Reporter, Editor, Huffpost discussed on Left, Right & Center

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Of the mouse and our special guest this week is Arielle Edwards levy reporter and pulling editor at HuffPost it is the first week of November and this week The New York Times made a lot of liberals nervous new high quality battleground state polls from the times paint a picture of a close twenty twenty election sending a different message from the national polling we see more often with big leads for Joe Biden or Elizabeth Warren Bernie Sanders part of the message here is that trumps electoral college advantage appears to be widening that is whatever trends are happening in the suburbs they continue to weaken Republicans with part of their traditional base that may be taken away votes in Texas or even more votes in California but in Pennsylvania Michigan Wisconsin those effects aren't as important things remain close and you could conceivably see Donald Trump be reelected while losing the popular vote by an even wider margin that he lost last time we're gonna talk about that later today and how you should think about polls so far in advance of election so there were elections on Tuesday in a few states we talk about twenty nineteen elections before turn to twenty twenty and Republicans did hold on to the governorship in Mississippi by about six points but in Kentucky Republican incumbent Matt Bevin lost despite a last minute assist from president trump who rallied for him in the state any Bashir won that election Kentucky succeeding were other Democrats have failed in two ways he held on the part of the ancestral democratic base an Appalachian eastern Kentucky which is otherwise swung hard toward Republicans any made inroads in once strongly Republican suburbs of Louisville and Cincinnati the suburbs also delivered for Democrats in Virginia giving the party control of both chambers of the state legislature and therefore full control of that state's government for the first time in decades US appeal what lessons do you see in these results are as Democrats look to next year so a couple things jump out at first is this is a a pretty important is for the Democrats right you have a really important shift in Virginia now with the tri factor that's gonna change the politics in the policies that come out of that state and we compare Virginia Kentucky this move in the suburbs that you're describing really is a strong pattern across the different states I was in there also is a similar move happening in rural counties to in the other direction and I'm sure we'll talk about that in a moment the other thing that you say that you know there's a grain of salt right it's a twenty nineteen is off your election it's hard to extrapolate national trends so it's this isn't quite the same as a precursor to twenty eighteen but it is that a strong result for the Democrats rich when you look at Virginia Democrats it felt like we're having a rough year in Virginia you know you have the the black face scandal with the governor and the other black face scandal with the Attorney General and rape accusations against the lieutenant governor and some Democrats in that legislature and the governor staking out a position on abortion that Republicans thought was very extreme and what outrage the median voter none of that seems to stop the steady forward March Virginia becoming a police state yes so this is a marches right word it's a trend that's been going on for a long time has to do with demographic changes in the state state coming better educated more suburban more diverse so the whole divide we're seeing now between suburbs and more rural working class voters it's something I've been going on for quite a long time and trump is just xcelerated it and he's his conduct is repellent to a lot of of former Republicans in the suburbs specially women the question and we'll I guess dresses in at a little bit is whether he can do what he did in twenty sixteen draw a a broadly at our our radioactive released easy to make radio active opponent and take off enough to the edge in the in the suburbs to just barely get over the top again Arielle is the national story that simple as you know Republicans keep doing worse in especially inner suburbs and Democrats keep doing worse and rural areas and if that is the story is that an even trade between the two parties I mean I think that is in large part what we are seeing across the country and you know I think that can obscure that there will always be things happening in a particular race in a particular level I mean you saw that in Kentucky where they were certainly considerations that were not national politics obviously that's a gubernatorial race where it's a little bit of a different story in terms of how much partisanship is going to influence people's votes but you are seeing these broader demographic trends of just these areas sorting themselves out more and more and you know we'll see whether that ends up evening out and his favorite either rich the governors are real notes were some specific local factors Matt Bevin was not the best like person including institutionally in the Republican Party and Kentucky he tried to defeat Mitch McConnell in a primary few years ago so after this close resulting loss by about five thousand votes he's basically said he's not going to concede he thinks there were regularities he wants like the canvas maybes gonna contest the election first of all what do you like he lost what do you make them coming out and saying that and also I mean what do you make of the response the Republican Party in Kentucky which has been mostly to sort of ignore him and say well you lost the five thousand votes is not a a lot you know