nine for Barack Obama and eight plus two for Barack Obama and twelve and plus two for Hillary Clinton in sixteen. So with a Republican as Representative. So it's a perfect target for the Democrats if they're to move the needle back to their side of the majority, Laura let's go to the larger map the conventional wisdom last week when we talk was that the. Democrats take the house somewhere between twenty three and forty seats pickup which would give them majority and the Republicans hold the Senate possibly a two pickup has anything moved in the last week. I don't think. So I mean there is this question about whether or not the Texas race between beta Aurora and incumbent Senator Ted Cruz is essentially, narrowing and becoming more competitive. There was a poll out today that suggested that the distance between them was more like three percentage points and not six percentage points. I think that's going to be very much a function of turnout. And then there's also this question of how much immigration versus healthcare really plays in sort of the important states. The states like North Dakota where the incumbent democrat Heidi Heitkamp is trying to secure re-election where Joe mansion in West Virginia is trying to secure his reelection. Those are the states where really this question of will the president's desire to focus on the caravan and illegal immigration and asylum seekers or will the Democrats desire to focus on the need to protect preexisting conditions and support the Affordable Care Act. That's what will matter. Laura Brown is a political scientists he's also professor George Washington University. And we're looking at a website political hyphen atlas dot com with a great deal of detail. I mean, it's just granular to the end degrees. So if you're a geek like me, you can stare at this on election night the district. We've been talking about his first Pennsylvania Scott Wallace who was raised enormous amount of money compared to his incumbents. He's raised thirteen million dollars. He has two million on hand as opposed to Brian Fitzpatrick who's raised only three million dollars in. Comparison that used to be a lot of money in the first district, and he only has less than half a million dollars on the hand in hand. So that this is an example of how the Democrats have overwhelmed the Republicans.

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