ECB, Stephen Carroll, Leann Garands discussed on Bloomberg Daybreak Europe


Headquarters in London, I'm Stephen Carroll with this Bloomberg radio business flash well after the terrible month of August for bonds we are seeing a further sell off across the bond markets today as European trading continues. Let's take a look first though at the two year treasury yields back up over three and a half percent the yield on ten years upper basis point this morning that is bringing it back to the level that I've seen in 2007 briefly hit it yesterday but pushing further north on those yields this morning the ten year still inverted three spot 20 to figure there up a basis point as well across the European space the ten year bund yield is 5 basis points higher this morning one spot 59, the ten year BTP 7 basis points higher, three spot 96, whereas the Spanish ten year yield also 5 and a half basis points higher two spot 79 is the number there on the currency markets the dollar continuing to play out that story of strength this of course has been getting those poker signals from the central banks Loretta master from the Cleveland fair saying that she expects rates to go above 4% and to hold them there. The dollar spot index three tenths of 1% higher this morning and that's having a knock on effect across currency markets elsewhere the Japanese yen now a 139 42 close to those 24 year lows. The Euro syllable of parity but only just by a whisker Jan four tens of 1% this morning whereas the pound on cable three tenths lower one 1587 the number for you there. On the equity market zero stocks 50 futures 8 tenths of 1% lower heading towards the start of the session there in just over 11 minutes time. The S&P E mini futures are half of 1% lower this morning. That's seeing some of those losses being paired as we move later in the morning here in Europe in Asia, firmly in negative territory on the equity markets though. The MSCI specific index down 1.9% and the Caspian sold down 2.3% as well at the close there. On the commodity markets, oil prices a little bit lower after sell off, we had yesterday WTI 6 ten to 1% lower at just over $89 a barrel. That's your Bloomberg radio business flash. Now here's leann garands with more on today's top stories, Leigh Anne. Steven, thank you. Britain's will face the biggest squeeze on living standards in a century unless the government delivers tens of billions of pounds of additional support that, according to the resolution foundation, have found real disposable incomes will fall 10% over two years as soaring energy bills drive inflation well into double digits. The think tankers urging the next government to raise welfare benefits in line with inflation in October, the research piles pressure on whoever is named the next leader of the Conservative Party and the next prime minister, and that will happen on Wednesday. Now, the Chinese city of Chengdu is locked down, it's 21 million residents forbidding them to leave their homes and less than special circumstances. It's the biggest city to be locked down sun Shanghai's bruising two month crisis earlier this year as China does continue its COVID zero battle, the country's vast western region has until now been largely untouched by coronavirus and crypto dot com the digital currency app that was actually fronted by Matt Damon in a Super Bowl TV advert is seeking the return of $7.2 million at accidentally transferred to a woman in Melbourne, the firm discovered during an audit back in December that had made an error in processing a refund 7 months earlier according to court documents and account number had been accidentally entered into the payment amount fields. Well, global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake. Powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is Bloomberg Stephen. Well. That's unfortunate. Well, unfortunately, it's depending on which side of that is actually wrong. I was just thinking to myself, oh, she kept quiet clearly. She didn't tell anybody. Caught up with her mother. It did indeed. But one thing is some of this money has been spent on surprisingly, including on a 1.35 1 million 5 bedroom property in suburban Melbourne, but now the courts are saying that house has to be sold and the money has to be paid back, but it's expected to return to court next month. I think this is a really interesting story. So what happens? What would I do if I got $7.2 million? I mean, I could guess. At the very honest person. Indeed, indeed. And doesn't like to indulge at all and anything. Leon garrin, thank you very much for that. Let's get back to our conversation about the markets and we have pricing in a jumbo rate hike from the ECB next week, a 125 point basis points of tightening expected by October. This is the fed's largest master says it'll be necessary to hike right above 4% and to hold them there. We've got Sarah hue and chief economist for America's Europe at standard chartered in studio with us. Good morning to you, Sarah. Good morning. Gilles soaring again this morning. We're seeing it across the European bond space. How are you reading the selloff in bonds? I think markets are finally acknowledging that the central banks mean business and that there are some further jumbo rate hikes coming along and coming along quite soon. I think this may be a recognition as well that or worry that inflation is going to be tougher to deal with. We are seeing easing commodity prices, but now the focus is switching very much to what's happening to wages what's happening to the true fundamentals of inflation. Markets don't really like what they see. The ECB still not as saying that the rate path of the ECB has to be steady. What are you expecting in terms of the decision from the ECB? Is it a jumbo rate hike 75 basis points? Ali markets have pretty much priced that in a we're still ambivalent our forecast is 50 basis points, but we probably need to see some pushback over the next few days from the ECB if there is any doubt over that 75 basis points that the market is pricing in. 50 basis points already from a starting point of only 0.5% on the refuge is a big move. And I think that some policy makers will be very concerned about doing extra jumbo rate hikes from a low starting point. What sort of impact is this going to this rapid run up in rates going to have on financing conditions and how quickly is the impact going to be felt on an economy which is already facing real headwinds from high energy prices. So I'm not convinced that it's a done deal that we'll get that 75 basis points. So what do you see is then being the trajectory for rights in the Euro area, kind of aside from this particular meeting, how high do you think rates will go for the ECB? We're expecting at least 2% now 2% in the great scheme of things when you have inflation 8 9 10% doesn't look particularly tight on the policy fund. Of the ECB, it's quite high. It's quite high and especially the pace at which we're expecting the peak rate to be reached is a very rapid compared to what's happened in previous tightening cycles. So that to us looks most likely given that we do see headline inflation coming somewhat lower in a perhaps equally rapid fashion as energy prices do eventually ease. I think the worry for the European Central Bank is what's happening to wages and that right from the start of the tightening cycle was their concern that minimum wage hikes are already being increased particularly in Germany and that elsewhere wages may also rise. The data are not particularly helpful on that front. We are only getting the impact we only get to the results with a quite a strong delay. Yeah, absolutely, that process has started very much in the UK, but it's still to come a lot of economists think for Europe, the kind of pressures on putting wages up. Absolutely. And in the UK, we see widespread strikes with can see the divergence between what the private sector is willing to tolerate in terms of higher wage increases versus what the public sector is willing to tolerate and strike action. It looks set to intensify over the winter months, particularly if we do get into the 1518 20% inflation, which could well be the case if there is no cap on energy prices. Let's see what this trust or whoever is the next prime minister decides to do when they come in. They're worried is that there's been very little preparation and planning so far on dealing with the energy crisis. So we could well have this perfect storm of strike action very high inflation. And if the weather is bad as well, then that's that would be the capital. Can the next prime minister whoever it is you say, let's trust that he most likely actually make much of a difference given all of the negative economic signals we're looking at at this stage for the UK. It's a decision about who you support, you can target support to the poorest households or you can go for a broader VAT cut, for example, or you can come to an agreement with the energy companies whereby you flatten

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