Cincinnati, Kenneth Walker, Michigan discussed on Bet The Board

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Nobody. If you look at some of their win probability stuff, right? Their current, and they're below a 6 win team. So I don't know what they're looking at that would make wake for schedule substantially more difficult than Cincinnati. I don't know. Very weird there. I'm hoping Cincinnati just for the sake of allowing a G 5 team. Because if a G 5 team can't get in there, like Cincinnati. What are we doing? Then what are we doing? You have a at this point I would think a name brand coach won that could potentially fill one of the large Big Ten vacancy jobs if they were to open. You have Desmond Ritter who I think is got a decent namesake. He's been there a long time. And you have two defenders. That are potentially first round banks. So I don't know what more Cincinnati would need to do. Obviously, are you going to blot some teams? You haven't looked good the last two weeks. But in terms of a G 5 program with cachet in both performance on the field, if they can't get in here, I don't really see a scenario where any G 5 is ever getting in. Yeah, I'm kind of right there with you, especially when you consider even what Cincinnati did last year. I mean, going toe to toe with George and of course, different circumstances in that bowl game. They showed that they had least raised their level of play. I know the rosters aren't the exact same. I'm not saying Cincinnati would hold up against Georgia or Alabama, but if you're not gonna give the little guy a seat at the table, I mean, may as well go to a group of 5 playoff completely separate from the college football playoff and fracture the FPS further because there's no doubt these teams aren't playing the same sport other than collecting paydays from some of the major media companies. Of course, as we've talked about, we'll see these numbers continue to move and fortunately for anybody that has strong opinions. You can bet all of these yes and no is available on FanDuel. Make sure when you go through, you try and figure out some of the numbers and where you can glean a little bit of value. As we talked about Georgia, and overwhelming favorite at one to 20 to get into the college football playoff, no other team higher than minus one 65, and that's also Alabama and Ohio State. What's interesting about Alabama minus one 65, if you believe the tide have a chance to get in, you're probably better off waiting to bet them on the money line in the SEC title game against the Georgia bulldog. So take advantage of those prices, use them. Manipulate the markets and put yourself in the best position to make a few bucks. Onto the games, my friend should we talk about some of the marquee mattress we highlighted or the lack thereof that we have on the docket this weekend? Yeah, let's do it. All right, let's go to West Lafayette where it is the aforementioned Michigan state Spartans installed as a modest road favorite laying three against the boilermakers of FanDuel sports. But total in this game sits at 54 it is up a touch from the open. This will be the first time Michigan state rules into a football game and 8 no since they made the college football playoff led by Connor cook, a game pain that you and I were in attendance for when Alabama absolutely obliterated them in Dallas. Michigan state's defense. Well, they rank last in the Big Ten in past defense and we'll be trying to stop a Purdue passing attack that ranks third in the conference and throwing a football. That's a matchup we'll get to in a moment. When you look at Purdue, three and two in home games versus ranked opponents under coach brahm that does include a win against then number two, Ohio State back in 2018, again the boilers won as a double digit underdog, 49 to 20. Pain when we begin to unpack what this Michigan state offense is, there's no doubt it's led by Kenneth walker. He was as good as advertised against Michigan, but I begin to wonder how much was what Michigan state did offensively versus poor run fills and pad linebacking play that we saw from the wolverines last weekend. It was not good. And again, we kind of outline that. I love Aidan Hutchinson. I just don't know what the rest of Michigan's defense was in metrically. They'd kind of pushed around in the trenches at times. When I look at this one, and I just kind of think about how Peyton Thorne's trending and played the last few games. Then obviously, how Kenneth walker's playing in it's at a Heisman level, which is stunning to me. You think about what wake forge could be with him. And then you have a situation with jaylen naylor leaving the Michigan game and not returning and then being seen on the sideline with his wrist and hand and fingers in a cast. All of that kind of creates a situation where produced focus has to be stopping Kenneth walker in the ground game. That's it. You're selling out to make sure the ground game stopped. Produce tackling has to be better. I remember watching the Wisconsin game a few weeks back and I was like, my gosh, they're just missing tackles left and right and I went back last night and looked at like ten miss tackles in that game. And that's important against Kenneth walker. He was an absolute animal, as you mentioned against Michigan. Obviously, 5 touchdowns, that's what everyone wants to talk about, but he averaged 7 yards after contact last week as he broke 13 tackles. A guy was like a human pinball. So that is the one key, not just stopping the run but being better tacklers for perdue. And I think it's an interesting defensive line. You have 5 of the top 6 guys returning, then they added two power 5 transfers to the D line. You have a big name player in George Karl. This, I think he's obviously a first round pick at this point. But I wouldn't call D line dominant by any stretch. They're about national average in defense of line yards and stuff, right? But as a unit, top 25 and EPA per rush allowed and rushing success rate allowed defensively their styles changed a little bit over the years where it's more aggressive, the linebackers can fill and they can play downhill. I think the other interesting thing to factor is Purdue played a very heavy play action passing offense last week in Nebraska. Now, the final score was quite misleading when you have four interceptions and a defensive touchdown Purdue actually only had a 7% endgame win probability. But the point is Adrian Martinez throws with play action nearly 40% of the time. And now Purdue faces a very heavy play action offense with Peyton Thorne who throws with play action about 40% of the time. So I don't think it shocks produced system here. The focus last week was to keep your eyes disciplined. That will be the same approach this week. And so I think that helps a little bit. When you look at Peyton thorn, elite quarterback, with play action. And probably not a starting power 5 quarterback when he doesn't throw with play action just based upon the numbers. They're staggering. Thorn right now, one 37 passer rating with play action, ten to the 15 touchdowns are off play action, just one of the 6 picks are off play action. If you look at non play action, throws 79 passer rating his yards per pass attempt dip 45% in the mistakes just.

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