China, United States, Beijing discussed on BTV Simulcast
Very much for that. And about now US trade negotiators are in Beijing for a new round of trade talks with both sides aiming to meet you do before the ninety day truce ends in March chief Asia economics correspondent Karin joins us from Hong Kong. And it we've written a lovely piece seven things that will benchmark success of failure. What is the key thing for you? Well, I think one of the key things will be if there's actually progresses to further talks. Remember, as you mentioned, we have some really mid level talks in Beijing today. But if it goes to the next level where we get the likes of lighthizer, Lou. Mnuchin and others involved. Then Republic going to be probably an indication that leads the overall trade talks are making some kind of broadly on track. Conversely, of course, if we come out of its week of talks. Or these two days of Tokyo to Beijing with suggestions are progresses kind of run into a roadblock. And they're not really making any headway on some of the key issues such as protection of IP or market access or anything else. Well, then I guess it would certainly be a setback for overall sentiment market, a columnist at the moment are expecting things back some progress at least ahead of the March one deadline. And the devil will be as always in the diesel. And we'll keep you up to speed with all the developments with the team. Our chief economics correspondent still with us is carry Craig executive director, global market strategist at Jp Morgan, Australia, Kerry, thank you for standing by you in Melbourne, and I put the triple law for small banks and big bags in the library. Because this is the policy response to the data. We'll talk about trade in a moment. The triple or the biggest that we've seen since the start of last year. Now if that if triple ours got caught last year it did nothing to save Chinese equities. What does this policy moves say to you? Really it's is more about a signaling effect that China is willing to to keep the momentum going in the economy at the expense of perhaps some of the deliver djing there had been going through. So the fact that they are willing to to cut the triple outright again in earlier than we had anticipated that they're not using that function so more does jury lower the cost of money in the economy just goes to prove that they're willing to try and maintain that sort of six six and a half base in growth target as much as they can. And as long as those trade negotiations reached the resolution, which we think they eventually will China will continue to offer stimulus measures. They haven't gone as far as our right interest rate cuts. There's more they could do, but they're going to find balancing act of trying to stimulate the economy, but they oversee direct the money into the right areas and avoid some of those bubbles hats happened with massive stimulus in the past. Carey as we try and get our heads around the damage that's being done. We were hearing earlier from the chief economist at UBS Paul Donovan, he thought that the extent of economic damage. That's being done was still not significant not meaningful is how he described that. We put together a chart we put this in our Bloomberg is well for our clients GT, go telling a story of continued slow down of a continued slowdown and ongoing weakness when it comes to Chinese manufacturing. How quick deterioration do you expect? And what does it mean for investments for you? But we had always talked about the the economic impact of the trade tariffs have been introduced as being relatively minor in the scheme of things that it was always about the business sentiment being damaged that was going to have the greater impact. And it's come with the legs. So we've seen the numbers roll often in China. We've seen the numbers in the US come down as well. So it's having an impact there. And so we are getting delayed effect come through. And I think that they can continue to be software. Stater until we do get something more about a resolution, or at least some positive news coming out and the longer that this link is just the list chanceries of saying a significant rebound in these numbers have row based cases that they do find a resolution that there is heart, and the fact that they might see an extension to that ninety ceasefire they put in place those negotiations go on as a lot of the economic data from other parts of the world has the US starts to pick out those things about a global recession. Do start to fight off in the numbers come up a little bit on the back of that. Because. It is about those expert orientated economies in China that are really being affected the most on that that doesn't mean that we would look at at China and be a little more cautious and our locations right now, we think that there has been some value created throughout China as well as Taiwan Korea as saying some of the upside, shall we say resolution there, but again with that big question being not yet answered I think it's a little bit too early to say that we could see significant movements. Carrie, if we do get a significant shift in the trade dial where is the biggest I suppose risk on is currency. Let's say in the AUSSIE dollar is it an Asian equities. Or would it be? Let's say in American equities. Where's the biggest upside if there is a shift? I think it was a shift. It does come through the oil does come through the Asian equities. I mean, they have been pretty badly beaten up the middle part of two thousand eighteen fit a little bit of December of this year. But they have gone through that period of pretty painful falls in prices, given that trade retard come through. And I think the most upside should we get that resolution those valuations challenging it all we need to see a pretty significant shift in that trade retard wouldn't just need to be an into the status quo. I think you would need to see more of actually potentially at backtracking of some of those measures and concessions, not just by China. But also by the US as well to see those export numbers really pick up from those economies. If you look at the trade data the volumes did surge the last couple of months from Agia, and the general below that was his front writing before those tariffs came through. Kerry. Can I get you to weigh in on oil prices, we had Goldman Sachs cutting back on their forecasts for twenty and nineteen. Where's your head? When it comes to crude. I think you could see crew go a little bit from here. We should set siblings of demand and supply balance coming back through, but you know, as we hit that they're very light light cycle period. Typically, that's the point where oil does perform very well because you're having supplies demand side. So we don't expect to shoot rebound and the oil price from here it sits between fifty five and sixty five dollars throughout the rest of the year. There was an uptick from where it has been cracks a little bit of inflation pressure as relatively know enough to actually support consumption around the world, it's not expecting a huge upside from oil, but I would suggest that these people will balance comes back through. As.