A highlight from Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast 6/18/21--Jury/Weekend Preview

Automatic TRANSCRIPT

A day ahead of time on doing this show and every so often it catches up to me i was. I was telling a friend yesterday on wednesday. Because it's thursday. When i'm talking even those friday show but i was saying. Hey happy fry up tomorrow tomorrow thursday but to my friday and it's now your friday if you're listening to me in the morning so happy to be with you guys here on this friday or buddies in the jury full jury slate back. F james and scott. We'll talk a little bit about A little bit of potpourri of of everything Have a conversation with scott. Kind of about there is a somebody The director of sportsbook at circa in vegas said something about sports books offering a two one on phil mickelson to win the the. us open. So i wanted to talk with scott just about you know recency bias but also you know name recognition and how that sometimes is baked into how athletes or horses or anything is better and i always think it's such a fascinating topic to watch and this year's preakness stakes. I thought was a really really interesting example of it. Because you had the whole medina thing and we you know you had the derby winner but you had the positive and you had all of this publicity and discussion around it and so it was so interesting to see kind of how it was gonna play. Because i thought just cold on paper. I thought medina looked like he should be a really favorite. I mean he finished in you know. I don't wanna say a photo with the other top three horses but the top four in that derby were you know separated from everybody else and he was the only one of those four back in the preakness. In ron bauer you know was a nice new shooter and etc but then you had to account for okay. How many people are going to you know. Say a the medication thing was a big issue and now the horse can't run with that and data and so it's always interesting to me to see kind of how those things play out. And the example i bring up with scott in the other direction is mandolin who had been very good but did have a step back in his prep and that recency. Everybody saw i mean he went off at twenty seven to one you. There was some horses in there. That i don't think it ever run close to as good as manned loon who were similar or around his price. The soup and sandwiches kind of the one that comes to mind. I forget who was you know but a super sandwiches like twenty five to one man louis. Twenty seven or something like that but like you know what did soup and sandwich do compared to mandolin a lot of different levels. And i don't think much but soup and sandwiches coming in a second place. Finish the florida. Derby man louis coming off kind of a stinker and so you get people the jump ship. I mean that that last past performance line carry so much weight so often it's It's really fascinating to watch and it. It makes sense right. It is the most recent information we have on said horse at least published information on said horse and i think that's where a lot of people are going to go. I think santa anita this weekend. They have A handful of steaks. I think it's four Some cowbridge steaks and then the final race on the card is the san juan capistrano. This is closing week. sam nita. If i'm not mistaken there was a couple articles about you. Know there's news about strategy possibly making sales or investments part of its thing than aidan butler came out and said you know. None of those are tied to the race tracks. Racetrax aren't going anywhere. They talked about some of the investments. They've made and maryland and florida and you know just kind of wanted to counter those rumors but it is closing weekend though right. Yeah and so obviously Couple of weeks. It looks alaminos and then over to delmar but as far as the recency bias thing you have the san. Juan capistrano is mile and three quarter race They i think they start at the top of the hill. This is this might be the closest thing. You'll get a full hill race. Even though they go around and other lap. After that. But what. I wanted to get to was. You have acclimate. Who's nine to five on the morning. Line your nine to five morning line. Favorite who last race was nine to one in the charlie. Whittingham a nine and a half to one to be honest You had read king. Who was three two one now. Read king had lost award jerry loss to let lori man in a little allowance starter race in his previous start even though he made a good run at the end And then prior to that had been running against some of the best stir forces around are clo- tarnaud on the breeders cup You know one. The del mar handicap made that big move against united and so forth. He's five to two on the morning. Line acclimate who just did finish ahead of him but was nine to one. That day is nine to five. Acclimate certainly a controlling speed. But acclimate has been controlling speed in his last four races and in eight of his last nine races. Oddly enough the one time he wasn't he ran a pretty. Decent race actually made the lead midstretch Somebody ran off in front of him in the turf. Classic lashed or back in january. But acclimate almost stole the charlie wittingham last time out and i think that from a recency bias. You can make a couple arguments. You can say okay acclimates. you know. he's getting better. I mean he's seven so he to me he kind of is what he is. I would make the argument the last time he just ran a big race. They went fast early on. He was clear and he stayed on. If you remember you can't see it in the past performances because you know you have a winner. Who won the race. Acclimate second red king third fourth was united. Who was the big huge favorite and united and read king third and fourth early on and they just didn't you know they were never able to catch.

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