in the scheme of things but in that recount every campus in Surrey a scenario is huge and the chance of overturning that are extremely minimal it's basically impossible so I I don't like the that this trend we saw Stacey Abrams do it Georgia as well you lost please be gracious about it's very tough things personally it's hard to take but go away and don't tell us for years afterwards how you were truly the winner when clearly weren't yes bill I I as I hear Democrats worrying about you know what's is is trump going to admit he lost if he loses the twenty twenty election in this you know I I have not been very weird about that for reasons that are are playing out on the ground a Kentucky which is you know you can say I didn't lose I didn't lose and that can be irrelevant if other people won't go along with it and it looks to me here you know the that partly I think you know as as rich as noting five thousand votes as a lot of it was five hundred votes we might see a different situation but also it's it's peril to trump in that you have an executive who the other institutional elements the party never really wanted in charge and there's a part of them that I'm sure is just you know please to be done with that yeah I mean I think I think that's a hopeful lesson I hope you're right taking the the model of of Kentucky I mean look here's the here's the challenge in some ways right that day that decision making factor here is gonna be the rest of the institutional right what the party that's right the party doesn't go along with it then it just becomes sort of a slightly embarrassing yep stands on the part of the losing candidate and it goes away in our democracy proceeds into marks the only works if both sides recognize the legitimacy of the results right and so I think I I think in that sense you return are right what I worry about is when we talk about the impeachment scenarios you know there there's such a strong incentive at the moment for the institutional power brokers of the Republican Party to serve fall in line with the president that that's where I would put more concerned right presents gonna do what he's gonna do we always has but at what point does the rest of the party decide you know what the rules are the rules we have a we have other people we can put forward in an electoral contest and we don't need to keep following the strain well let's talk about impeachment I think that's a that's a good time for a stock item peach meant at rich there's there's an article in The New York Times this week about an emerging defense that house Republicans are talking about I as it becomes clear that there was some sort of quid pro quo here around Ukraine ambassador Gordon Sunland has changed his mind he refreshed his recollection and said oh yeah I did I did tell the Ukrainians that they would have to make this public statement about investigating the bidens in order to get the release the military aid and so Republicans are talking about the possibility of saying essentially that these guys were freelancing that yes somehow message got to the Ukrainians that there was this quid pro quo that but maybe truck never authorized him to send that message maybe didn't want to want to after all trump's specifically denied to senator Ron Johnson that he had proposed a quid pro quo and especially in the case of Rudy Giuliani maybe he was even acting for his own independent financial interests yet all these business interests in Ukraine maybe he was using his position close to the president bush's own agenda and that's where this quid pro quo idea came from and the president is innocent and I think in that context it's worth considering a tweet that Rudy Giuliani said this week that looks out really like defense the present but I'm not sure it is he says the investigation I conducted concerning twenty sixteen Ukrainian collusion corruption was done solely as a defense attorney to defend my client against false charges on quote so is it a viable defense of the president to basically throw Rudy Giuliani under the boss and say you know whatever these people did the president did not authorize them to do that because it certainly sounds like Giuliani is going to say no I did this and in my capacity as the president's agents yes I say a couple things one yeah there's a glimmer of an opening for this defense because most people we've heard from so far I guess really all almost all the people we've heard from so far had what trump was thinking in second or third hand because they were at the end insiders which is you know more Bolton Mulvaney Giuliani and it's entirely possible that Giuliani and and import respects was freelancing I think that would be the have to do more with his business dealings in Ukraine so it's just hard to believe that that these guys got this cooked up this idea on on their own in house has the defense eight get with held you know did towards someone to and trump mentions on the call talked to Rudy which again is an indication that he in route here are on the on the same board on this so a month ago when it was still pretty early I had a theory that in my defense I offer tentatively that maybe that was the intention the quid pro quo and it it never really got to the train so it's clear at least it got to the Ukrainians and I still I know you're skeptics out by so that I think the defense Republicans and it'll end up falling back on is they got the money and they did make a statement about investigations well so the Seville this is the this is the sideshow Bob defense you know the the you know attempted murder there's no there's no Nobel Prize for attempted chemistry right but that in this instance that's a joke like.

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