India passes Brazil to become the second worst-hit country by the pandemic with more than 4.2 million cases

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India is now surpassing Brazil as Thie. Second worst Corona virus hit country with cases topping 4.2 million In contrast, New York State is showing progress with the rate of positive test staying below 1% for 30 straight days for more K C. B s news anchor Dan Mitchinson spoke with Dr Amesh Ayala, senior scholar, Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security Doctor. What's happened in India? What do you think is contributing to this case, Serge? You have to remember that social distancing is the way we keep cases from spreading and social distancing is a luxury in many parts of the world in a place that has a population of over a billion people where you have people that live in close quarters and multigenerational household where There's a lot of use of mass transit. It's just going to be very hard to keep a virus that spreads this efficiently from moving through your population. So to me, it's not surprising what's happening in India. I think it's uh this is going to be something that we see in the developing world. This is going to be very hard to control. Well. The prime minister did order all businesses shut down earlier this year, didn't he when this started, but I mean, it hit the economy so hard that they've had to start re opening a lot of these businesses. Again. Yes, you can't. You cannot completely shut down people's productivity and not have consequences. So it's not surprising that in places where they don't have a lot of accumulated wealth, But there's not a lot of saving that people cannot. Tolerate a stay at home order for that long of a period of time and what the goal really should be is not necessarily economic shutdown and stay at home orders but targeted public health intervention, testing, tracing and isolating You need to have health infrastructure to be able to do that. And it's clear that some countries do not have it. And even in countries that do like United states, we still can't really executed that. Well. Yeah, you can tell a billion 1.3 billion people to stay at home. How does the mortality rate they'll compare with the U. S. I think it's hard to know exactly what we don't have full, full data capture there. But one of the things that the mortality rate you have to look at it. What is the rate of death of individuals who were hospitalized there? It's going to be higher than in the United States in terms of if you if you're treated their how effective are the treatment? How much access to critical care do you have? And we know that there are places in the world that don't have the same. Adeptness medical care as his other parts, so you will probably see higher rates of death for those who get hospitalized. However, the total population that was a little bit more complicated because that will affect that will be impacted by the age of the population of morbid conditions of the population. But I do suspect we will see the deaths rise. Teo Teo high levels in the developing world because of the lack of access to health care, and the fact that this is going to go through their populations in away unabated by any kind of social distance.

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