Bahrain follows UAE to normalise ties with Israel
Friday president trump announced that Bahrain would recognize Israel and the two nations would normalize relations. This comes just weeks after a similar move from the United, Arab Emirates what to make of it. All I'm joined again by Zanny Minton beddoes and we slaughter and Ian Bremmer in put this in context for us what does this mean? Why did it happen? What does it mean? Well two big things that people need to come to terms with the first. Is that Israel Palestine is considered close to the most important conflict in the region. It is for the Palestinians when you talk to the Maradas with the Saudis, the Bahrainis, the Kuwaitis you'll talk to you about their concerns about Iran they'll talk to you about diversification away from fossil fuels and the difficulties that they'll talk to you about domestic radicalism, all of these sorts of things. And so as a consequence, you no longer have a veto on if you don't get peace with Israel Palestine, you can't move on geopolitics. The second point is the united. States had long attempted to be seen as some kind of honest broker between Israel and Palestine when we're anything but Israel's our best ally in the region, the Palestinians particularly agree with we have problems with and so you know it's interesting trump's first trip as president outside the United States was to Saudi Arabia and then to Israel and those are the two places where he has the best personal relations and that's where they really drove. So yeah, you had the effort to. Talk about peace with Israel and Palestine where the Palestinians weren't even engage a big conference in. Bahrain. Now, you've got big announcements in relation. I think especially from you and I talking to jared through this that was kind of the game all along I I'm not in any way surprised by this. And we. A friend of mine WHO's from the Middle East very knowledgeable about the says what's really going on here this is this is the post American Middle East that is countries like. Israel UA Bahrain Saudi Arabia saying we're GONNA make our own alliances to defend ourselves against the the real threat that we feel as he was saying, which is Iran and we know the Americans aren't going going to help us. So we need we need to band together. Is that part of the dynamic. Afraid, I think that is right that again Obama wanted out of the Middle East. If you if you think about the direct line from his refusal to engage in Syria. And that's actually an area where he his policies and trump's have been closer than than other areas. But I also think you have to think about this in the context of us. Domestic Politics Donald Trump. Has Two modes he can be the fearmongering president or he can be the dealmaking president who delivers and if we're thinking about October surprises up for this election, what he would dearly love is to actually have a treaty or agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which really would redraw the map of the Middle East and the conventional wisdom is the Saudis aren't ready but obviously, the UAE in Bahrain are stalking horses and and Bahrain would not have been able to do this without Saudi approval. So it's probably a low chance, but there is a real chance at least of a framework agreement in which Saudi Arabian Israel would would normalize relations in return for something more something bigger on the Palestinian sought.